Blackwidower!Snape - repost from TOL (long)

[dungrollin]

> Not more plasmodium, I hope?

I blasted it quick with some little yellow pills which made the 
ceiling go all swirly. Looks stationary enough again now.

Dung
> > Just try to imagine for a moment that you're a power-hungry 
psychotic (easier for some than others) and someone has just told you 
a kid with the clout to pulp you is going to be born; you'd start 
getting twitchy around *any* pregnant women, wouldn't you? Oh, and 
you'd utterly forbid the minion who brought you the news to tell 
> >anybody else.
> 
Kneasy
> Well, maybe.
> Certainly he might keep the troops in the dark about a possible 
> vanquisher, but there again he might consider it an opportunity to 
> demonstrate his supremacy. Depends if he's read the Rules. But what 
> he'd want more than anything else is information, and to get that 
> he'd have to pass the word that there were certain classes of 
> intelligence that he's particularly interested in.

Dung
I'm going by one of JKR's faq polls:

The Lestranges were sent after Neville to kill him.
No, they weren't, they were very definitely sent after Neville's 
parents. I can't say too much about this because it touches too 
closely on the prophecy and how many people knew about it, but the 
Lestranges were not in on the secret.

Which strongly suggests, firstly, that the information was highly 
restricted (if precious Bella didn't know), and secondly, that who 
*did* know about the prophecy before OotP will be important. The only 
certainties we have are Snape, Voldy and DD, and *not* the 
Lestranges. 

Kneasy
> It's a truism that run-of-the-mill dictators do tend to worry more 
> about a coup emanating from their own ranks rather than getting a 
> kicking from the outside opposition. And then there's the fact that 
> it's a prophecy. Oh, dear. If he's got any historical perspective, 
then he'll be aware how twisty those things can be. Downfall could 
end up meaning he trips on a fluffy bunny spilled from a cot and 
impales himself on his own wand; at least 'vanquish' implies some 
sort of a contest, but it still could be tricky. One good  thing from 
his perspective - there's no rush. A mewling babe isn't likely to be 
> a serious competitor for a few years yet.

Dung
It's irritating. On the one hand it looks as though he's got plenty 
of time, and on the other, one can't help but wonder why he waited so 
long between hearing the prophecy and going after the Potters. If 
it's at all relevant, I can only imagine that it was due to lack of 
information, that he didn't know who'd calved at the right time. 

But you said (later on) 
> Even if he suspects he's a DE and therefore his motives, DD could 
> well bring Sevvy into Hogwarts on the basis of keeping your enemies 
> close, but would he trust him as he's supposedly done? Not without 
> pretty substantial proofs involving frequent and sustained 
Legilimancy,
> info from trusted informers and a long probationary period IMO. 
> Though if the prophecy is a DD scam he could feel a bit responsible
> for Snape's nearest and dearest ending up as collateral damage.

And

> The more cynical among us reckon it's the other way round - DD used 
> Snape as a conduit to inform Voldy of the existence of targets 
Harry and Neville as part of a ploy to lure Voldy to his destruction. 
In that scenario it's immaterial whether DD trusts him or not. Better 
> not to, I think, he can't be scanned for info he doesn't have.

Dung
It still strikes me as possible that it was reading the Potters' 
names in the magical book which persuaded Snape that he had something 
to offer DD. Snape tells DD that Voldy sent him to Hogwarts to find 
out the names of children born at the right time, (Snape may have 
assumed that there weren't any, that it was his now dead sprog that 
was the one to whom the prophecy referred), and is surprised to 
discover the Potters qualify. 

DD sends him back to Voldy with the names to keep Snape's cover, and 
sets up the fidelius charm, either (nice!DD) supposing that the 
Potters will accept his offer to be secret-keeper and that everything 
would be ok, or, (naughty!DD) since he knows about the marking, he 
half-heartedly suggests himself as sk if they can't find anybody 
else, and banks on the spy close to the Potters ratting them out.

Kneasy
> Stepping back outside the plot - how likely do you think Jo is to 
get pregnancy and induction into the story? So far we haven't come 
> across a single gravid female in six books.

Dung
`Cept Merope. But anyway, given that we'll not be seeing any of it 
first-hand, it only needs to be mentioned in one line of dialogue. 
During the writing she's produced three times, so I can't really 
imagine her being squeamish about it.
 
Kneasy
> Um.
> Reggie.
> The Lexicon surmises that there's only a year or so between him and 
> Sirius, so it's possible that he could have teamed up with Snapey, 
even given the propensity of schoolboys to stick mainly with others 
of their own intake. As usual, we're a bit in the  dark on timings. 
When did he do his sleight of hand stunt with the hosscrux, when did 
Voldy find out, when did he cop it in the neck? (He's in 3 entries in 
the Lexicon - 2 say he died in '79, one says '80. That gives a spread 
of between 2.5 years and zero between the swop and the critical 
podding period. Seems reasonable (until more info emerges) to go mid-
period, unless Voldy was into last-minute hosscrux production on a 
just-in-case basis. 
> Does that cause you a problem?

