[HPforGrownups] So Exactly how many students ARE there at Hogwartz?

[Bart Lidofsky]

No: HPFGUIDX 191555

On 12/19/2011 3:25 PM, sigurd at eclipse.net wrote:
> Now for the fun part. If we assume that Hogwarts matriculates pretty much everyone they take in (disregarding  those students petrified, killed, transformed, driven mad, folded, stapled, spindled and mutilated) then we have to assume the replacements year to year equal the graduates or 1/7 of the total or 400/7 = 60 new students each year.  Note that we never hear of someone getting expelled, or deciding that he'd rather be a CPA than a wizard, or going off to study pottery making from the Uke-Uke-Fiduke people in Bongo Congo) and so we can assume the population is pretty stable.

Bart:
     It appears like it's more like 40 or so students each year attend 
Hogwarts (4-6 of each gender in each house).. Now, we don't know how 
many parents home-school their kids, how many squibs there are (although 
it's supposed to be rare), or how many Muggleborn attend Hogwarts. 
However, given the somewhat longer lifespan and greater general health 
of wizards, and the mention that the population has been shrinking, a 
population of 3-4,000 makes more sense in the WW. It also appears that 
the WW health system is superior in pretty much every way except 
dentistry to the Muggle world, which would tend to make wizard couples 
fertile longer.

     Bart




>
> So, if there are 60 new students each year drawn in from the ecumene of the Old Empire, (India, Kenya, Hong Kong etc) then that means that the English ecumene has 60 new children each year moving into the education system, which assuming they all survive to school hood (I realize a big assumption, but work with it for a moment), we have another problem.
>
> Contrary to popular opinion for there to be 0 population growth it does not mean that each couple can have only 2 children. They must have 2.43 children. The reason is simple- infant mortality is still a factor, accidental death, infertility, illness, voluntary celibacy, and a host of other factors intervene to carry off a lot of kids or at least render unreproducable through various situations. Plus, for the Magics, there are squibs produced to wizarding families, so  let's just deal with big numbers. (Though remember wizarding kids are also born to muggle families). But on the other hand while Muggles deal with gangs, guns, and school violence, they do not come up with things which on a day to day basis will eat you so....
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> But let's assume that Hogwarts gets its 60 students each year, that means that new children are produced at at LEAST 60 a year to keep the classes filled, for each year 60 graduate, 60 are inducted etc.   Now assuming wizarding females are no less fecund than humans, that means that the prime reproduction period for a wizarding female is 20 years (18 to 38) So that means in that 20 years times 60 (for the number of kids inducted into Hogwarts) there will be produced 1200 little wizards which divided by 2.4 means about 500 reproducing couples (regardless if they are married or just sow a lot of wild oats)  or 1,000 wizards throughout the British Ecumene.
>
> I notice that there is also a School in France, a School in Northern Europe, and Parvati hints at wizarding schools elsewhere. (But apparently no wizarding schools in the United States, nor any transfer students from the US to Britain) so.... that may be an indication of the alleged population of wizards world-wide.
>
> Now with a thousand wizards scattered throughout England--it seems they are all working for the Ministry of Magic.
>
> So everyone in the wizarding world has a "government job" except for those in the trades in Hogsmead, and Diagon Ally and the other wizarding communities.
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> But Wait a minute-- just from the people we've seen there's not enough wizards in this world to go around!
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> But if the "Houses in Hogwarts" are much larger to allow for a greater number of wizards, then there has to be a lot more teachers to teach them, maybe 30 or 40....
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> Interesting.
>
> It's why you don't want to go down certain paths when you're dealing with magic.
>
> Otto
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