Another time line (was: LV's reasons for showing at the DoM)

[montavilla47]

No: HPFGUIDX 168784

Dana:
> Anyway although I know Neri already posted a timeline, I thought I 
> amuse myself and make another one. I haven't checked with his to see 
> if they match with what Neri wrote earlier but for me it is still 
> cristal clear that something is not right about Snape's actions and 
> here it is. 

Montavilla47: 
Great timeline, Dana.  I once wrote a POV for Snape on this night, 
I had to do much the same thing.  I'm going make a few notes 
as we go...

PLEASE NOTE that this is all my own speculation and NOT fact or 
textev.  It's simply what MIGHT have happened.

Dana's Timeline:

> 5.50  am – 6.10 am  Harry is caught, Umbridge sends someone to get 
> Snape.  
> 
> 6.10  am – 6.45 am  Snape arrives and when he is about the leave 
> Harry tries to warn him. 

Montavilla47:
This just about what I figured for the timing when Snape arrives.  At 
this point I had him investigate the situation at 12 Grimauld Place, 
figuring that it would take him at least half an hour.  Incidently, 
Dumbledore doesn't say that Snape *spoke* to Sirius, only that he 
determined that Sirius was at home.  In my story, Snape doesn't speak
to Sirius.

Timeline:
> 6.45  am – 7.00 am  Hermione comes up with a plan to stop Umbridge 
> crucio Harry. 
> 
> 7.00  am – 7.15 am  Harry, Umbridge and Hermion reach the forest, 
> when they walk past the great Hall. Harry notices dinner is still in 
> progress. 
 
> 7.10  am – 7.25 am  Ron, Luna, Ginny and Neville escape from Draco 
> and his gang and go after Harry. 

Montavilla47:
In my story, Snape arrived at Umbridge's office to find it empty.  
He  notices movement in the forest (Ron, Luna, Neville and Ginny 
following the others), but doesn't connect it to anything in 
particular.
 
> 7.15  am – 9.00 am  Harry, Hermione and Umbridge face the centaur's 
> and Gwarp. 

Montavilla47:
You're having them walk through the forest for about two hours then. 
During this time, I had Snape searching the castle for Harry, thinking 
that Umbridge must have stashed the students in some unusual place.

After some time, I had him meet up with Draco et al., learning about 
the trip into the forest.  At this point, my story diverged from the one
Dumbledore tells, because I had Snape go into the forest after them--
as it seemed implausible that he wouldn't.  

As Dumbledore tells it, Snape would have been contacting the Order at
this point.  But, if so, he must have been a genius to conclude that
they were on their way to the Ministry, because it's a huge leap to 
make--even if he knows that Voldemort sent a vision, because it was
a total fluke that the Sextet used the thestrals.

So, I chose to have Snape follow the Sextet.  Since Hermione walked
straight through the forest, it wouold have taken Snape at least as 
long as they took to track them to the spot from which they flew away. 
In my story, Snape finds the spot of the fight, puzzles over the clues
for a few minutes, then notices the thestrals.  At this point, he puts it
together and realizes the students are on their way to the Ministry.

Now, if Snape doesn't follow them--then he would have to be side-
tracked by talk about "a weapon."  The closest thing to that would 
be Grawp, which means a two-hour walk to Grawp's tree and a 
two-hour walk back.  Meaning he might expect to see them coming
out of the forest at 11:00-ish.

But I still can't see any way that Snape wouldn't have followed them.
After all, it's not *only* Voldemort he'd need to worry about--
whether he's DDM or not.  The forest is full of dangers--not the 
least of which is Umbridge herself.

> 9.00  am – 9.55 am  Harry and his friends leave the Forest just when 
> the sun is about to set. In Scotland in June the sunsets on between 
> 9.50 and 9.57 am between 1996 and 2004. Jo was living in Scotland at 
> the time she was writing OotP. On this website one can see the sunset 
> and sunrise for Edinburgh. There are three places in Scotland that 
> can be selected; Glasgow and Aberdeen are the other two and they have 
> the same sunset and rise times. 
> http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.htmln=304&month=6&year
> =2004&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1

Montavilla47:
Following your timeline, Snape would have entered the office at 
about 7:30, searched the castle for 30-60 minutes, and started 
into the forest at 8:00-8:30.  That means he would have arrived 
at area of the fight at about 10:00-10:30.  If he had any trouble
tracking them in the deepening twilight, then he might have 
arrived at 11:00.

