Another time line (was: LV's reasons for showing at the DoM)

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 168744

> zgirnius:
> There is a typo of some sort here, Dana. 3.31 minutes? Do you mean 
> about 30? The why do you later suggest full dark is at 10:50 in 
> Edinburgh? I will assume this is what you meant, as you go with it 
> for the rest of the post.
<snip>

Dana:

No, the twilight takes 3.31 minutes. The twilight is the moment sun 
goes down and the night starts. And this phenomenon takes 3.31 
minutes to complete.

> zgirnius:
> If 10:50 is your proposed arrival time AND the moment of full dark, 
> then you looked up the wrong places for end of twilight. You say 
> this is end of twilight, AND when Harry arrives. Hence, you should 
> be looking when the end of twilight happens in London, England. As 
> it is some 300 miles south of Edinburgh, I suspect it happens 
> earlier in London than in any of the three cities of Scotland you 
> mention. In fact, a check of the source you cited shows a time 
> between 9:10 pm and 9:25 pm for sunset in London, depending on 
> whether we look at early or late June. Which gives 10:10-10:25 for 
> full dark assuming 1 hour. (As you seem to in Edinburgh). Harry 
> leaves school at 9:50 and arrives in London about thirty minutes 
> later, doing considerably better than the plane service connecting 
> those two cities for Muggles. I find it hard to believe this is the 
> time lapse Rowling intended, and conclude this exercise is probably 
> doomed because she simply did not look this stuff up. Certainly, my 
> subjective impression of the length of the trip was not 30 minutes, 
> and that is what I trust more, as describing people's feelings 
> seems more her forte than astronomy/timelines/maths. Harry loses 
> all track of how long and how far they travel in that time.
<snip>

Dana: 
No, I did not want to propose a arrival time of 10.50 but one between 
the moment of the twilight and 12.00 am. If Harry would not have been 
able to witness the twilight if he was already in London by that time 
because the sun had already set before Harry leaves Hogwarts. And 
when you look at the city that are half way then the timing of the 
twilight is just 20 minutes sooner, compared to Scotland. 

We also have an impression from PS/SS that it takes a pretty long 
time to travel to London, when we see the owl bringing DD his message 
and the trio going through the trapped door and when DD finaly shows 
up to safe Harry. 

But this doesn't matter because for Snape, it still is dark at 11.00 
and if we shift the arrival of the Order 20 minutes back it is still 
past 1.00 pm. But you are right I should have split the time that I 
think Harry arrived and him wondering the DoM, to make it more clear 
what I meant. 

Even if the time of Harry's arrival is unknown, we still have the 
timing of the battle ending and that is again in Scotland. The time 
in London and the time in Scotland are the same. Meaning there is no 
time difference and we see that this is when dawn approaches which 
makes it before 4.30. If we calculate that it takes DD an hour to 
show up then Harry leaves at 3.30. We did not see the Order fighting 
the DE's 3 to 4 hours. So even if Harry arrived slightly earlier it 
only means he wandered the MoM and fought the DEs by himself longer. 

This still means that the Order arrived past 1.00 pm and if the 
apperate in and left right after receiving Snape's message, as DD 
implies (twice), then Snape pretty much warned the Order around 1.00 
pm. Which means that he still waited 2 full hours after it turned 
dark from where he is at and this is still about 6 hours after Harry 
warned him. 

It also doesn't change the fact that it is 4 hours between the time 
Harry warned him and 11.00 when it is fully dark and makes it 
implosible that within that time frame, he did not run into Draco. Of 
course that is not what DD tells us. He tells us that when Harry did 
not return from his trip with Umbridge, Snape grew worried Harry 
might still think LV got Sirius.  

There is also another problem with the idea that Snape learned from 
Draco or other students that Harry was missing. Draco could not have 
seen Umbridge going into the forest because Ron stated he saw and 
Draco and his friends were on the ground. He could only have seen the 
4 other kids go into the forest and if Snape got the information from 
Draco, then he knew that now not only Harry was there with Umbridge 
but also 4 wand carrying kids. Which made it all the more likely that 
if they all met that they would take out Umbridge and she would be no 
longer keeping Harry busy. 

There is of course also the problem that we do not see Draco turning 
up in the forest and I have to wonder why he would not go and try to 
take his revenge and follow them in, if he knew where they had gone 
to. 

Snape could not have been warned by anybody else and then know where 
Harry went but of course if he was warned by other for Harry not 
showing up to go to bed, then it changes nothing about the fact Snape 
lost track of Harry for more then 4 hours. 

Dana.