XPOST: Lupin is Ever So Evil Part One -- The Prank (long)

[pippin_999]

I must beg the list's indulgence for starting with
the prank. Putting Lupin's history in chronological
order makes it easier to understand, but it also
puts the most speculative area of the theory
first. There is more than one clue to show that
Lupin could have been Voldemort's spy and his
second-in-command, that he could have sent the
Lestranges to attack the Longbottoms, aided
Quirrell and Lucius with their plotting, arranged
for Peter Pettigrew's escape, helped to murder
Cedric, and killed off Sirius Black.

But for this bit, what I mostly have to go on is
Snape's claim that Lupin was in on it (1) -- "it"
being the "highly amusing joke" that would have
resulted in Snape's death(2). Since Snape doesn't
give any evidence for his belief, it seems merely
another symptom of his irrational hate -- except
that if Lupin did indeed plot to kill him, Snape's
hatred isn't irrational at all!

Snape's suspicion does not make a good red
herring because it is never explained. On the
other hand it makes an excellent Chekhov's
gun -- a plot element introduced and left hanging
with the expectation that it will prove important
to later events. (The name comes from Chekhov's
often quoted rule that if you bring a rifle onstage,
someone must think of using it.)

Because nothing is made of Snape's suspicion,
no contrary evidence is presented, which means a brief
confession would be enough for Rowling to establish
Lupin's guilt if it comes time to reveal All.
Moreover, chronologically and psychologically,
involvement in the prank forms a plausible
foundation for what I suspect to be
Lupin's role in later events.

The story of the prank in canon is simply told.
Snape wanted to know where Lupin went every month.
One evening, he spotted Madam Pomfrey taking Lupin
out to the Whomping Willow. Sirius thought it would
be amusing to tell Snape how to get inside. "Of
course" Snape tried it. If he had gotten as far as
the Shrieking Shack, he would have met a full grown
werewolf, but James, who'd heard what Sirius had
done, went after Snape and pulled him back. Ever
since then, Snape has known that Lupin was a
werewolf. (3)

The beginning and end of the story are maddeningly
incomplete. How did Sirius find out what Snape had
seen? How did James learn what Sirius did? What
happened afterward? Was anyone punished? But the
biggest gap comes right in the middle. As befits
the theme of Book Three, it has to do with
*timing*. The joke will be pointless if Snape
enters the willow when Lupin is not there or finds
him before he transforms.

For the prank to work, the timing of the
transformation must be predictable, and Lupin must
be transformed while he is the Shrieking Shack.
This has grave implications for the timing of
Pettigrew's escape. But for now, we are dealing
with the earlier event.

Iif Snape wanted to know where the willow passage
led, wouldn't it have made more sense for him to
explore it when Lupin wasn't likely to be in there?

On the face of it the answer is implied in the
text. Snape followed Lupin hoping to get him in
trouble. (4) But Snape knew that Lupin's visit to
the willow was sanctioned, after all he'd seen
Madam Pomfrey taking him there. The willow was
forbidden territory; if Snape was caught snooping
inside it, he, not Lupin, would have some
explaining to do. (5) Possibly Snape already
suspected Lupin was a werewolf and meant to expose
him...but this seems unlikely too.

Werewolves belong to the Ministry of Magic's most
dangerous category of fantastic beasts. (6) Surely
no wizard in his right mind, still less one who,
unlike Hagrid or Sirius, was known to be cunning
and clever and good at keeping himself out of
trouble, (7) would take on a werewolf alone. What
possessed Snape to follow Lupin into the willow on
a night of full moon?

Canon places much stress on the ways in which one
wizard may induce another to take a rash or foolish
action: potions that bewitch the mind and ensnare
the senses (8), the confundus charm (9), the
dreaded Imperius curse (10). Sirius could have used
one of these to make sure that his "joke" was
effective, but it seems most unlike Sirius to have
done so. I can believe that Sirius would assault
Snape and try to murder him outright -- but I can't
see him setting a trap, not all on his own, anyway.
In all the time Sirius was after Pettigrew, that
is one tactic he doesn't seem to have tried.

Could Snape have been bewitched by someone else? If
he suspected this, would he have overstated his
case as usual, shrilly accusing James and all his
friends of a deliberate plot against him?

