A Flaw in the Plan (was: DD and LV)

[montavilla47]

No: HPFGUIDX 178347

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Carol" <justcarol67 at ...> wrote:
>
> Montavilla47 wrote:
> > > I know this is off-topic, but can someone please explain to me how
> Severus's death was a flaw in the plan?
> > > 
> > > As I understand it, the plan was for Dumbledore to die undefeated,
> so that the wand would lose its power.
> > > 
> > > <snip DD's plan for the Elder Wand>
> > > 
> > > So, how was Snape getting killed not part of the original plan?
> > 
> Pippin responded:
> > 
> > We don't know what Dumbledore's original plan was, but we know he
> wanted Snape to live, both to protect Hogwarts and to pass the
> information about the soul fragment to Harry. 
> > 
> > It was by no means inevitable that Voldemort would decide that the
> elder wand had to pass by murder. In fact, he should have known by the
> very fact that Dumbledore became master of the wand while Grindelwald
> was still alive that mastery of the wand did not have to pass by
> murder at all. But while Voldemort was capable of logic, in this case
> he gave into his murderous urges and didn't think of that.   
> 
> Carol responds:
<snip>
> I take Dumbledore's regret that Snape died (it is not remorse; there's
> no indication that he planned Snape's death as a sacrifice) to be
> genuine. (If it isn't, he's a foul and contemptible hypocrite and that
> certainly isn't the impression that Harry receives). Moreover, when
> Harry asks whether DD intended for Snape to end up with the Elder
> Wand, DD says, I admit that was my intention, but it did not work out
> as I intended, did it?" to which Harry responds, "No, that bit didn't
> work out" (DH Am. ed. 721). Ergo, Snape's death was not part of the
> plan. It came about because of the flaw in the plan, Draco's
> Expelliarmus (which ultimately works to Harry's advantage, but,
> unfortunately, not to Snape's).

Montavilla47:
First off, thank you Carol and Pippin, for responding to my 
question.  It's possible that my annoyance about Snape's
death (beyond the mere fact that he died--I was pretty
sure he would, but that didn't mean I'd have to like it!) was
that this whole plan things strikes me as really faulty 
..er... planning.

That Draco accidently got the Mastery of the Wand doesn't
seem to me to impact the Snape factor in the plan at all.  
Voldemort didn't murder Snape *because* Draco had the
mastery.  He murdered Snape because he *thought* 
Snape had the mastery.  He would have thought that
according to Dumbledore's original plan, unless it was
also part of the plan for Voldemort to know that Snape
didn't really defeat Dumbledore after all.  But, of course
that wasn't part of the original plan, because Snape
killing Dumbledore was supposed to help solidify Snape's
position with Voldemort.

The only other thing that makes sense to me was that
Dumbledore hoped that Voldemort would think Snape
had mastery of the wand and would thus *not* attack
him, for fear that he would be defeated now that Snape
had that super wand.  

However, this doesn't seem likely to have been Dumbledore's
intent, as he left no provision in his will for Snape to have 
the wand.  Had he done so, then Snape would have had it,
instead of it being buried with Dumbledore.  Nor did 
Dumbledore leave instructions for the wand to be burned,
or broken in half, which he could easily have done if he 
desired that the wand be used by no one.  Did he think that
Voldemort would leave his tomb undesecrated and so leave
instructions to be buried with it?  That would make sense,
unless you knew that Voldemort was a power-hungry 
villain who has no qualms or respect for anyone besides 
himself.

And, moreover, that his most-favored Death Eater would,
by your own design, be in charge of your burial tomb, thus
providing him easy access to it.


Carol:
> Exactly what DD *did* anticipate is not clear, but it seems that in
> HBP (both at Hogsmeade before he sees the Dark Mark and on the tower),
> he wanted Snape to kill him, with only Harry present. (He starts to
> send Harry in his Invisibility Cloak to find Snape, tell him what
> happened, and speak to no one else. 

Montavilla47:
That's a very good point.  Do you think, in that case, that
Snape would have arrived and Dumbledore would laid his wand
down (thus preventing any possibility of the wand mastery 
passing) and explained to Harry what was going on?  

That actually makes sense as a plan.  Of course, Harry would 
be upset, but Dumbledore would have been able to explain
that he had been dying for some time, and that Snape was 
helping him out.  Which would have explained the trust
and would have helped out with that nasty problem of how
Snape was supposed to get Harry to believe him about DD's
final message. 

I like it.

Of course, it's anyone's bet whether Harry would have 
been able to listen at all--given that he'd only heard that
evening about Snape taking the prophecy to Voldemort.

