Ruddy star-gazers and The Prophecy (long)

[nkafkafi]

Kneasy wrote:
> <snipped>
> And there's Hermione. Arch-sceptic of divination and the authors 
avatar in
> many things. Should we be as sceptical as Hermione?
>

Neri:
FWIW we did get the prophecy approved by avatar!Hermione:

OotP, Ch. 38:
"Bet Dumbledore wishes he could've got rid of Trelawney for good," 
said Ron, now munching on his fourteenth Frog. "Mind you, the whole 
subject's useless if you ask me, Firenze isn't a lot better..." 

"How can you say that?" Hermione demanded. "After we've just found 
out that there are real prophecies?"


You see, while being a toy rebel and a skeptic, Hermione does believe 
in institutions. If it's a department of the Ministry, and they had 
all these orbs collected and tagged and properly ordered on shelves 
(why, it's just like a *library*) then it must be OK. 


Kneasy: 
> Worth remembering something else. When that dozy old bat did her "A 
tall,
> dark stranger will cross your path.." bit, it was a future event. 
There is no
> guarantee that it still refers to the future as of now. 'Cos there 
is one
> interpretation of the Prophecy that would have allowed Voldy to 
knock off
> Harry at GH and gone on his way rejoicing. The "neither can live 
while the
> other survives.." being the key phrase. If the 'neither' are James 
and Lily and
> 'the other' is Harry, then the solution to Voldy's problem was to 
let either
> James or Lily (or both) live - it's their deaths that will ensure 
Harry's survival.
> And DD specifically uses the word 'vanquished' for what happened to 
Voldy 
> at GH, just as the prophecy requires.
> 
> So - a genuine, accurate Prophecy, but largely irrelevant now?

Neri:
I suspect it's not a coincidence that the prophecy can be read as if 
it had already came to pass. This reading (and the fact that the orb 
got smashed) was craftily constructed by the Author so as to enable 
the Ministry to keep claiming that Harry isn't the key to winning the 
war, and thus continuing the conflict between DD and the Ministry 
even in Book 6. Using LotR again, I think the conflict between DD and 
the Ministry is analogous to the conflict between the Elerond/Gandalf 
faction and the Minas Tirith faction, represented by Boromir. Boromir 
wanted to use the ring against the enemy, which *was* after all the 
common-sense solution, while Elrond and Gandalf realized that this is 
just a well-intended way to lose, so against the opinion of Minas 
Tirith they came up with this harebrained plot to send the ring to 
Mordor to destroy it. I predict DD will find himself in a similar 
position in Book 6. The Ministry will demand some practical war plan, 
some sensible course of action (like maybe authoring again the aurors 
to use the Unforgivables) while DD will only be able to say to 
them: "well, there was this prophecy that got smashed so I'm the only 
one who knows what it said, and it said it's all depends on this 
strange teenager only I'm not sure how exactly, and yes, these words 
*can* be interpreted as if they had already came to pass but I 
personally don't believe it is so". Under these circumstances it will 
be hardly surprising if the Ministry won't accept DD's "plan" for the 
war. So the Order will have to continue being an underground 
organization, hiding from both the Ministry and the DEs.

Neri