LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 166391

<snip>
Jen:
> If Voldemort really plans for Dumbledore to die, he's not taking
> advantage of his inside man who is trusted by Dumbledore and has
> the advantage of surprise.
> Also, Voldemort didn't ask Snape  to help Draco with the
> cabinents, or even tell him about the plan.  Voldemort essentially
> placed a double-agent at Hogwarts and is cutting him out of the
> loop at the most crucial time.
<snip>
> Therefore, the only legitimate plot I see to kill Dumbledore is
> the one hatched by Narcissa and sealed by Snape with the UV.  And
> if Snapetook the UV never intending to kill Dumbledore, but die
> himself, then unfortunately his plan went awry.<snip>
> And that means the only plan Voldemort *appears* to have in HBP is
> to punish Lucius and eventually, as Harry discovers as the story
> moves along, kill all three Malfoys.  A plan that has nothing to
> do with his real enemies, Dumbledore and Harry.
<snip>

Dana:
I agree with Jen, LV's plan for Draco leaves too much room for Draco
to fail because he doesn't even give Draco orders how to perform his
task. Draco has to figure it out on his own. I do not believe LV
would let it all depend on the chance that Draco might or might not
be successful to bring DEs into the castle or even the chance
that Draco might pull thru and kill DD himself. We also seem to
forget that it was Narcissa who made the plan in OotP possible,
and that it technically wasn't Lucius' fault the plan did not succeed.
Sure Lucius is at fault to not swoop in and swoop out by letting
himself be thwarted by 6 teenagers, but it was Snape who caused
the plan to fail indefinitely.  More importantly, he thwarted LV's plan
to stay out of sight until he was holding all the cards.

Everything was working fine, DD stood with his back against the
wall, losing more and more ground not only with the MoM but also
with the general public and with it, Harry was losing valuable
support. DD only had a handful of people to assist him in his fight
against LV. The only thing LV would have to do is pull DD's (or
Harry's) life support, one by one to seal the deal and get his hands
on the prophecy to figure out how to deal with Harry himself.

So who do you think he was angrier with Lucius or Snape? It indeed
doesn't seem Snape was filled in on the plan not even at the last
moment(I do not mean he didn't know Draco's task, I believe he did
and if indeed it was LV's plan to get Snape committed then Snape
would have to know this part, and I am sure Snape wasn't lying that
he knew about it).

I do think it would not be to farfetched to think LV ordered
Narcissa to get Snape committed and it seems that he prepared Snape
himself to believe he would be asked to do it anyway. The UV might
have been Narcissa's addition to secure Snape's commitment entirely,
but I would not be surprised if it was LV's plan all along and
Narcissa was to get Snape to commit to it.

It would indeed secure a limitation on Snape's actions and would
make it absolutely sure that when Draco moves, Snape will move.
Bella's tagalong might have been a big bonus for Narcissa because
apparently it helped a great deal to move things along. It made
Snape feel confident he was in control even if the Black Widow
(Narcissa) was closing in on him. Her scent was apparently
irresistible and he got caught. Now the only thing needed was
keeping Draco away from him as much as possible to ensure
he would be the one that will have to perform the task in the
end just as he (Snape) himself thought would be expected of him.

Now the only thing needed was to help Draco move along and who says
Draco did not get help at the last minute. Maybe LV sent Wormtail in
to help Draco get a move on and to make sure Draco would move the
moment LV wanted him to move. LV would not need all his DEs to know
he wanted to get to Trelawney at the same time, they just helped
Draco cause the necessary distraction and keep anyone on DD's side
too busy with that. Wormtail with someone else could execute the
Trelawney issue but I am still feel pretty sure DD outsmarted LV
there (or I at least hope he did)

With Snape secure, LV's plans (plural) would indeed unfold like he
planned without the possibility for Snape to thwart him again and
without Snape in the know, DD has to base every next move LV will be
going to make, on guesswork. Sure this says nothing about Snape's
true loyalties or his intent when he took the UV and, as I said before, I
have no problem with the idea that Snape did have some noble
intention when he took it or that he really believed he could
control the UV and its effects on him.

I am even willing to believe Snape never wanted to be the one to
finish the job and that the DADA curse made sure he did not get what
he wanted. I do believe he never told DD about the UV because he
thought he could handle it, it seems to be a nasty habit Snape has
(Quirrell book1, Shrieking Shack book3, missing polyjuice herbs
book4), I also still believe DD had a suspicion about LV's plans for
Snape and I still think the argument in the forest was an attempt of
DD to pull Snape out.

If we look at who benefits from the way things worked out then one
can easily conclude that LV is the only one that truly benefits and
so why would it be a stretch to think he planned it. I think it
would even be underestimating LV's capabilities to think he would
just leave his main objective to rule the world and take out any
obstacle that could prevent him to get there, just because he wants
a holiday and have some fun with tormenting some of his minions.

He has been unable to secure his quest for ultimate power for 16
years after he attempted to take out Harry the first time. It took
him 14 years to regain himself a body and we now have to believe
that he would waste a year because he had nothing better to do? Or
that his obsessions would take a back seat because he is a little
angry and just is taking revenge for the fun of it. DD himself
admits in the end of OotP he will not be able to hold off LV for-
ever after he returned to power.

We are also told that book 6 is not a stand alone and that it is the
first part of a bigger story and therefore it would make sense that
we do not get all the clues needed to see the full story even if we
have all the clues to figure out what will happen next. The prophecy
wasn't the only thing LV was after in OotP either if you look at
the whole picture from the moment he came back in GoF.

He didn't want DD to know he was back when he tried to kill Harry in
GoF because with DD not in the know, he could overrun the WW after he
had all his puppets in place and Harry out of his way.  Because
Harry did not die that night, LV needed to chance his plans and
knowing the full prophecy became an obsession.

Yes, LV's plan to take out DD had always been part of his plans but
he changed his priorities after the prophecy was made and he heard a
part of it because now someone else was introduced that could thwart
LVs main goal --> ultimate immortal power over the entire WW world.
DD was already at the losing end at the time LV ran himself into a
wall in GH; if it wasn't for Lily, he would have probably have ruled
the WW a long time ago.

JKR has been laying the groundwork of LV's bigger plan since
beginning of the story, but by looking at each book individually we
are bound to miss it and forget it is still the working on the same
plan.

I think the Snape loyalty debate might be put in there on purpose to
direct us away from the real culprit and his bigger plans -> LV. We
think only DD would be able to get Snape in a position he does not
want to be in, but what more ultimate punishment would there be
for Snape than to be at LV's mercy, with nowhere else to go and
with no one else to believe him?

Dana