At this point, he might have sent a Patronus.  We don't know how
long it would take it to travel from Northern Scotland to London.
We don't know if a Patronus *can* travel that far.  I chose to have
use a different method, which is the fireplace in Umbridge's
office--the only one in the castle which isn't being monitored.

It would probably take him less time to get back than it did to
follow the Sextet.  But it's still a long way, so figure an hour at 
least.  That means he contacted the Order at 12:00.

> 9.55  am – 10.50 am Harry is still flying to London, on page 675 it 
> is mentioned that twilight sets, it is the time when the sunset ends 
> and night begins it takes 3.31 minutes for this to happen and for the 
> 3 places mentioned above this takes place between 22.50 and 22.55 
> (10.50  - 10.55 am) 
> http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.htmlmonth=6&year=2004&
> obj=sun&afl=-13&day=1&n=304

> 10.50 am – 12.00 am       Harry arrives at the MoM and wanders around 
> it the DoM
> 
> 12.00 am –  1.30 pm        Harry and his friends fight the DEs

Montavilla47:
Now, if Snape contacted the Order at 12:00--although I think it 
could easily have been later, they could instantly Apparate to the
Ministry, right?  So, we're still missing an hour and a half?
 
Looks bad for Snape.  But something I didn't even think of until 
recently is that the Order doesn't actually know much more about
the layout of the DoM than Harry does.  That's why they need 
those blueprints Bill is rolling up.  It's the Department of Mysteries.  
You don't go down there unless you work there.  So, the Order
is going to stumbling around the area just as Harry was.

It's a big place and they don't know where Harry is.  It could have
taken them that long to get through the other rooms--they might
have had skirmishes with other Death Eaters along the way.  There
are at least a dozen of them--and perhaps more guarding the
perimeter.

It's not a matter of the Order members getting the message from
Snape and making a beeline for Harry.  They were hurrying, but 
it still took them awhile.

> 1.30  pm –  3.30 pm         The Order arrives. I am giving 2 hours 
> from the moment the Order arrives until Harry is sent to DD office.

Montavilla47:
Now, this is where I find issue with the timeline.  It's not your fault, 
I think it's JKR fudging things.  The action in the book only seems
to take an hour at most.  The Order arrives, there's a short
battle.  Sirius dies.  Harry runs after Bellatrix, there's another short
duel.  The Ministers arrive and Dumbledore sends Harry to his 
office.  

That doesn't seem enough to fill two hours.

> 3.30 pm –  4.30 pm          Harry waits for DD in DD's office the sun 
> has not yet risen because Harry notices dawn is approaching and we 
> hear DD tell Fudge he will give him 30 minutes of his time and DD has 
> taken everybody to the hospital wing, had a chat with Snape and when 
> he is arriving the sun is still rising and the sunrises in Scotland 
> between 4.25 and 4.35
> http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.htmln=304&month=6&year
> =2004&obj=sun&afl=-13&day=1

Montavilla47:
This is very interesting, because I had the most problem with 
the time line right here.  (Like you, I checked the sunrise and
sunset times.  I also checked the moon phases, but that's by-
the-by.)  What bugged me was that half hour thing that 
Dumbledore says, because it looks like he's coming from the 
Ministry, but I finally decided that, no, he was coming from
somewhere else.

The way it reads in the book, Harry doesn't seem to be waiting
that long for Dumbledore for arrive, but you're right.  He does
wait for a long time.  And the dawn is breaking at the end of their
chat (which, incidently, means that the students start eating 
breakfast at 4:30 in the morning.  Sheesh.  Harry routinely 
goes to bed after Midnight.  No wonder wizards can't figure out
logic problems.)

So, working it out from Snape's POV, and leaving him reasonable
amounts of time to be puzzled, follow false leads, and travel, I 
find it very plausible that he didn't contact the Order until about
the time that Harry arrived in London.

And I'm not sure we are fair to scrutinize that timeline too closely.
How plausible it is for Sirius to be tortured for eight hours and 
live?  Yet, Harry still thinks he can save his godfather--keeps his
adreniline going for eight hours before they even reach the 
Ministry.

The other thing that doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you
obsess over it for a couple years is why they go to the Ministry 
instead of 12 Grimauld Place.  That's there the help would be.

Or back to Snape now that Umbridge is out of the way.

Montavilla47