A Simpler Scenario

[pippin_999]

> Neri:
> Not bad at all. I especially appreciate this new devotion to 
> simplicity <g>. I still have some questions about this simple 
> scenario, though:
> 
> 1) Why did Snape make the UV in the first place?

I suppose you want a simple explanation of that, too? There's
no pleasing some people <g> ::rereads Spinner's End:: I think
the simplest explanation is that Snape was trapped by his
claim to know of the Plan. He didn't know what it was,
except that it involved Draco and was likely to be dangerous,
until he and Narcissa exchanged that long look, after he'd
claimed to know of it. Only then does she risk a long look
into his eyes. I think she was using occlumency to keep it
from him until then.

Narcissa  was  desperate. If Snape refused to take the vow, she 
might have gone to Voldemort anyway and the Dark Lord would 
surely have learned of Snape's claim to know the plan. Or
she might have taken Draco and made a doomed attempt to flee 
without the Order's help.

Neri: 
> 2) Did Dumbledore know about the third part of the UV and 
if so, how  was he planning on handling it?

Pippin:
"He cannot kill you if you are already dead." The third part of the
vow only comes into effect "should it prove necessary." 
Dumbledore would have planned to fake his death at Snape's hands.

Neri:
> 3) Dumbledore dying of the poison in midair still sounds like a bit 
> too much of a coincidence to me.

Pippin:
Actually, he could have died of it anytime after he last spoke. He was
slumped against the wall -- he gets weaker and weaker and seems
to be in more and more pain all the time. It's perfectly possible
Snape's AK hit a dead body and blasted it. It all depends on when 
Harry ceased to be held by the spell and shock took over. That, we
don't know. 

It's even possible that Snape didn't let Dumbledore fall to the ground
until he heard Harry moving and talking and realized, as Harry did,
that Dumbledore was gone.

He could have used mobilicorpus just after the wingardium.
That one doesn't require you to keep a wand trained on the subject, 
because in PoA, Snape remains hanging unconscious in midair even 
after Black has transformed and fled. There were no observers on
the grounds who would have seen it if Dumbledore hung just out of
sight of the tower for a second or two.

Neri: 
> In addition, accepting for a moment your basic premises for the
tower  scene, it strikes me that two great minds such as Dumbledore
and Snape, legilimening between them as they were, could have worked
out  a much better solution to the situation. For example: Snape does
a fake AK but *without* the levitation spell. Dumbledore plays dead. 
Snape tells the DEs: "it's over! You go down the tower first, we're 
coming after you". When the last DE had gone down the stairs Snape 
tells Draco to take one of the two brooms and fly to the gate,
he'll  join him there soon. After Draco had left Snape can stun the
DEs on the stairs from above (non verbally, so they don't realize
who's shooting at them). 

Pippin:
Now who's being complicated? <g>
The DE's are going to know *someone's* shooting at them.  Dead
Dumbledore, invisible frozen Harry, wimpy Draco or Snape? 

No good.

Neri:
At the same time Dumbledore can release Harry
from  his freezing spell and explain to him that he's dying and Snape
is on  our side. Snape takes the second broom to join Draco and
Dumbledore is left to say some memorable last words while dying in 
Harry's arms. 

 Hey, it even works well in the literary sense.   
> 

Pippin:
Your scenario allows Alecto, Amycus and the dreaded Greyback
to come to the aid of the DE's down below, who aren't going to be
in any hurry to withdraw if Snape's not there to make them.

Dumbledore can't tell Harry anything he doesn't want Voldemort 
to know. He made an exception in the past, for the prophecy, 
and he made another in this book for the horcruxes, for the 
same reason. Because if Harry doesn't know about 
them, Voldemort might easily lure him into another vain attack.

And it doesn't work in the literary sense if we're supposed to 
be unsure which side Snape is on. And we are -- Jo said she
couldn't answer that question.

Pippin