HP Timeline: Neville, Harry, Spoilery

[Milz]

--- In the_old_crowd at yahoogroups.com, "Barry Arrowsmith" 
> 
> This is a nice point.
> Because it doesn't matter what DD believes, it's what Voldy believes
that 
> counts.
> 

Exactly, and since Snape was caught eavesdropping, then Dumbledore
should have figured out that Voldy would get that information,
eventually (I'm not implying that he knew Snape worked for V. at this
time, but rather that anyone eavesdropping could have passed that
information along to people who would tell V.)

> If Voldy believes in prophecies then the children are in danger even
if the
> Prophecy is the demented maunderings of a senile old bat. And I can't
> accept that DD didn't realise that. 

Exactly. If there was even a possibility that Voldie believed this
prophecy, then Neville and Harry were in danger no matter what.

>But DD must have had doubts about
> his own scepticism, else why stash Trelawney at Hogwarts? 
> 
> Alternatively, if he doesn't believe Sybill but tucks her away
because he's 
> afraid that Voldy might get to hear of it otherwise, then he's
bolting the 
> stable door after the equine escape. There's an eavesdropper and DD 
> knows it.

Right again. Dumbledore had to have some reason for hiding/protecting
Trelawney at Hogwarts. You bring up the two possible reasons: either
he believed her or he didn't really believe her but knew her life was
in danger due to the eavesdropper. 

I think it was more because they had an eavesdropper, rather than
Dumbledore believing Trelawney at that point. But that too goes back
to the question of why then were the Longbottoms and Potters not
protected better, since no one knew which July baby was "the child" at
that point. And if the Timeline is correct, then why did James, Lily
and Harry wait to go into hiding in October 1981?

Again, common sense would dictate to err on the side of caution.

> 
> Nope; DD used the Prophecy to flush Voldy into the open IMO.
> And the protective spells (on both boys, I'll bet) were carefully
designed to
> knock Voldy out of the game. Pity about James, Lily, Frank and
Alice, though.
> 
> Kneasy

Interesting thought, Kneasy. If Dumbledore used Harry and Neville as
the bait, then he definitely holds a great deal of responsibility for
what happened to both families.

I guess then that this is part of the "Choices" theme in the book...

Milz