HBP CH 17-19 Post DH Look

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 184379

> 
> Alla:
> 
> Ouch. I was always angry at Dumbledore for not helping Sirius, but I
 honestly never connected this with Sirius' plight.
> 
> Now tell me, I am not crasy, right? This happened at least several 
> years earlier before Godric Hollow and Sirius' arrest? Yeah, math is
 not my strong suit either, lol.
> 
> SO if it is happened much earlier, Dumbledore already **knows** of 
> the precedent that somebody can be framed for murder. I mean, of 
> course circumstances are not exactly alike, but I believe that the 
> key point here is framing for murder. He extracted a memory with 
> legilimency and he did not even bother to try that with Sirius, who 
> was one of his soldiers? Ugh.

Pippin:
The tables are turned here. This time it's Dumbledore who failed to
shake off his usual patterns of thought and look beyond the obvious,
the obvious  being that Voldemort had already been vaporized and could
not possibly have modified the memories of all the Muggles who
testified that they'd seen Sirius murder Peter and twelve others.

Nor could Voldemort have persuaded James and Lily to make someone else
their Secret-keeper. If he could do that, he'd have just made them
hand over Harry.   

Unfortunately the memories of the Muggle witnesses  *were* modified,
after they'd given their testimony to the Ministry, so Dumbledore had
no chance of interviewing them himself or checking their memories in
the pensieve. The only witness left was Sirius, whose laughter
must have seemed  an outright confession. And again it was impossible
that Sirius's memories could have been modified by Voldemort. 

So this time, Dumbledore's habit of suspecting the hand of Voldemort
betrayed him, IMO. He knew that Voldemort could not have framed Sirius
for the murders, and omitted to consider that Sirius might have been
framed by someone else. 


We know that Dumbledore regards his emotional biases as a weakness.
Perhaps he did not go to see Sirius because he feared he would indeed
be moved by Sirius's plight despite believing him guilty. Though he's
certainly many times manipulated evidence and witnesses so that no
conviction took place, I do not recall that Dumbledore ever  helped a
person whom he believed to be guilty escape the law once they'd been
convicted of a crime. 
 
 Alla:
> 
> You sure about that Hagrid? I mean, as you kindly informed us 
> Dumbledore is not saying much, maybe you just reconstructed what you
 would like Dumbledore to think?
> 
> Because if he is so worried sick about kids getting hurt, maybe it 
> makes some sort of sense to apprehend the one who is hurting them?

Pippin:
I am sure Dumbledore would have liked very much to apprehend Voldemort.

  Draco is not the only student who could be hexed, tricked or
blackmailed into trying to kill someone. But he *is* the one that
Dumbledore knows about. Surely it's easier to keep an eye on one
suspect out of a thousand and prevent him from committing crimes when
you know who it is.  

Besides, as long as he's playing the "make Draco try to kill
Dumbledore" game, Voldemort won't start the "make Snape kill
Dumbledore and put the Carrows on the staff at Hogwarts" game. The
Carrows are indirectly responsible for the death of Crabbe -- how many
students would they have killed if they'd had more time?

 
> "And Harry Potter's now having an argument with his Keeper," said 
> Luna serenely, while both Hufflepuffs and Slytherins below in the 
> crowd cheered and jeered. " I don't think that' ll help him find the
 Snitch, but maybe it's a clever ruse..." - p.414
> 

Pippin:
Nothing to add to your comment on Luna, but this is a moment where
Slytherin and Hufflepuff show some solidarity.

Pippin