Mysteries (was: Truth, Lies and GIGO)

[nkafkafi]

Kneasy wrote:
> <snipped>
> All in all the centaurs may be the best paradigm for the discerning
reader.
> "The planets have been read wrongly before now, even by centaurs." 
> 
> The Forbidden Forest/Centaur episode in PS/SS gives us the impression
> that the centaurs believed that Harry should have been left to the
tender 
> mercies of Quirrell!Mort (and therefore probably death) because to
> interfere would be to thwart the future *as they read it* in the
stars. Harry
> gives confirmation (as he sees it):
> 
> "Firenze saved me, but he shouldn't have done ... Bane was furious
... he
> was talking about interfering with what the planets say is going to
happen 
> ... they must show Voldemort's coming back ... Bane thinks Firenze
should
> have let Voldemort kill me ... I suppose that's written in the stars
as well."
> 
> (Note that the "they must show Voldemort's coming back" is Harry's
making
> an assumption (though a  reasonable one). Although we know that Voldy
> could probably not have killed Harry - there's that protection that
at the
> time neither he nor we knew about. Nor did the centaurs. Mm. Would
later 
> events be significantly altered if Voldy had dis-corporated in the
Forest 
> rather than in the dungeons?
> Far fetched but intriguing. Did Firenze's in some way act *ensure*
Voldy's 
> return? 
> Experts on cause, effect and unintended consequences might like to
comment.)
> 
> OK. The centaur episode - which way do you want to take it?
> 1. It's a clue - Voldy will kill Harry at some time in the future
even though
> characters attempt to deny the inevitable.
> 2. It's a clue - no forecast or prophecy is an inevitability and the
interference
> of Firenze (and others in other situations?) has nullified the
future as foretold.
> 
> If the latter then how many of the 'givens' of the plot can we be
confident of?
> If the former - it'd be nice to know exactly what the stars said,
wouldn't it?


Neri:
The dilemma you pointed is actually even worse because of JKR's use,
or rather un-use, of Firenze in OotP. The Firenze subplot in OotP
simply doesn't go anywhere. It's one reason out of many why OotP was a
bit disappointing, a transitional book rather than standing by itself.
Why put a rebellious centaur as a divination teacher at Hogwarts when
he does not alter the plot of the book in any way, nor teaches us
anything substantial? The only reason I can think of is as a
preparation for Books 6 and 7. There are two possible roles that I see
Firenze playing in these books: he can help reinterpreting the
prophecy, and he can help recruit the centaurs as allies if they can
get over their fatalism and separationism.   

Your dilemma is the classic paradox between Fate and Choice: if the
prophecy and the positions of the stars are true, what's the point of
trying to alter them? If they aren't, then they're all just a bunch of
red herrings. Since I doubt JKR believes in Fate and prophecies in RL,
the dilemma here is literary rather than philosophical. You've pointed
yourself at the elegant solution from the literary POV: the positions
of the stars and the prophecy ARE true, and it's only their
interpretation by mere humans (and mere centaurs) that is incorrect.
This is what Firenze suggests when saying "The planets have been read
wrongly before now, even by centaurs" and he repeats and stresses this
in his lesson in OotP: "...and finished by telling them that it was
foolish to put much faith in such things anyway, because even centaurs
sometimes read them wrongly <snip> His priority did not seem to be to
tell them what he knew, but rather to impress upon them that nothing,
not even centaur knowledge, is foolproof". Firenze never says the
signs aren't true, he says the centaurs might be reading them wrongly. 

This is similar to the way the baddies speak literal Truth and let us
interpret it in the wrong way. The magical devices do the same. The
map doesn't lie when saying that "Bartemious Crouch" is in Snape's
office. It just lets Harry and us jump to the conclusion that it's the
Crouch we know. A very smart reader who reads this for the first time,
and remembers Lupin's assertion that "the map never lies" can realize
that this person might not be the Bartemious Crouch that we know, BUT
it must be a Bartemious Crouch. From this realization solving the GoF
mystery would have been possible. OTOH, this hypothetical smart reader
could also say with perfect logic: "well, we have no guarantee that
Lupin didn't lie when he said the map never lies", and he could even
support this with several suspicious canon details about the map (such
as why the twins never saw Peter!Scabbers in the Gryffindor
dormitories or why Lupin didn't see him in Hagrid's hut). But the
conclusion that would be drawn from this is that it might be any
person in Snape's office, or no person at all. This wouldn't be fair
play by JKR, and it wouldn't be a fun puzzle to solve. Assuming the
map can lie would have prevented the hypothetical reader from solving
the GoF mystery because he wouldn't have enough information. In a
similar way, if the prophecy is incorrect, or faked by DD, then
there's probably not enough information to solve the main mystery and
it's not fun. If JKR plays fair then the prophecy is true, but not
necessarily in the sense we think it is.
 
The centaurs represent fatalism, and Firenze is a rebel who made the
Choice to interfere and do what he thinks is right, even if he'd be
banned for it. He interferes not because he has an alternative
interpretation to the stars that he thinks is the correct one. It
seems he doesn't know how to interpret them in a way that would
justify his choice. Nor is he a rebel to the point of thinking that
the stars predict nothing and centaur knowledge is complete rubbish.
Basically he's just doing what's right, and hopes that the orthodox
interpretation is somehow incorrect.

And I'd add: if DD knows (or thinks he knows) what he's doing, why
does he need a baffled centaur as a pet prophet? I suspect DD might be
as baffled as Firenze.

Neri