GoF CH 4-6 post DH look

[montavilla47]

No: HPFGUIDX 181756

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at ...> wrote:
>
> > Montavilla47:
> > 
> > Are you mad, Alla?  Nonsense?  Cauldron leakings is a serious 
> > business!  Just consider that there are approximately 300 
> > potions students  at any one year  in Snape's classroom.  They use
> > their cauldrons at least once a week, which is say, 40 times a year.
> > That's a 12,000 cauldron uses per year
> > 
> > At a 3% accident rate, that's 360 accidents a year, just in 
> > the classroom, to say nothing of the accidents that take place in
> > homes, apothecary shops, hospitals, and factories.
> 
> Pippin:
> Er, wait. The *failure* rate is increasing at 3% a year, not the
> overall number of cauldron failures. That is, if 100 cauldrons failed
> last year, 103 failed this year. But that's 103 cauldrons total, not
> three more cauldrons out of every hundred. See?
> 
> 
> Pippin


Montavilla47:
Of course you're right, Pippin.  But you can also see what a 
serious problem it is, even with a failure rate as low of 
three percent.  

Say the actual failure rate is only 1 percent, that would be
120 accidents per year in Snape's classroom (disregarding the
entire rest of the Wizarding community in Great Britain).  

And, if in GoF, that rate increased by three percent, it would
mean another 3+ accidents in OotP or 123.  126 in HBP, 129 in
DH.  By the time little Al started school, there would likely be
an average of 190 cauldron-bottom-related accidents at 
Hogwarts.  An increase of 70 accidents per year!

Honestly, silly as Percy's cauldron-bottom report sounds,
it's the only example I can think of in the entire series
where the Ministry seems to be doing something useful.