Voldemort's Motives

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 166475

Julie wrote:
> The main problem with all the theories that Voldemort wanted to gain
unfettered access to Hogwarts is that he DID gain it in HBP. So why
didn't he use it? Why didn't Voldemort invade Hogwarts with his whole
army of DEs and Dementors instead of merely sending a handful of DEs
with Draco? It doesn't track at all. 
> 
> I do believe Voldemort hoped to get rid of Dumbledore either via
Draco (highly unlikely) or Snape (more likely). And *if* unfettered
access to Hogwarts is part of Voldemort's ultimate goal, then removing
Dumbledore can only be part of achieving that goal, or Voldemort would
already be in place. There must be other restrictions we don't know
about that kept Voldemort from taking over Hogwarts when he had a
golden opportunity. 
> 
> If Voldemort does intend to take Hogwarts at a later date when he's
achieved whatever is needed to do it on his own terms, then I CAN see
him having prepared the way in HBP by secretly inserting someone to
help him achieve that goal. Someone like Wormtail, for instance, who
might be able to remove whatever barriers remain to Voldemort's 
complete control of Hogwarts. We'll just have to wait until DH to see
though.
> 
> > Doddie, (who is convinced Snape is a chess piece on both DD and
Voldie's boards, yet unsure of which piece, and who is also sure that,
Snape doesn't appear to have the emotional maturity to truly play the
"double spy" he wants to be.)
> 
> Julie, who is also convinced Snape is a chess piece on DD and
Voldie's boards, but also believes Snape is quite adept at being a
double spy and will ultimately outwit Voldemort.

Carol responds:
I completely agree with Julie's post except for one minor point:
Voldemort doesn't have a "whole army of Death Eaters." By my count,
he's now down to Wormtail, Bellatrix, Goyle, Amycus, Alecto, the big
blond (if he isn't Goyle), and perhaps three Azkaban escapees who
weren't at the MoM. (Travers, maybe?) I'm not counting Snape, of course!

Regarding Snape's emotional maturity, I think his control of his
emotions in "Spinner's End" is masterful. The raised eyebrows, the
voice inflections, the inscrutable expressions--what a pro! No wonder
nobody on either side (except Dumbledore, ;-)) knows whose side he's
on. And considering how provoking Draco was being in the "Unbreakable
Vow," I think that Snape did a pretty good job there, too--especially
considering that he'd put his own life in jeopardy to protect the
ungrateful brat. It's a shame he couldn't force the truth out of Draco
by breaking through his clumsy Occlumency or giving him Veritaserum,
but he had to keep his DE cover.

Regarding protections on Hogwarts, the chief protection, IMO, was
always Dumbledore himself. Even when he was away, he arranged for
things like Sorting Hats with swords in them and Phoenixes to protect
those who were loyal to him. And if his office sealed itself to keep
out Dolores Umbridge, it would certainly do so to keep out Voldemort
and his Death Eaters.

I think that another reason Voldemort didn't attack--yet--is that he
has so few Death Eaters. He certainly knew, probably via Snape, about
the increased protections on the school (no brooms can fly in, for
example--unless they're being ridden by Dumbledore), and he would have
read in the Daily Prophet that Scrimgeour was posting a small task
force of Aurors at the school. And, of course, his DEs would be
greatly outnumbered by the teachers and students, at least some of
whom can cast a Stunning Spell or a Shield Charm. (Twelve of his DEs,
most of them now in Azkaban, had just been given a run for their money
by six teenagers before the Order came to join the fight, so he would
know that some of the students can fight, too.) There's also the whole
matter of Harry Potter, whom he wants to deal with himself, which
would require a whole different plan or set of plans.

It's one thing to believe that he can sneak in six DEs by a route that
DD can't possibly anticipate, trick DD (whom Snape has led LV to
believe was weakened by the MoM battle--I think Snape wants him to
underestimate both DD and Harry) into trapping himself on the
Astronomy Tower, disarming and killing him, and quite another to think
that six DEs, or even twelve, can fight a full-fledged battle against
all the teachers and students in Hogwarts. Best to take Hogwarts over
when it's empty except for the recently injured McGonagall, the
supposed oaf Hagrid, the Squib Filch, and the inept Seer Trelawney,
whose memory he may decide to probe at some future point if Harry
Potter continues to prove elusive. (I do think she'd have a memory of
the Prophecy; she wasn't out cold like Morfin. But we all know that
learning the Prophecy isn't going to help him much.)

As for the protections on the school, once Dumbledore is gone, most of
the magical protections (except for the ancient ones, such as no
Apparation/Disapparation), will probably be gone, too, and once the
students are gone, the Aurors will be gone. (I do wonder, and have
asked several times with no response, whether the anti-flying
protection is still in place, only temporarily swept aside by
Dumbledore with his broom, erm, wand. If it is, how did Madame
Maxime's flying carriage get onto the grounds?)

Voldemort didn't strike during the funeral for much the same reason,
IMO--too many people present for his few remaining Death Eaters to
fight, including Aurors and Order members. Now is not the time to take
the school. One step at a time. As long as LV has his Horcruxes, he
has all the time in the world.

He's rid himself of a major obstacle, Albus Dumbledore, but he has not
yet built up his strength. The giants can be used to wreak havoc and
the Dementors to induce despair, but only human followers can be used
to form an army subject to control through coercion and fear of his
power. If Lupin is to be believed, the Order members were outnumbered
ten to one in VW1. At this point, however, even with Emmeline Vance
and Sirius Black dead, Mundungus arrested, and Snape seemingly on the
other side, the Order actually has more members than Voldie has DEs at
the moment: at least four Weasleys, Lupin, Moody, McGonagall, Hagrid,
Shacklebolt, Tonks, Aberforth, Sturgis (out of Azkaban by now), Hestia
Jones, Dedalus Diggle, Elphias Doge--maybe others that we don't know
about or I forgot to include but whose names Voldemort probably knows
(unless Snape is keeping information from him).

If I were Voldemort, my next step would be getting the DEs out of
Azkaban, making sure that they knew they had better not mess up again,
so that I had at least enough DEs to fight the Order. And, with Potter
and his Marauder's Map (surely Wortail told LV about this little
obstacle to spying) out of the picture, I'd send in Wormtail by
whatever secret passage he chooses to scout out the nearly empty
Hogwarts. (Or maybe he came in with the other DEs and is biding his
time, under separate orders from theirs. If Voldie thinks that far
ahead, which I doubt.) And, of course, I'd stage an attack on 4 Privet
Drive for just past midnight on the morning of August 1.

Carol, on pins and needles to find out where Snape fits in but sure
that he's no mere chess piece and is not Voldemort's man