LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 166397

Carol earlier:
> > Whatever else Voldemort may be planning, the plot to force Draco
to try to kill Dumbledore, about which the three adults apparently
know, and the Vanishing Cabinet plan, about which Snape, at least,
does not know, are undeniably real, as is the advantage to Voldemort
if Dumbledore dies. (I'm still hoping, however, that he'll develop a
false sense of security as a result.) To throw in a Prophecy plan with
no hints whatever would not be "playing fair." 
> 
Jen responded: 
> I wasn't referring to the prophecy at this point, I was answering
whether we see a plot to kill Dumbledore throughout HBP.  What I see
at Spinner's End is three adults who say in a very circuitous way that
LV's plan is for Draco to kill someone, later confirmed to be
Dumbledore, and that both Snape and Narcissa appear to believe Draco
can't complete the task.  They go on to conclude LV's real plan is to
punish Lucius when Draco fails.  (Bella is apparently more interested
in the honor bestowed on Draco than whether he is able to do the job.)
> 
> Snape said Voldemort plans for him to do the deed in the end, yet
never once do we get a clue Voldemort has approached him with a
request or demanded he kill Dumbledore in Draco's place when Draco
doesn't succeed.  If Voldemort really plans for Dumbledore to die,
he's not taking advantage of his inside man who is trusted by
Dumbledore and has the advantage of surprise.  Also, Voldemort didn't
ask Snape to help Draco with the cabinents, or even tell him about the
plan.  Voldemort essentially placed a double-agent at Hogwarts and is
cutting him out of the loop at the most crucial time.
>  
> Therefore, the only legitimate plot I see to kill Dumbledore is the
one hatched by Narcissa and sealed by Snape with the UV.  And if Snape
took the UV never intending to kill Dumbledore, but die himself, then
unfortunately his plan went awry.
> 
> And that means the only plan Voldemort *appears* to have in HBP is
to punish Lucius and eventually, as Harry discovers as the story moves
along, kill all three Malfoys.  A plan that has nothing to do with his
real enemies, Dumbledore and Harry.  

Carol responds:
Well, at least you don't think that the Cabinet Plan was really about
Trelawney, which is what I was arguing against here!

However, we don't know why Snape thinks "he plans for me to do it in
the end"--clearly, he hasn't been told so but is only deducing what
Voldemort (or Dumbledore?) wants. And, as you say, he doesn't know
about the Cabinet plan--but Voldemort does. Clearly, Voldemort hasn't
asked Snape to kill Dumbledore himself or informed him about the
Vanishing cabinet plan because he doesn't trust him completely.
(wormtail's presence in snape's house is further indication of that
lack of trust.) Snape has given LV plausible reasons for thwarting
Quirrell and not showing up at the graveyard (the same ones he gives
to Bella), but he's been in Hogwarts all this time and both Dumbledore
and Harry Potter are still alive. Probably Snape suspects that LV
wants him to prove his loyalty by killing DD if Draco fails, but all
he knows for sure is that LV wants Draco to try first.

There can be no question that Voldemort really wants Dumbledore-- "the
only one he ever feared" and the chief obstacle between himself and
the prophecy boy--dead. And now, with the Prophecy orb destroyed and
the memory of his humiliating defeat at Dumbledore's hands in the MoM,
he wants both of them dead more than ever. In fact, we've seen him
trying to kill both of them in that battle. If it weren't for
Dumbledore blocking an AK with the statue of the wizard from the
fountain, Harry would be dead, and if it weren't for Fawkes swallowing
the jet of green light (assuming it was an actual AK), Dumbledore
would be dead. And if you don't think LV wants Dumbledore dead,
remember his words in OoP when DD informs him that the Aurors are on
their way: "By which time I shall be gone, and you dead!" (813). 

But Voldemort doesn't trust Snape to do the job. Just as he did with
the Goblet of Fire plan, he needs someone other than Snape inside
Hogwarts, someone whose loyalty to him is unquestionable and whose
intentions no one will suspect. And voile! Just at the time he most
wants Dumbledore dead, along comes young Draco, bent on revenge for
his father's arrest, with news that he knows a way to get DEs into
Hogwarts--the broken Vanishing Cabinets which, if repaired, would form
a link between Hogwarts and Borgin and Burkes. (Or Voldie, bent on
revenge against Lucius, summoned him, giving him the task of killing
DD, and Draco said, "Oh, I know just the way!" and explained about the
Vanishing Cabinets. How convenient, if that's the case.) 

