Truth, Lies, and Drinking Games back to HP

[Olivier Fouquet]

 > Mind you, the speedy responses tends to reinforce my suspicions about
 > mega-LOONic tendencies lurking beneath the surface of those with a
 > mathematical bent. I reported earlier that the Fibonacci series was 
considered
 > for inclusion into the game but was eventually discarded. One of the 
main
 > reasons why was that 1 occurs twice in the series and agreement could 
not
 > be reached as to whether "Argh" or "Argh Argh" was the correct 
designation.
 > To an outsider it's amazing that in a numbers game there can be so 
many
 >contentious issues with the first number to be uttered.
 >One can only stand bemused and somewhat impressed.

 >Kneasy

Olivier
Our mega-LOONic tendencies, if proven, probably arise from the very 
special and intimate relationship we feel we have with truth. To us 
alone she is a faithful mistress (or so is our common delusion, Cantor, 
Nash and Grothendieck might have their own insights).

That said, I have been regularly asked if JKR notorious clumsiness with 
numbers and all things math bothered me, as I was supposedly the kind 
of being that immediately compute the relative ages of the Weasley 
children and readily cries foul when Charlie is seen to be either too 
old or too young. Surprisingly enough for my interlocutors though, the 
answer was not at all. Works of fictions, as far as I am concerned, 
have every right to twist and turn math as long as they feel right. To 
me Hogwarts feels right even though it is immediately clear that 
McGonagall cannot possibly teach that many classes.

On the other hand, I must confess some deeply rooted scepticism towards 
theorising. Not that it isn't funny, why would I be here if it wasn't, 
but simply because I'm not sure ordinary methods of inquiry really 
apply when dealing with fictions.

Even the best argued theories, even those that would make good and 
exciting stories, I don't buy. I feel we simply have no way of entering 
JKR's head. Besides, those here who have tried their luck at either 
fan-fiction or original fiction might have discovered that turning a 
plot into a story is no mean feat. And theories, I feel, are basically 
plot lines.

I'll give an example. Take say Vampire!Snape. A nice theory IMHO. 
Explains a lot, plausible, lots of hints, could very well make a good 
story (what with Harry discovering that Snape has dark secrets, 
suspecting him of collaboration with Voldemort only to discover that he 
was in fact trying to hide his vampire nature). Yet I don't buy it if 
only on probabilistic grounds. I feel there are dozens of good story 
lines that could potentially accommodate our dear Severus and I am not 
bold enough to immerse myself in JKR's thoughts and say that she has 
chosen that particular one.

My refusing of theorising does not preclude me for playing some kind of 
guessing game though. But when doing this, I actually rely on very 
broad and general impressions about the books. I would have bet (and 
indeed have on HPFGU) that Ron would enter the Quidditch team and suck 
at it or that the death in OotP would be a direct consequence of 
Harry's failure to do something. That's when general impressions turn 
out to be correct. I also said Hermione would fail in some extent with 
SPEW (a very generous mind could give that one, but I expected a much 
more spectacular failure) and that Sirius would most certainly not die.

Then come truth and lies, and GulPlum's very interesting observation 
that villains don't lie in HP. This seems to me perfectly natural from 
a writer that is trying to play game with her readers. JKR seemingly 
enjoys the fans guessing game, so she plants clue. But it would be 
utterly unfair to write deliberate falsehoods to confuse our poor 
souls. If everything at the end of the book turns out to have been 
false, what is the point in guessing? On the contrary, if everything 
turns out to have been just the way we thought, but not the way we 
interpreted, it is a nicely constructed mystery. I particularly admire 
PoA in that respect. The reader is slowly induced in believing that 
Sirius Black, the black dog,   Crookshanks and Lupin are all in the 
same league, and this is indeed true. So inasmuch as she is writing 
mysteries, JKR has very good reasons to have her culprits tell the 
truth.

That said, I don't believe she is writing primarily a mystery story, 
but then again, I don't believe in anything.

'xcept maybe deux et deux sont quatre, Sganarelle; et quatre et quatre 
sont huit.

Olivier



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