LV's bigger plan / Trelawney at the funeral or not?

[Ceridwen]

No: HPFGUIDX 166445

Ceridwen:  I'm combining quotes from a couple of posts because I 
think I'm near my five post limit tonight.

Dana:
> The Snape part also adds nothing specifically to the plot of HBP or 
even the main plot because eventually the messenger of the prophecy 
has no importance to how the receiver of the message acts on it. And 
it says nothing specifically about Snape's loyalties because if he 
just defected because he had a lifedebt to the James (the only part 
this scene reflects on), then one could as easily conclude had it not 
been so, he wouldn't have come to DD for instance if LV had chosen 
Neville instead of Harry.

Ceridwen:
The Snape part adds a lot to the plot.  Dumbledore has apparently 
fudged the truth with Harry.  He said the eavesdropper was ousted 
midway through the prophecy, but the seer says he was presented at 
the end of the prophecy.

And since Harry has been growing angrier at Snape through the series, 
this adds something else for him to be angry about.  It is setting up 
a crisis of spirit for Harry.  Since his power is Love, this hate has 
to be brought to a white-hot heat, tempered, cooled, and done away 
with so Harry will be purged.  He will become a better person for 
overcoming this hatred.  It is essential for his character growth, I 
believe.  It adds to Harry's very basic story.

This discrepancy also says something about Dumbledore and possibly 
his loyalties.  He is willing to mislead and fudge, even to Harry, to 
protect Snape.  He may also be protecting Harry from the hatred he 
knows he will feel if he learns this.  It also underscores again that 
Dumbledore plays his cards close to his vest.  It is a character 
affirmation moment for Dumbledore.

So it's more than just the raw information, at least that's the idea 
I got from the scene.

Dana:
> Why would LV wait until DD is dead and then come back later?  Draco 
is providing the access to Hogwarts and the distraction his task has 
on DD and, in this case the Order members provides the perfect  
opportunity while he doesn't know what the protection at Hogwarts 
will be after DD's death.

Ceridwen:
But for LV to have had a concrete plan like this, he would have to 
have known that Dumbledore was going to be incapacitated in some way 
that night.  In my opinion, he could not have forseen that Dumbledore 
would have drunk a potion that had him sliding down the wall pasty-
faced, able (or willing) to be disarmed by a mere student.  He would 
have to imagine a worst-case scenario of a healthy Dumbledore holding 
Draco at wandpoint, possibly torturing him and killing him.

He would also have to imagine a Dumbledore who was, as we know, 
strong enough to take on several Aurors from the Ministry and use his 
phoenix to escape.  He would have to imagine a Dumbledore in full 
faculties and ability and not trust everything his double agent has 
told him, because first, I think you're right and he doesn't trust 
Snape as much as Snape let on in Spinner's End; and second, he would 
have to imagine a Dumbledore who may deliberately mislead a known spy 
from LV's camp as to the nature and extent of his injury.

Voldemort has been played as someone with the characteristic failings 
of a true potential Evil Overlord, but he is not deficient.  He would 
have to have expected something much different and debilitating than 
what his people actually found.

Dana:
> (Yes, speculation that is all it is but what else have we to do 
while we wait and although not canon proof it neither contradicting 
canon either ;)) 

Ceridwen:
I am in complete agreement with this statement.  :)

Dana:
> DD knows Tom better then anyone and DD would also know that just 
sending Draco to murder him would be OOC for Tom to do this just so 
he could take revenge on Lucius.

Ceridwen:
But it wouldn't just take revenge on Lucius.  It would crush Lucius 
as nothing else would.

It would also send a very chilling message to the other DEs who have 
children: Nott, Crabbe and Goyle that we know of.  If the suave 
Lucius can lose his child to Voldemort, so can they.  Every DE is put 
on notice by this punishment.  It isn't just them, it's their beloved 
children, too.  LV has no personal understanding of love, but he does 
understand it as a weakness he can play to his advantage.  That's 
what he tried to do to Dumbledore in the Ministry - use his love for 
Harry to devastate the old man.  Only it didn't work with Dumbledore.

The DEs are not Dumbledore.

Ceridwen.