At any rate, however much Voldie may want revenge on Lucius, his
hatred of Dumbledore has been festering for a much longer time, along
with his desire to kill Harry, which is thwarted by DD's existence,
and the quote in the previous paragraph shows what we should know from
the battle itself and DD's position as Harry's protector--he wants
Dumbledore dead. (I forgot to mention that DD has been trying to
convince the WW for a year that Voldemort has returned, another reason
to want revenge on him.)

The idea that LV wants Draco to fail is *Narcissa's.* She's the one
who says, "Then I am right! He has chosen Draco in revenge! He does
not mean him to succeed! He wants him to be killed trying!" (HBP Am.
ed. 34). Snape says neither yes or no in response to this remark
("Snape said nothing," 34), so it's impossible to know to what extent
he agrees with Narcissa. IOW, the idea that the Dark Lord wants Draco
to fail is not confirmed, either by Snape or by LV himself, who never
appears in the book.)

"Killed trying" can only mean "killed by Dumbledore," and Snape knows
that possibility is extremely remote. Granted, Snape also knows that
Voldemort is angry with Lucius and that Draco's real danger is not
being killed by DD but failing to "do the deed" and being killed by LV
himself. But he also knows full well that Voldemort wants Dumbledore
dead. So while he seems to share Narcissa's fears that Draco will
fail, to the extent that he puts his own life in jeopardy to protect
him, there's no indication that he shares Narcissa's hysterical
conclusion that Voldie *wants* Draco to fail. (Bellatrix, of course,
holds no such view, nor does Draco at this stage, as we see in
"Draco's Detour" and "The Slug Club." For them, it's all about "duty"
and "honour" and "glory" and being "rewarded above all others" by the
Dark Lord. Even Snape uses that last phrase, 33.) Given that
Dumbledore is a big fish and Draco is a little one (as is vengeanace
against Lucius, really), it's quite possible that Narcissa is wrong in
believing that Voldemort *wants* Draco to fail, as both Snape and
Narcissa are wrong in underestimating Draco's ability to carry out
aspects of the plan that Snape, at least, knows nothing about.

It's perfectly logical for Voldemort to choose Draco, whose father had
just been arrested by the MoM, to "do the deed." Regardless of whether
LV summoned Draco or Draco (perhaps through Bellatrix) contacted him
about a security breach at Hogwarts, LV would soon learn that Draco,
in contrast to Snape, is an avid and vocal Voldemort supporter, bent
on revenge (I've already cited canon to show his state of mind, but
see the end of OoP, "Draco's Detour," and the Hogwarts Express scene
in HBP) and eager to do the Dark Lord's will. 

And the plan itself is a good one: Draco is to fix the broken
Vanishing Cabinet, call in the DEs while DD is out of the castle, have
them set off the Dark Mark to summon DD to the Astronomy Tower, then
Draco is to disarm DD, wait for the DEs to arrive as backup, and then
kill him. If the plan succeeds and Draco gets DEs into Hogwarts (with
Snape, as you say, out of the loop), then Dumbledore--supposedly
weakened by his battle at the MoM and having since suffered a serious
injury (we can be sure that Snape told LV just what he told
Bellatrix)--would have, in LV's view, a good chance of dying. And if
the plan fails, Draco dies, and Voldie has his revenge on Lucius.
Win/win for Voldemort (though surely revenge on Lucius is less
important and less satisfactory than disposing, once and for all of
"the only one he ever feared").

So I really don't see how you can say that there was no plan to kill
Dumbledore. There certainly was, and had Voldemort not wanted it to
succeed, he surely would not have lent Draco DEs to help him
intimidate Borgin, Imperio Rosmerta, and invade Hogwarts, nor would he
have put increasing pressure on Draco when he seemed unable to fix the
Vanishing Cabinet. He would have killed him (or Narcissa) months
before for failing to do his duty. And this plan existed independent
of the UV, about which Voldemort may have had no knowledge. (Wormtail
was shut out of the conversation, with the door surely Imperturbed,
and none of the others would have told him that they were going behind
his back.)

Carol, who thinks that Voldemort, who underestimates others but never
himself, expected and wanted the plan to succeed, regardless of
whether Draco or Snape killed Dumbledore "in the end"