A BIAS in the Pensieve: A Batty Idea About Snape

[Lyn J. Mangiameli]

--- In the_old_crowd at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" <nkafkafi at y...> wrote:
>snip down to the statistical stuff< 
> > Charme:
> > Hags mentioned:  (keyword "hag" or "hags")
> > PS/SS - 1
> > CoS - 2
> > PoA - 1
> > GoF -2
> > OoP - 6 (a majority in describing or referring to Umbridge, and used 
> > especially by Hermoine)
> > Total  12
> > 
> > Vampires mentioned: (keyword "vampire" or "vampires")
> > PS/SS - 4
> > CoS - 6  (5 in reference to Gilderoy Lockhart's book title, in
> different 
> > sentences by or involving multiple major characters reading the book)
> > PoA - 6 (3 in different sentences referencing Snape's assignment in
> DADA)
> > GoF - 2
> > OoP - 2
> > Total  18
> >
> 
> 
> Neri:
> If you want to be geeky and quantitative, that's fine by me. I've just
> ran a t-test on your numbers (takes about 5 minutes in Excel) and
> guess what: the difference is not statistically significant. To be
> specific, the p-value is 0.38. This means (for the non-quantitative
> types here) that there is a 38% chance to get the difference above
> just by pure coincidence. Scientists usually don't trust a difference
> as meaningful unless this chance is 5% at most, but of course,
> scientists are notoriously boring and overly-suspicious bunch. 
>  
 
Lyn now: 
It can be fun to be "geeky and quantitative" sometimes but in this case a t-test is not 
appropriately applied and thus the results are not meaningful. A frequency table (which, of 
course is what Charme did) is appropriate, but the assumptions for a t-test is that the 
event can occur randomly. Now if it were the use of a word like "other" that might be used 
undeliberatively, you might consider its use at least quasi-random and get by with it (and 
indeed I am sure you are aware there are analysis routines that do just this). However, 
words like hag and vampire are selected deliberately and thus are no longer open to 
random inclusion in the text, thus a t-test would be misapplied for this sort of data.

> snipping some interesting canon background provided by Charme> 
> 
> Neri:
> All possible, of course, but like Magda I'm still wondering: what
> would be the point? How would it play in the plot? The advantage of
> thinking about Snape as vampish ONLY in a metaphorical sense (with no
> connection at all to "real" Potterverse vampires) is that it has
> obvious plot implications, and you don't have to ask yourself what he
> had for lunch or why JKR lied to us.
> 

Lyn again: 
But Neri, I know I in the flagship post in this thread, and most others who have entertained 
some aspect of it, have never said we believe Snape is a full vampire, only that he has 
some association to vampires (an association that might still damn him in the eyes of 
some, not unlike how Hagrid or MM are not full giants-or even identify much with them--, 
but the knowledge of their lineage diminishes him in the eyes of some). If such were the 
case, it would be easy for Rowling to say she does not consider Snape a vampire (i.e, "I 
don't think so.") without lying or most of us considering her engaging in a lie. 

You keep asking what point it would play in the plot, even though I have given several 
examples of how it could, and both Charme and SSSusan have mentioned the significance 
in their own views. To reiterate just one that SSS  discussed as well, it would explain why  
Snape remained silent about the Prank, and why he may have retained resentment over it. 

 As just an aside, would it really be all that strange for DD to have admitted more than one 
student that most would have considered unfit to attend Hogwarts? Frankly, it seems more 
likely to me that DD would have been responsible to opening the school to many young 
students who would previously have been denied admission due to prejudice. Snape 
having an innate status that lends to prejudice would only buttress some of the points JKR 
is making, Indeed, isn't there somewhat of an underlying theme througout the books that 
we all have some inward "flaw/deficiency," and it is how we overcome that that so shapes 
our character.

Lyn