LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 166408

I think some of mine and Dana's arguments are getting confused.
I don't think LV is behind the UV, although I did argue that
right after HBP.  My first post discussing the possibilty of
Voldemort having another plan in mind for HBP/DH is here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/165257

> Jen: 
> I'm not a military strategist, but what was up with Draco not 
> realizing or being told the Order patrols the corridors when 
> Dumbledore is gone? You send the wet-behind-the-ears kid to run 
> reconnaissance for, oh, two seconds, and then the DE's poured out of 
> the ROR? Seems like they had this huge element of surprise and could 
> have waited until someone ascertained Dumbledore was indeed back and 
> the Order gone.
> 
> Magpie:
> Who says Draco didn't know the Order was patrolling? Isn't that what 
> the DE backup is for, to get him to Dumbledore? Isn't that exactly 
> why they do? 

Jen: The fact that Draco made it past the Order to Dumbledore is
not proof he knew the Order was there in the first place.  I don't read
anything in canon making it absolutely clear, and in fact, one quote
by Dumbledore indicates Draco might *not* have been aware until after the
fact:

 "What if your back-up has been thwarted by my guard?  As you
have perhaps realized, there are members of the Order of the Phoenix
here tonight, too." (HBP, chap. 27, p. 547, UK)

Obviously Draco brought his Hand of Glory and Peruvian darkness
powder expecting to run into people because he uses it immediately
when he sees Ginny and the others patrolling the hallway.  That proves
they expected to run into others, but not that others had to be the Order.

The mistake in my argument you didn't point out is that they did
intend to arrive when Dumbledore wasn't there because Malfoy
communicated with Rosmerta to find out Dumbledore was going for
a drink.  So Draco et. al., did know Dumbledore was gone and weren't
planning on the element of surprise by slipping out at night once
Dumbledore was back.  They didn't expect he'd be gone for so long
though, from what Draco says on the tower, which meant a more
extended time for their arrival to be noticed by others. 

> Magpie:
> Huh??? What do you mean they didn't seem to have a mission? They 
> stated their mission several times and did it. Their mission was to 
> get Draco to Dumbledore so that Draco could kill him. Their being 
> second-stringers goes along well with that as well. The death of 
> Draco Malfoy is not an important mission!

Jen:  I thought the mission was 'kill Dumbledore'?  Isn't that what you,
Carol and others are arguing?  'The death of Draco Malfoy is not an
important mission' sounds like you are saying that Voldemort *doesn't*
expect Draco to suceed and that he will die.  That the mission *is* for
Draco to die and Lucius to be punished.  I'm not arguing with that! 
Also, I completely agree that Draco and the DE's believe their mission
is to deliver Draco to Dumbledore and that's what they do.

What's VERY different in HBP from Voldemort plots in the other books
is we never actually hear some version of the plan and the events
that follow *in Voldemort's own words*. What we do hear is supposition by
other characters.  And it isn't clear what each of these characters may
or may not know, or may or may not want to reveal to each other.  The
part of HBP that is fact when it comes to Voldemort is the Horcruxes, imo.

> Jen previous:
> When you think about the backstory of LV, one point that came up over
> and over was how attached he is to Hogwarts, more attached to the 
> castle than a person according to Dumbledore. When Draco came to LV 
> offering a way into Hogwarts that even Dumbledore didn't know about, 
> *that* was the cornerstone of Voldemort's plan in my opinion. 

> Magpie:
> No one in canon suggests any such thing. *They* say that the 
> cornerstone was Voldemort seeing a fitting way to punish Lucius by 
> telling Draco to kill Dumbledore, and Draco seeing a way to get the 
> DEs into Hogwarts for backup (a secret way, we don't know from how 
> many people for how long), and that happening. 

Jen:  Yes, *they* say.  I've already stated my reasoning here and won't
repeat myself.  

JKR spent chapters on Voldemort's life, dropping bits
of information about him.  I spent quite a bit of time reading these and
analyzing what she was trying to say about Voldemort.  The importance
of the treasures was that they eventually morphed into the Horcrux
containers.  The importance of the murders was for Voldemort to split his
soul and start making Horcruxes. A seemingly minor conclusion by Riddle
as an 11 year old about his mom's death was the basis of his thoughts
on immortality.

