20 to 1 / Luna / An Animagus here, and an Animagus there, ee-eye-ee-eye-oh

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 182869

---  "pippin_999" <foxmoth at ...> wrote:
>
> 
> > Alla:
> > 
> > Indeed, if they were truly under Imperius that would mean
> > that they would have no wish to return. ... do we see such
> > people in canon? ...
> 
> Pippin:
> We hear about it from Hagrid. "People who was on his side came
> back ter ours. Some of 'em came outta kinda trances. Don' 
> reckon they could've done if he was comin' back." Later canon 
> makes it clear that Hagrid doesn't believe Lucius was entranced,
> so he must be talking about other people. 
> 
> Fake!Moody also says that the Ministry had a lot of problems 
> with the Imperius during the first war, and Sirius says in OOP
> that Voldemort tricks, jinxes and blackmails people into 
> joining him. 
> 
> I'm pretty sure Lupin's math is meant to include everyone who
> was helping Voldemort against the Order, willingly or not. The
> marked DE's were only a small fraction of Voldemort's forces, 
> IMO. 
> 
> Pippin
>

bboyminn:

It is my understanding that there are a couple of core questions
on the table. Let me see if I can summarize them -

First, were people who had been Imperiused in VWI then later
Imperiused in VWII? And how did they feel about that?

Well, I think there might have been a few, but it depends on
whether they were still in positions of power. Further, I
don't think they we too keen on the idea. I'm sure they were
extremely embarassed at the end of the first war at what
they had been made to do. So, they certainly would have no
desire to have that happen again. But if they were still in
positions of power, and has a know sensitivity to being put
under the curse, I'm sure they were. Again, much to their
great embarassment

Second, if we expand on Lupin '20 to 1' comment we come up 
with something like 420, if we take Lupin's statement 
literally rather than figuratively. Next we must give some
consideration to the actuall size of the British wizard
world.

I had always speculated 10's of thousands to a few hundred
thousand, but JKR implied that it was much smaller than that.
I would guess in the range of 4,000 to 6,000 or so. Now the
'20 to 1' comment implies 10% of the local population. I 
would say that it pretty significant. If 10%, especially
a very powerful and influential 10%, decided on revolution,
I think they could take over very quickly.

I live near a town of 15,000. If 1,500 armed and dangerous
people tried to take over with the coerced cooperation of
the police force and city administration, that take over
would occur pretty quickly. Long before the people had time
to marshal a resistance against them. 1,500 against a 
general population of 15,000 puts the 1,500 at a huge
advantage.

So, in a world of 4,000 to 6,000 people scattered across a
large country, 400 would be a substantial force. They don't
have to conquer each individual. They only have to control
the seats of power to effectively control everyone. Looking
at it another way, once they had control, each 'soldier'
would only have to police 10 other people.

So, I conclude that 400 represents a substantial force in
a community so small.

For what it's worth.

Steve/bboyminn