We can imagine how it might have looked to
Dumbledore; on the one hand, three exceptionally
bright and popular students and their tagalong pal
Peter, troublemakers but surely not murderers, on
the other, one unhappy Slytherin with a grudge
against them. It seems that the use of magical
coercion is difficult to establish after the fact -
- no one could prove or disprove Lucius Malfoy's
claim that he was under the Imperius curse.
Legilimency might not help; there are hints that
werewolves are immune. (11) Sirius's admission
would seem to be much more plausible than some wild
conspiracy theory. Why would Lupin take part in a
joke that, if it worked, would expose his secret?

But there was more than one secret to be concealed.
Lupin was engaged in activities far more dangerous
and reprehensible than turning into a vicious
monster once a month. He had aided three of his
friends in the practice of illegal magic (12), and
every month, with their help, he was evading the
protections which had been set in place for his
safety and invading the castle grounds and the
village of Hogsmeade. (13) Snape's vigilance might
mean the end of these outings, the only thing
which made Lupin's tranformations bearable. (14)

But worse than that, it might not. Sirius and
James were reckless and high-spirited (15). They
might decide that they could evade Snape's
vigilance and let the werewolf roam again. If Snape
spotted the Animagi and learned their secret, then
not only Lupin but all of his friends would be
expelled and subject to penalties severe enough to
make hardbitten Rita Skeeter consider a year of
poverty and unemployment preferable. Besides that,
the Marauders might have been held responsible for
their depredations in Hogsmeade: "There were near
misses, many of them." (16) Innocent lives had
been threatened.

There was a good chance that Lupin would get away
with it. He was used to keeping secrets; he had the
means of disposing of the body; blood, shrieks and
signs of a struggle would all be taken as the usual
aftermath of his transformation. (17) Snape's
disappearance might have remained a mystery. Even
if Lupin was suspected, what proof would there be?

Only Sirius would know that Lupin had been in on
it. But if Sirius was not thinking of murder, he
wouldn't suppose that Lupin was either. Sirius
probably only hoped for the sight of a terrified
Snape fleeing from the monster's lair, though he
told the Trio it would have served Snape right if
something worse had happened. (18) Lupin could
have trusted him to keep silent; Sirius was above
all loyal to his friends (19). It would be a
desperate plan -- but Lupin might have been
desperate enough to try it.

Fortunately for him, somehow James found out what
Sirius had done, went after Snape and saved him.
Snape, caught out of bounds, was forbidden to tell
what he saw, ( and probably warned to stay far away
from the willow henceforth.) The Marauders' secrets
remained safe.

Next: Part II -- The Spy

Notes -- All references US hardcovers, except
FBAWTFF
(1) PoA ch 18 p 357
(2) PoA ch 14 p 285
(3) PoA ch 18 p 357
(4) "sneaking around, trying to find out what we
were up to...hoping he could get us expelled..."
PoA ch 18 p 356
(5) "we were forbidden to go near it" PoA ch 10 p
186
(6) FBAWTFT, entry on the werewolf, p 61
(7)"Snape's certainly clever and cunning enough to
keep himself out of trouble" GoF ch 27 p
(8)"bewitching the mind, ensnaring the sense" SS
ch 8 p 137, also see OOP ch 18 p 383
(9)Confundus Charm, PoA ch 21 p 386
(10) Imperius Curse, GoF ch 14 p
(11) "An odd, closed expression appeared on Lupin's
face." PoA ch 14 p 288. Also
'"Don't ask me to fathom the way a werewolf's mind
works," hissed Snape' PoA ch 19 p 361
(12) "[...] I had led three fellow students into
becoming Animagi illegally." PoA ch 18 p 355
(13) "roaming the school grounds and the village by
night" PoA ch 18 p 355
(14)"make my transformations bearable" PoA ch 18 p
354
(15) "We were young, thoughtless --carried away
with our own cleverness" PoA ch 18 p 355 "The risk
would've been what made it fun for James." OOP ch
14 p 305
(16) PoA ch 18 p 355
(17) "The screams and howls the villagers used to
hear were made by me." PoA ch 18 p 352. "[...]so I
bit and scratched myself instead." PoA ch18 p 353
"[...] there were stains all over the floor; every
piece of furniture was broken as though somebody
had smashed it." PoA ch 17 p 337
(18) PoA ch 18 p 356
(19) Sirius's loyalty --
http://www.jkrowling.com/textonly/faq_view.cfm?id=6
1