The curious incident of the Felix Felicis in the nighttime

[bluesqueak]

Nora writes:
> 
> To play devil's advocate, I'd say the potential weakness of this 
> analysis is with the massive extent of the luck, as well as the 
overall 
> perspective--lucky for whom?
> 

Well, indeed.
> That is to say, it is indeed lucky that Hermione et al. survive in 
> the way that they do, probably because of the potion.  But I don't 
> know if we can say that, therefore, *all* the resultant events are 
> influenced by their luck.  Is there a limit to the ambient effects 
> of Felix Felicis?  Does it have such drastic effects all the way 
> down the chain of causality, fairly removed from the immediate  
> vicinity of those who have taken it?  

Pip!Squeaks:

Dunno. But several apparently 'luckier' alternatives occur to me in 
the above scenario. 

1. Draco comes out of the Room of Requirements and *doesn't* see 
Ginny and Ron [uh, how unlucky was that. Gosh, Ginny and Ron don't 
realise to keep watch where Draco can't see them... how unlike, say, 
Harry realising he needed to go to the vegetable patch]. Ginny and 
Ron dive on him, discover the details of the cabinet, and run to 
find the Order, luckily just running into them (as they did). The 
DE's don't get in, Ginny and Ron get another Special Award for 
services to the school, and there's cake and lashings of ginger beer 
all round. 

That's a very lucky outcome for Ron and Ginny. And it doesn't 
require much stretching of the chain of causality, just a few little 
hints from Felix. Why didn't it happen?

2. Snape comes out of the room and tells Hermione to check Flitwick. 
Hermione, prompted by Felix, decides to use Expelliamus, 'luckily' 
outdrawing Snape, 'luckily' overeggs the pudding, and Snape is 
thrown backwards, hitting his head against the wall... oops, sorry, 
we've used that plot device before, haven't we?

[Anyone else starting to wonder if Harry's christening involved him 
being dunked in a lifetime's supply of Felix {g}?]

But, getting back to Hermione - Flitwick doesn't notice her and 
Luna. Why? Again, that suggests time was pressing, Flitwick getting 
to Snape quickly was somehow lucky for Hermione. Why? Surely if it 
*wasn't*, Felix would have hinted to Hermione that she should - 
well, stand in a part of the corridor where Flitwick, rushing down 
without really seeing her, cannons into her and bounces off the 
wall, knocks himself out, or is otherwise stopped. 

Without Flitwick's message, Snape would never have even known the 
DE's were in Hogwarts. And in case we haven't grasped that, 
McGonagall kindly spells it out for us, 'If I hadn't alerted Snape 
to what was going on, he might never have joined forces with the 
Death Eaters. I don't think he knew they were there before Filius 
told him, I don't think he knew they were coming.' (HBP Ch. 29 p.575)

Felix successfully guided Harry through a series of actions that led 
to him getting the Pensieve memory. Very often, the action he took 
wasn't apparently 'lucky', but turned out to be. Very often, the 
actions of others are involved. For example, Filch 'luckily' leaves 
the front door unlocked. This isn't lucky for Filch, but it is lucky 
for Harry. Equally, you could argue that dying might not have been 
too lucky for Dumbledore, but somehow seems to have been 'lucky' for 
Ron, Ginny and Hermione. At least, their actions seem to be 
orientated to letting Dumbledore reach Hogwarts, and Snape reach the 
Tower. 

BTW, did anyone else notice that Lupin claims Snape would have 
killed Hermione and Luna when in fact Snape had only Stunned 
Flitwick? Pippin? Did you notice that one?

So you're left with the question: *why* is Snape killing Dumbledore 
(which took place when Felix was still in operation - Ginny is 
successfully dodging DE jinxes when Harry comes down from the 
Tower), apparently something that Ron, Ginny and Hermione all do 
something to help happen.

Either Felix stops operating for some things, then restarts - which 
is *not* how it is described, either by Slughorn in Ch. 9 or by its 
effects on Harry in Ch. 22. Or, it was in operation all the time.

In which case Dumbledore's death-by-Snape is not something Ron, 
Hermione or Ginny should prevent. Somehow,the Felix potion seems to 
be trying to stop them doing actions which would prevent it. Not 
just once, either.


Nora:
We might try to argue that there's a chaotic system 
> here, but I don't think human actions and motivations are amenable 
> to a strictly deterministic model.
> 

I suspect Felix is a probability enhancer. The subject is given the 
ability to 'see' the fog of future probability, and to select the 
action which increases the likelihood of outcomes that are'luckiest' 
for them. Possibly as they move further and further along the tau 
line, they can select higher and higher probability choices, until 
finally the desired outcome has a 100% probability. 

But along the way, it seems to encourage the subject to select a 
probability tau line that enhances the probability of other 'lucky' 
outcomes.  Harry doesn't consciously plan to get Filch into trouble, 
but that happens. 

Nora:
> Unknowable at the moment, I think.  Seems a little overextended, 
to me.
> 

Pip!Squeaks:

Hey, you're talking to the originator of the MAGIC DISHWASHER theory 
here. I've been told that I extend my chains of reasoning until they 
stretch tightrope-like across a giant chasm. 

Then I tap dance along them, twirling my umbrella {vbg}.

Pip!Squeak

"Where do you think I would have been all these years, if I had not 
known how to act?" - Severus Snape