HBP chapters 24-26 Post DH look

[Carol]

No: HPFGUIDX 184453

Pippin wrote:
> True. Dumbledore knows that Trelawney can make predictions  based on
magic as well as on ordinary intuition and applied psychology
disguised as magic. Such magical predictions are rare and curious, and
certainly worthy of study, though he may politely doubt that the
ability to make them can be taught.
> 
> But does he think that such predictions are reliable? He knows that
some have come true. But does he believe that they *must* come true? 

Carol responds:
As I said, he knows that some prophecies have not come true and that
Prophecies are ambiguously worded and can be fulfilled in different
ways. He also knows, I think, that the moment someone acts to thwart
or fulfill a Prophecy, the Prophecy is set in motion. In "Oedipus
Rex," exposing the baby in hopes that he'll die sets in motion the
events that will lead to his marrying a woman he doesn't know is his
mother and killing a man he doesn't know in his father. In real life,
King Croesus was told by an oracle that he would destroy a great army,
so he fought the Persians thinking that he would defeat them, but the
great army he destroyed was his own. Would "the old Muggle lover" be
familiar with those prophecies and others more closely connected with
the WW? I think he would. I'm quite sure that he studied the Prophecy
very carefully, and not just the part that Voldemort overheard. He may
have ignored it before Snape told him that Voldemort interpreted it to
apply to the Potter child, but he certainly didn't ignore it after
that, especially after the first part of it came true and Voldemort
"marked [Harry] as his equal." What, DD would think, is "the power
that the Dark Lord knows not"? Obviously, love. Ergo, Love Magic would
be Harry's best protection. Certainly, it was the reason that he
survived. (Lily must have sacrificed herself for him in some unique
way related to LV's promise to Snape or Harry would not have
survived.) And what does "marked him as his equal" mean? I don't think
that Dumbledore would have figured out that the cut on Harry's
forehead was anything more than the gash left by the escaping AK (it
can't be the AK entering Harry--that wouldn't leave a mark) even
though he suspected that LV had made at least one Horcrux and probably
more and knew that LV's soul was unstable because of all the murders
he'd committed, two of them recently, *unless* he also knew the
Prophecy. Harry would be marked, via his scar, as Voldemort's equal.
that must mean that Voldemort had inadvertently given him powers in
some way equal to his own. How? Through the cut that became a scar.
Something must have entered Harry that gave him those powers. What
could it be? A soul bit from the unstable soul must somehow have
lodged in Harry's soon-to-be scar, making him an accidental Horcrux of
sorts. that, in addition to Voldemort's belief in the Prophecy, would
entitle Harry to extra protection. The soul bit would one day need to
be destroyed, but until then, whatever special powers Harry had must
be discovered and nurtured so that they could ultimately be used
against Voldemort. There was always hope that "either must die at the
hand of the other" did not mean that both must die.

Pippin:
> Does he ever shape his plans in response to a prediction itself,
rather than his guess as to how someone else will respond to it?

Carol:
He can hardly shape any plans in response to Trelawney's second
prophecy, which has already been fulfilled before he even hears about
it. As for her cartomancy in HBP, he knows better than she does that
catastrophe is approaching via Draco Malfoy, and he's doing his best
to prevent it. But the Prophecy about Harry as "the one with the
power" is another matter. The fact that Voldemort has responded to it
is important not only because Dumbledore now knows that he'll go after
Harry. Voldemort has *activated* the Prophecy by trying to thwart it,
and certain predictions have already come true. It's up to Dumbledore
to make sure that the Prophecy is fulfilled the way he wants it to be,
with Harry destroying Voldemort, whether or not Harry dies in the process.

Carol earlier:
> > at least in Harry's destiny as the Chosen One. Granted, he
suggested the Fidelius Charm to the Potters because Snape had informed
them that they were in danger, not because he believed the Prophecy,
but he apparently took no such precautions with the Longbottoms or
other Order members who were in equal danger. 
> 
> Pippin:
> But they weren't in equal danger because Voldemort had decided that
the prophecy applied to the Potters only. If Dumbledore had believed
in the prophecy himself, he would have thought that Neville had just
as much chance of being the Chosen One, and he would have protected
Neville accordingly. Further, if he had believed it, he would have
placed Lily and James under special protection before being warned by
Snape.