Imagine the scene that would have been!

Carol:
> In any case, while DD expected LV to find out about the Elder Wand and
> go looking for it, he didn't necessarily expect him to *find* it. Nor
> would he have done so had it not been for two incidents that DD could
> not have anticipated: the backfiring wand in "Seven Potters" that
> sends LV searching for the wand (after torturing Ollivander) and
> Harry's dropping the photograph of Gellert Grindelwald at Bathilda's
> house, enabling LV to discover the identity of the merry-faced thief,
> whose whereabouts he still has to determine.

Montavilla47:
The problem I have with that scenario is that: 

1) Ollivander was kidnapped a year before Dumbledore died and
 at that point, Voldemort was likely to start looking for the wand.  
It's really odder that he didn't start looking until Malfoy's wand
was broken than that he started looking for it afterwards.  I mean,
this is the guy that went to Albania when he was young to search
for something a ghost told him about.

2) Gellert Grindelwald was pretty famous.  It's plausible that 
Harry doesn't know who the pretty blond boy was, because he's
Harry and he doesn't know much about or care about history at
all.  But Tom Riddle was all about power and greatness.  And
he was around when Grindelwald was at the height of his power.
And it's not like Grindelwald disappeared and changed his name.
Surely, there would have been lots of pictures of Grindelwald
as a young man.  (In fact, it's rather surprising that 
Gregorovich didn't recognize that face from photographs--
Grindelwald affected Wizards internationally and there
would have been biographies written about him in Bulgaria,
as well as England.)

While it turned out that Voldemort was stymied in his 
search, that was a lucky accident.  As a planner, Dumbledore
would need to assume the opposite--that it would take
Voldemort less, rather than more time to discover the 
trail--as it involved people Voldemort had already 
captured and people who could be easily identified
and found.

Carol:
> And then, once LV has found Grindelwald and stolen the wand from DD's
> grave, he still has to discover that the wand doesn't work properly
> for him (odd that he would even think that, considering how
> effectively he uses it to kill people and conjure Nagini's protective
> bubble) and arrive at the conclusion that Snape is the wand's master
> *before* Snape sees Nagini in her bubble. There was some risk to
> Snape, but his death was by no means inevitable, and had he been
> killed without imparting that key message to Harry, DD's plan would
> have failed altogether.
> 
> I think that Pippin must be right--DD intended for Snape to destroy
> the wand or hide it so that LV could never get it. (Snape could use
> Occlumency and cunning to protect himself from detection.) It's even
> possible that DD wanted Snape to kill LV if Harry failed though,
> admittedly, there's no direct evidence to support that particular
> speculation. Certainly, DD didn't want the wand buried with him where
> LV could obtain it by grave robbery.

Montavilla47:
Again, if that were the case, then Dumbledore should have 
communicated that to Snape.  He could have done so when he 
asked Snape to kill him.  Or, if he felt that was too much 
information at the time, then he could have easily put that 
request in his will--meaning that Snape wouldn't need to be
involved at all.  The thing would be done as a matter of course.

Had he wanted it hidden, he could have asked Snape beforehand--
or he could have asked Snape in his portrait form.  

Heh.  He could have left the wand to Harry in his will.  That would
have really annoyed Voldemort.  And it would have made that
whole "nobody kills Harry but me" order more sensible.

Carol:
> Potioncat askded for links to earlier posts on the subject. Here are
> two of mine:
> 
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/177716 (scroll to
> the last section; it's a long post) and
> 
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/174484
> 
> Carol, certain only that Snape's death was not part of DD's plan, as
> indicated by his words and attitude in "King's Cross" and the
> necessity for Snape to be alive to deliver his message to Harry
> which has a slightly different take on what DD's plan might have been.
>

Montavilla47:
Thanks for the links, Carol.  I want to believe, like you, that
Dumbledore's manipulative mindset is put to the service
of his love for others, Harry and Snape included.

And, it's not like he didn't love Moody, too.  And yet, he 
put Moody (along with a whole lot of other people
important to him and to Harry) into danger for a plan
that could easily, and did, go wrong.

I'm sure it's not easy to out-think someone like 
Voldemort, who is devious, brilliant, and insane.  But it
doesn't seem that difficult to figure out, if you have 
the world's best wand, that someone obsessed with
powerful trinkets is going to want to have it.  Nor does
it seem like a huge leap in logic to assume that 
Voldemort, who has no respect for other people's 
lives, would callously slaughter the person he thinks
stands in his way--even if that person is currenly
running Hogwarts.

Montavilla47