LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 166395

> Mike:
> Based on the quality of DEs that Voldemort sent to Hogwarts, combined 
> with all the news of mayhem that keeps cropping up in the Daily 
> Prophet throughout the school year, I don't consider Voldemort very 
> attentive to Draco's progress. It wouldn't take much for LV to send a 
> threatening message to Draco and then ignore him for a while. We know 
> (or think we do) that LV doesn't expect Draco to succeed, so why 
> would we think he is spending much effort worrying about Draco's task?

Jen: Yes!  I thought of something after posting last night--why send the
second-stringers in for such an important mission when he could easily
break his DE's out of Azkaban as he's done before (leaving Lucius
if so inclined), send Bella, have the whole inner circle from the graveyard
on this incredibly important mission, plus second-stringers to add some
volume.  I'm not a military strategist, but what was up with Draco not
realizing or being told the Order patrols the corridors when Dumbledore is
gone?  You send the wet-behind-the-ears kid to run reconnaissance for, oh,
two seconds, and then the DE's poured out of the ROR?  Seems like they
had this huge element of surprise and could have waited until someone
ascertained Dumbledore was indeed back and the Order gone. 

Everything else Mike said about the DE's not seeming to have a mission
strenghtens my impression their mission was a cover. They certainly attracted 
attention at any rate!

When you think about the backstory of LV, one point that came up over
and over was how attached he is to Hogwarts, more attached to the castle
than a person according to Dumbledore.  When Draco came to LV offering
a way into Hogwarts that even Dumbledore didn't know about, *that* was
the cornerstone of Voldemort's plan in my opinion. Besides kidnapping
Trelawney, there's always the possibility Wormtail is back at Hogwarts
now, hiding in the Room of Requirement.  JKR made the point that the
ROR would not show up on the Map.  

Pippin:
> One thing we haven't considered is whether Voldemort did have
> a definite assignment for Snape to kill Dumbledore. Just because
> Snape sounds vague about it doesn't mean he is.<snip>  And if
> Snape actually had the assignment already, refusing to take the
> vow *would* put Snape in an impossible position with Voldemort.

Jen: This could explain Snape's motivation for the UV and the twitch.
I woudn't rule it out myself.

Pippin:
> Presumably Voldemort can count to seventeen and knows when the
> Privet Drive protection will run out. Why should he plan to attack
> Harry at Hogwarts when Privet Drive presents a much more vulnerable
> target?

Jen:  I didn't say anything about LV targeting Harry at Hogwarts, that
would make no sense as a plan.  I was saying that targeting the Malfoys
isn't much of a plan either, not for someone like Voldemort who's
obsessed with removing obstacles to killing Harry.

Jen