Snape's Remorse - Errata

[nkafkafi]

> Neri:
> In this case I must question the process of assembling this jury. If
> they said that there was a 20/80 chance of Dumbledore dying of the
> poisoning during the 3 seconds in which he was sailing off the tower,
> this implies they were 100% sure he would have died of the poisoning
> during the next 12 seconds if he weren't blasted. Considering he was
> already surviving for many minutes after the poisoning, I'd say
> someone was using something other than realistic judgment here. 
>  

Neri:
Oops, it was of course a horrible mistake to add probabilities here. A
more correct calculation would be as follows:

If the Accio jury think that Dumbledore had more than a 20% percent
chance to die during the 3 seconds of the fall, it means he had at
most 80% chance to stay alive in each 3 seconds. So if he weren't
blasted then during the next 30 seconds he would have at most 80%
exp(30/3) chance to stay alive, which is about 11%, and during the
next 60 seconds he had at most 80% exp(30/3) chance to stay alive,
which is about 1%, which means at least 99% chance to die.

I still don't see how could they be 99% sure that Dumbledore would
have died during the following 60 seconds, but then I've never been a
jury.

Neri