Carol responds:

All of the Order members were in just as much danger as the Potters as
the deaths of many of them illustrate. Harry was the only child who
was specifically targeted, but many other people were on LV's hit
list, just like Amelia Bones in HBP. And once LV decided to kill you,
you were as good as dead. IMO, Dumbledore attempted to extend special
protection to the Potters not just because Voldemort was specifically
targeting the Potters (and because he had promised Snape to do so and
wanted Snape as his spy) but because he already saw the possibility
that Harry might become "the one with the power to vanquish the Dark
Lord." And when the first part of the Prophecy fulfilled itself at
Godric's Hollow, I think he made it his business to study the Prophecy
and all its possible implications. The Prophecy explained how Harry
had survived (Love magic) and revealed what would be his best
protection (more Love magic). The Prophecy revealed that Voldemort had
(inadvertently) given Harry powers equal to his own, unique to him and
Voldemort. The scar was more than a scar and could, as DD tells
McGonagall, be useful. (How useful, and exactly what was in the scar,
he did not say.)

>  
> 
> Carol:
> He took care that Baby!Harry was removed from Wizarding society,
> hidden from the DEs and protected by Love magic until he was old
> enough to go to Hogwarts (and still protected while he was at 4 Privet
> Drive until he was seventeen).
> > Agin, that could be because Voldemort believed in the Prophecy and
> was targeting Harry, but I don't think that was his only motive. 
> 
> Pippin:
> Why wouldn't that be enough? The Dumbledore family chose to keep
Ariana where she was loved instead of at St Mungo's where she would be
safe, and two people died as a result. Dumbledore would not make the
same mistake with Harry.

Carol:
But not just because Harry was another innocent whose life Voldemort
had decided to take. Harry was a special case. He had survived
Voldemort's AK, which had rebounded on Voldemort, who would some day
return and destroy Harry because he believed him to be the Chosen One.
But, so what? What did it matter to Dumbledore if many innocent lives
were destroyed, including Harry's? It mattered because Harry and Harry
alone might weel have "the power to vanquish the Dark Lord." He wasn't
just an innocent child who might be murdered as the McKinnon children
were murdered. Their deaths, however tragic, made no difference to
"the greater good." But Harry's death, while it would destroy a
Horcrux, would also destroy the one with "the power that the Dark Lord
knows not," not to mention the one with the scar that might be the key
to destroying Voldemort permanently. 

Pippin: 
>  I agree that Dumbledore probably suspected at once that Harry had a
soul bit stuck in him, and that this was an additional reason that
Harry needed protection from his fellow wizards, but DD wouldn't need
the prophecy to tell him that. He already knew  that murder and
horcrux construction make the soul unstable, and he would have
suspected that Voldemort had made a horcrux since he suspected that
Voldemort wasn't dead. <snip>

Carol responds:
I've already stated that I think Dumbledore needed the part of the
Prophecy about LV marking Harry as his equal to realize that a soul
bit had lodged in Harry. But, IMO, he also needed the Prophecy to
realize that the soul bit could be useful in defeating Voldemort,
giving Harry powers and insights that no other Wizard had. Otherwise,
Harry, though an innocent child, would be nothing more to Dumbledore
than an accidental Horcrux whose destruction was necessary to make
Voldemort mortal. As long as Horcrux!Harry lived, Voldemort could not
be killed. Without the Prophecy, which tells Dumbledore that Harry's
unique powers can be used against Voldemort, and are, in fact,
necessary to the defeat of Voldemort, Harry's death would be more
useful to the greater good than his life. IMO, Harry's survival at
Godric's Hollow in the context of the Prophecy indicates to Dumbledore
that Harry is the Chosen One, that he is more important than the other
victims for this reason, and that, desirable as it might be to destroy
the soul bit or allow it to be destroyed (a second AK fired by a DE
rather than LV himself would not rebound), Harry's life must be
preserved long enough to train him for the inevitable confrontation.
I'm not saying that Dumbledore would have murdered Harry himself, but
he would not have taken extraordinary measures to protect the life of
a living Horcrux if he did not think that the boy with the scar would
eventually bring Voldemort down. 



> Pippin:
> It isn't just Harry who's in danger from the soul bit, it's the
whole WW. That's reason enough for the protection. If Voldemort, or
anyone else, had realized that Harry had potentially all the powers of
Voldemort, Harry would have become the target for all kinds of schemes. 

