First lesson WAS: Re: Marietta, was Slytherin's Reputation

[Geoff Bannister]

No: HPFGUIDX 185886

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Zara" <zgirnius at ...> wrote:
>
> > Alla:
> > No, it is not my job to prove the negative. You argued that Snape 
> > routinely asks these questions, so the burden is on you (generic you 
> > of course) to prove the point. Because if not I can argue to use 
> > Magpie hilarious example that Snape routinely beats students over the 
> > head with the cauldron and please, prove that he does not. After all 
> > we do not see all potions classes, don"t we?
> 
> Zara:
> I disagree. We have shown that in all first days of class shown in the 
> text of the series, of which there are two, Snape does ask questions 
> about the material of *THAT YEAR*. Non-verbal spells are not even 
> mentioned as part of the OWL curriculum. They appear for the first time 
> in NEWT classes, and presto, in the first NEWT class of a group of 
> students in HBP, he asks a question about them. So our case is 
> supported. Your argument, as far as I can see, is a form of special 
> pleading that, somehow, his first class teaching new NEWT DADA students 
> is "different". Since the characters, dialogue, and setting of ANY 
> group of scenes are bound to not be identical in some way, you are 
> setting an unreasonable burden of proof.
> 
> WE can't know for sure that he does this in ALL classes, but we have 
> sertainly made it plausible that he has done this on more than one 
> different occasion, which is the best anyone can do without more 
> scenes, it seems to me.

Geoff:
I think we are in an "agree to disagree" situation. Neither of you can 
really draw any sensible, concrete conclusions from the size of the 
statistical sample.

We know that Slytherin/Gryffindor take Potions together up to the fifth 
year. One can therefore assume that Ravenclaw/Hufflepuff act as a 
second pairing.

So, for any one academic year, each year up to the the fifth has two 
"first Potions classes of the year", a total of ten. Assuming that the 
Sixth Year classes have only one group per year, that makes twelve 
classes fitting this description per year.

We have a snapshot of two "first classes" separated by five years. 
Discounting Harry's Upper Sixth year when he wasn't there this 
covers seventy two "first class of year" situations.

Hence we are only seeing Snape handling a "first class" in 2.78% of
the total from which I think that drawing any conclusion about 
Snape's usual practice is untenable.