The curious incident of the Felix Felicis in the nighttime

[bluesqueak]

This post is carrying on Aberforth's Goat's baahing from: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/the_old_crowd/message/2306 
where he suggested that Hermione letting Snape up to the Tower 
was/had to be the *right* thing to do - because she was under Felix 
Felicis at the time. It also owes quite a bit to my co-defence 
counsel at Accio, Serena Culfeather, as a lot of this was worked out 
when defending the unavoidably absent Snape in the Snape Trial 
there - though the Felix Felicis part ended up being not used.

The action/effects of Felix Felicis is described in HBP Ch. 9, pp. 
177-178 (UK edition - all page numbers following are the UK 
editions).  Ch. 22 pp. 446 – 459 gives Harry's pov account of what 
it's like to be under the influence. The summary version of these 
two chapters is that - even if you don't know why you're doing that 
action, Felix Felicis makes you take the most felicitous action. 

In HBP Ch. 25, p.516 Harry asks Ron, Hermione to take the potion and 
asks them to give Ginny some. In Ch. 29 p. 571 Ginny obligingly 
states that she did take some, and in Ch. 28 p. 558 we get to see 
corroborating evidence the stuff was probably working – Ginny is 
dodging hex after hex. More corroborating evidence – Ron and Ginny 
(with Neville) `luckily' run into OOP members immediately they break 
free of the Peruvian darkness (HBP, Ch. 29, p.576)

During the timeline in which FF should be in effect (given that Ch. 
9 states Harry's bottle contains 12 hours, Harry takes 3 hours in 
Ch. 22 and the remaining 9 hours are shared between three people) –

- Ron and Ginny have the DE's get past them. (HBP Ch. 29, p.576)

- Hermione `allows' Snape to go to tower, believing Snape's story of 
Flitwick's passing out. (HBP Ch. 29 pp.577 – 578). Incidentally, two 
separate people state that Flitwick was sent to Snape (McGonagall 
and Hermione), and that he has been injured is also mentioned by 
Ginny. 

Looking first at the problem of *why* Ron and Ginny, dosed up to the 
nines with 'lucky juice', still allowed the DE's to get past them. 
Allowing the DE's into Hogwarts is what sets the Dark Mark off. It's 
a DE, Gibbon, who does that - *not* Draco (does Draco actually know 
how?) 

The sighting of the Dark Mark means Dumbledore chooses to fly into 
Hogwarts (and has the adrenalin energy to do it), rather than 
remaining at the Three Broomsticks alone with an Imperius'd 
Rosemerta. (HBP Ch. 27 p.543) 

So I'd say that, unknown to Ron and Ginny, they've made the right 
choice in letting the DE's in. 

Continuing on the DE's being let in: Snape is not one of the Order 
members on patrol. Dumbledore knows he has remained in his rooms 
(and may have ordered him to do so) because Dumbledore asks Harry 
to `wake' Severus. (HBP Ch. 27 p. 545).  Allowing the DE's in also 
causes Flitwick to be sent to fetch Snape. This may have occurred 
before Harry could possibly have reached Snape, even if he hadn't 
been immobilised. I've not been able to work out the timeline here, 
but, interestingly, Hermione mentions that it was 'nearly 
midnight'(HBP Ch. 29, p.577). 

Moving on to Hermione letting Snape get past her.  Unless we are 
asked to believe that Hermione did not take the Felix potion when 
requested, or that it had ceased operation before Ginny's dose did, 
her action, as Mike Gray points out, allows Snape to reach 
Dumbledore at the Astronomy tower. The conclusion from the known 
actions of Felix Felicis is that this action of Hermione's was 
somehow `lucky'. Additional evidence that FF was in operation is 
that caring for Flitwick `luckily' kept Hermione out of the OOP/DE 
fight. 

Snape was meant to get to the Tower. That was the luckiest thing 
that could happen. 

OK, what would have happened if he hadn't got there? 

Well, the first point to note is that Dumbledore is surrounded by 
murderous enemies – Greyback has to be hit with a spell to stop him 
attacking Dumbledore (HBP Ch. 27 p. 555). If Draco hadn't cut the 
mustard (which he obviously couldn't), Dumbledore would certainly 
have been attacked with murderous intent, and given his weakened 
state and the number of DE's, very probably he'd have been killed.

Since the UV would not have been fulfilled, both Snape and 
Dumbledore would have died. Looking at Snape's actions after 
Dumbledore's death: one thing that strikes the eye is that he 
immediately pulls the DE's out of Hogwarts (HBP Ch 28 pp.557 – 558). 
Would that have happened if he'd been dead? Or would the DE's (who 
include Fenrir Greyback, so fond of children) have stayed and done 
as much damage as possible to both school and pupils?

Snape also isn't seen to cast a single spell or jinx on any Order 
member - which is kinda interesting.

So - no Snape. Both Snape and Dumbledore are dead, dead, dead. With 
no DE having any particular desire to leave ('But you know how much 
I like kids, Dumbledore' HBP Ch. 27, p 554), the DE's rampage around 
Hogwarts in a running battle with the Order. How many die from that? 
How many students die or are bitten? What state is the Order in 
after this (presumably) major disaster?

With added Snape - Dumbledore is dead. Snape has survived, can pull 
the DE's out, leaving the Order battered with its leader dead, but 
still intact. And the Hogwarts students all survive.

The conclusion is that Snape killing Dumbledore was the luckiest 
thing that could happen.

Pip!Squeak

"Where do you think I would have been all these years, if I had not 
known how to act?" - Severus Snape