Carol responds:
True. But it's only the Prophecy that enables Dumbledore to know that
the soul bit requires protection as the source of Harry's unique
powers rather than destruction like the soul bits in the deliberately
created Horcruxes. Now that Dumbledore is a cruel or evil man, but
he's cold and manipulative, and if the greater good required the
sacrifice of an infant, he would let the infant be killed, assuming
that he figured out that a soul bit had entered through the cut. What
he would figure out with only the information Snape had given him was
that Harry had survived through Love magic. He would not figure out
that the scar was more than a scar. It had nothing to do with his
miraculous survival. But with the Prophecy, combined with his prior
knowledge of Voldemort's Horcruxes (surely more than one given the
alteration in his appearance), he could figure out what had happened
and conclude that this particular "Horcrux" must be protected rather
than destroyed, at least until DD could finish training him as "a pig
to the slaughter."

Pippin: 
> Dumbledore did hope that Harry would become capable of eliminating
Voldemort so that his death, required by the presence of the soul bit,
would serve some purpose. 

Carol:
But why believe that Harry would become capable of eliminating
Voldemort if there's no Prophecy? Sure, he's the Boy Who Lived, but
that has nothing to do with ultimately defeating Voldemort. That's
just Voldemort's broken promise to Snape combined with Lily's
self-sacrifice. That in itself doesn't entitle Harry to special
protection even though Voldemort believes that he's the one with the
power unless Dumbledore also believes it. A lot of other people are
also being targeted by the remaining DEs and will be targeted when LV
returns. But Dumbledore takes special precautions regarding Harry,
keeping him out of the hands of supposed DE Sirius Black, whom DD
undoubtedly suspects will kill him. What a convenient way to get rid
of the infant Horcrux: let Sirius Black drop him in the English
Channel as they fly over it on his motorcycle. Dumbledore's hands will
be clean. Instead, he chooses to protect the child he knows, via the
Prophecy, to be the only person capable of defeating Voldemort. (Not
without help and guidance, of course.)

Pippin:
<snip> Naturally JKR has every intention of seeing the prophecy
fulfilled, and of forcing us to accept her reading in order to see it
as fulfilled. 

Carol:
Naturally. However, there's no way she can force me to believe that
"Neither can live while the other survives" means that one must kill
the other! (FWIW, I agree that it means that Voldemort, at least, is
not fully alive while Harry survives. Perhaps Harry isn't fully alive,
either. But JKR treats that line, which, as you point out, Voldemort
never heard, as the heart of the Prophecy, the part that means Harry
must either "murder" or be murdered. That's an example of *JKR's*
convoluted thinking. But much of the rest of the Prophecy is properly
ambiguous, leaving it open to fulfillment in a variety of unexpected ways.

Pippin: 
> That's really the only point of having a prophecy  in the story at
all, IMO, since as Hermione points out it's not very magical to be
able to predict the future when you are in complete control of events.

Carol responds:
I disagree. The Prophecy is extremely important as a plot device. Not
only does it set up the Snape subplot, it also sets up the protections
on Harry and gives Voldemort a motive for specifically targeting him
and Dumbledore a reason for specifically protecting him. It explains
how Dumbledore knows that Harry's scar is something more than a curse
scar and that Love magic is Harry's best protection.

Sure, the reader knows by the time he actually reads the Prophecy that
Harry has a unique relationship to Voldemort and a connection through
his scar. He knows that Voldemort is trying to kill Harry and that one
day Harry and Voldemort will have a final showdown. But the Prophecy
explains why Voldemort was particularly targeting Harry rather than
his parents (though James would have been murdered in any case, and so
would Lily as a matter of course if it hadn't been for Snape). It also
explains why Dumbledore singles Harry out for special training and
protection not given to others whose parents have been killed by
Voldemort and why he keeps Trelawney on the staff when he ostensibly
doesn't believe in Divination (or, as you suggest, doesn't believe
that Divination can be taught). And, of course, learning that Snape
revealed the (partial) Prophecy to LV gives Harry an additional reason
to hate him and both Harry and the reader additional reason to think
that Snape is evil when he kills Dumbledore. A very useful and
integral part of the plot, I'd say. And, of course, it has to be
fulfilled in some way in the end.

Carol, wishing she had time to edit this post to eliminate repetiveness