Dung
(Swop?? Am I being slow?) 
Trying to pin RW dates on WW events confuses me. I prefer to 
reference something in canon, e.g. the year of Harry's birth. I date 
Reggie's death according to the tapestry in OotP, which says some 
fifteen years previously, which makes it the year of Harry's birth, 
the year before GH. If you insist on saying '79 or '80, you have to 
specify which year you're going with for Harry's birth, coz afaik 
that's either '79 or '80, too isn't it? I don't think you can have 
Reg dying in '79 and Harry born in '80. But I could be wrong...
 
Dung
> > Voldemort is therefore very much displeased with Snape. He orders
> > Snape to be killed (that'll learn him!). However, Lucius Malfoy,
> > still grateful to Snape for his tip off about the prophecy,
> > intervenes (at great personal risk) to persuade Voldemort to spare
> > Snape. Lucius's strategy involves pointing out to Voldy how very
> > useful a talented young wizard like Snape could be. [14]
> 
Kneasy
> An altruistic Malfoy...
> Goes against the grain, somewhat. As does his arguing a case 
> against His Paranoid Evilness. 

Dung
Could still be self-serving I scratch your back you owe me big time 
stuff. And Narcissa does say that Snape is Lucius's "old friend," 
(admittedly trying to flatter him, but Sirius implied the friendship 
too, and there's that twitch in GoF which needs explaining.) I think 
I discussed this with SSSusan on TOL, and retracted the "at great 
personal risk" bit. Malfoy doesn't have to stick his neck out much 
further than reminding Voldy that Snape's a handy chap to have 
around. It's the kind of thing to cement a friendship though, almost 
like knocking out a mountain troll.

Kneasy
> Given the situation (i.e. he's been warned that there's a big 
problem 
> on the way) he'd be more likely to zap everybody in sight just to 
> nip any potential conspiracy in the bud to be on the safe side, 
> wouldn't he? After all, he's supposed to be topping Snape!Son and 
> eventually the Potter and Longbottom kids on just that basis - 
> prevention is better than cure.

Dung
Again... yes, possibly. But he didn't zap a single DE in the 
graveyard, despite going on about what a useless bunch they had been. 
In fact, have any DEs aside from Reg and Karkaroff been offed by 
their own side? They were both actively trying to leave the DEs, 
Snape wasn't, he just mucked up a few times.

Kneasy
> Now Voldy wiping out the missus and off-spring because he 
> thought Sevvy had let him down by failing to keep a sufficiently 
close eye on Reggie is a possibility of sorts - a "pour encourage les 
autres" moment. But Malfoy intervening... dunno. From the text the 
only person who tries to get Voldy to change his mind is Peter, the 
rest just suck up to him and probably manoeuvre amongst themselves 
> to bask in his approval. 

Dung
We only see Lucius and Voldy together in the graveyard, at a moment 
when Lucius and all the others are very determinedly telling him how 
fabulous he is and please don't crucio me, your evilness. I mean, if 
you want to characterise an entire relationship on a couple of lines 
of ingratiating hem-kissing at a point of high stress, I can't stop 
you, but it's not necessarily representative.

Kneasy
> In a faction fight where the two main protagonists are Legilimancy
> maestros, it's difficult to imagine anyone can get away with 
anything. Block probings and you're immediately under suspicion. 
Unless - partial mind-wipes are engineered by depositing 
incriminating memories in a Pensieve - and it would require the use 
of one at each end of the chain. 
> Messy.

Dung
Only if your blocking is detected. Snape sees through Draco's 
inexpert attempt immediately in HBP, but ... hang on, I have canon 
for this somewhere...

Ah yes:
"The Dark Lord, for instance, almost always knows when somebody is 
lying to him. Only those skilled at Occlumency are able to shut down 
those feelings and memories that contradict the lie, and so can utter 
falsehoods in his presence without detection."
- OotP ch 24 UK p469.

Suggesting that the blocking *can* remain undetected when you're as 
good as Snapey. 

Kneasy
> Not strictly this thread, but  a thought impinged while compiling 
> this response.
> Are the DEs Voldy's invention?
> Jo once revealed that originally they were The Knights of Walpurgis 
and
> then she changed the name.
> That seems a very Germanic name to me - too German? Hinting at a 
> connection to Grindelwald, perhaps? 
> A nice continuity link that could tie in with an immortal Sally!
Spirit, if so.

Dung
That's another quote that's always irritated me because you can't 
tell whether she means that *she* re-named them, or whether Voldy 
did. Grumble grumble.