Well, there was one other thing mentioned that hasn't come into play, the
fact that Voldemort tried twice to get back into Hogwarts as a teacher.
That Dumbledore believed he was more attached to the castle than people.
That he had likely uncovered more of the magic in the castle than any other
student.  Voldemort is portrayed as obsessive about things, his treasures,
being immortal, and yes, Hogwarts.  Therefore, I think it's perfectly valid 
to speculate that Voldemort has reasons for wanting to be back inside
Hogwarts since he's tried several times unsuccessfully, and that Draco
offerering him a way inside no one knew about *could* have been
something that interested him very much.


Magpie:
> Every other single thing mentioned--that Trelawney was going to be
> kidnapped and that Wormtail is at Hogwarts in the RoR or not--was
> born outside of canon  seemingly, from what I've read, from fan
> dissatisfaction with Voldemort's interest in the Malfoys and the actions
> that come out of it. 

Jen:  There are many different ideas floating around right now. 
Of course I believe my thoughts on Trelawney are born in canon <g>.
Here it is, from a post in Feb.:

Trelawney not attending the funeral could either way. Her staying in
her room would be consistent with the Trelawney Harry has known for
much of the series, if not exactly in OOTP and HBP when she started
to venture out more. But the real evidence I see for Trelawney not
actually being in the castle at the time of the funeral is another
characterization point: Despite whatever grief she may have
sincerely felt for the loss of Dumbledore, she would be all over her
card reading coming true and want everyone to know about it. She's
acutely aware people think her a fraud and now has a star witness in
Harry about her very accurate and literal prediction this time. This
would wipe the stain off her record and get 'Dobbin' (hehe) out of
the castle in her mind, which seem to be her primary concern in HBP.
She would *not* pass up this chance imo.

Magpie:
> If we learn in future that Trelawney has been kidnapped or that 
> Pettigrew is in Hogwarts, I think it will be the subject of a 
> different book with HBP being a convenient explanation without the 
> plot taking over HBP retroactively.

Jen:  My thoughts on Wormtail are not fully formed, but since he was not
one of the DE's present at the battle, and *if* there was something specific
Voldemort wanted out of the castle, then I see the possibility that he
entered through the Vanishing Cabinent as a rat, before the door was
sealed, and is now in Hogwarts.  So that would play out in DH.

> Magpie:
> Targetting the Malfoys is a wonderful plan, especially for someone 
> like Voldemort. Not everything he does has to be based on removing 
> obstacles and killing Harry. People don't not get punished on the 
> Bad Side because Voldemort doesn't care about anything that doesn't 
> kill Harry. On the contrary, he tortures for drama, for amusement, 
> and to establish his dominance. The example he makes of Draco is 
> well-chosen for the point he's making to his followers and probably 
> quite personally satisfying to him as well. I don't understand why 
> it must be wrong just because it's not a plan like the ones in GoF 
> and OotP. 

Jen:  I don't think we read Voldemort the same way.  He is ruled
by his obsessions, one of the subjects of several character stories
in HBP.  LV makes mistakes when he underestimates love or the
young, and it will likely prove true he made mistakes with Draco
that will help the other side in DH.

What he doesn't do is waste much time on his followers.  They are
there to carry out his plans, his goals, his quest, whether that's
chasing immortality, being reborn, obtaining the prophecy, etc.  
In the graveyard, LV said this to Lucius:  'Your exploits at the
Quidditch World Cup were fun, I daresay...but might not your
energies have been better directed toward finding and aiding
your master?' (GOF, chap 33, p. 650, US).  Spending a year
torturing the Malfoys is a year wasted on what he believes
are more important pursuits (in my view)--figuring out why his
powers don't work on Harry, how to get around Dumbledore's
protections, etc.

Without Voldemort actually stating his objectives in HBP himself, 
I'm proposing ones that seems logical from past plans and the
events at the end of OOTP.

Jen R.