HP does not better in the summer than Fall

[Carol]

Tina wrote:

> Very interesting explanation.  Have you correlated any of this information with release dates of the books? <snip>

Carol responds:

No, I haven't, but that might be a factor, too. Let's see what we come up with (ignoring paperbacks and special editions and just going with the first printing of the hardbacks in relation to the films.

PS was published in England in July, 1997, and (as SS) in the U.S. in  September 1998; the film came out in fall 2001. That's a significant wait (three or four years), but no one knew that both the books and the films would be an international phenomenon. the wait certainly had no effect on the profits.

CoS was published in Britain in July 1998 and in the U.S. in June 1999. the film came out in fall 2002, again a significant wait (three or four years), but the wait from the first film to the second was only one year. I'm guessing that the wait between book and film wasn't all that important because the audience for the CoS film was mostly kids (and parents) who had seen the first film (kids who had started reading the books when they first came out might have thought they were already too old for it!). I'll bet that a large number of adults, at least, came to the books from the films rather than the other way around.

PoA was published in July 1999 (Britain) and October 1999 (U.S. Hey, we were catching up! Must have been a rush job for Scholastic, or they had two different copyeditors and proofreaders for Cos and PoA--that's two close together for comfort). The film came out in summer 2004, a really long wait for book readers (five years!). In fact, I remember for the first time, being really eager for a HP film and watching the trailer online. Before that, I'd only really been a fan of the books,  five of which were out by that time.

GoF was published in July 2000 in both the UK and the U.S. (Scholastic finally realized that they needed to keep up given the popularity of the books, I guess!) GoF the film came out in fall 2005, another very long wait (five years), but by then, the first five books books had a thoroughly established fan base (us!) and those who liked the films were going to watch them regardless. The films probably had their own firmly established fan base overlapping with ours. Maybe that alone made the difference between the profits of PoA and OoP?

OoP was published three years after GoF in June 2003 (both countries). There was no film that year--the long book was all there was. OoP the film came out ("obbbviously," as Movie!Snape would say), in summer 2007, four years after the book. And since the profits were so close to those for Gof, I think the same reasoning applies. Both the books and the films had established fanbases, and we were hungry for something new. DH the book was just about to come out. That timing could have been disastrous, but I think it operated in WB's favor--HP mania at its height.

HBP was published in July 2005; the film as we all know was delayed from November, 2008, to July 15, 2009. (Yea! Yea! It's almost here! Oops. Sorry. Lost control there.) Compared with our previous waits between book and film, that's not so terrible. Four years is actually typical if my math is right. Sure, it's two years between OoP and HBP, but it would have been two years between HBP and DH1 if the date hadn't been changed. IOW, we'd have had to wait for one or the other, regardless.

DH, of course, was published in July 2007, only a short time after OoP, the film, came out. An international period of mourning ensued--sorry, I'm getting silly here. We had no more books and nothing to wait for but the films (I don't count silly stuff like "Tales of Beedle the Bard" and that little anecdote of Sirius and James and the Muggle policemen), which explains our obsession with HBP, the film, and its two sequels (and I, for one, am glad that WB chose to do DH in two parts. It gives us a little longer to obsess). DH1 is scheduled for release in November 2010, two years after the original release date for HBP but only a year and a half after the new one. And that's a *short* three and a half years after the book came out, a record for the HP films. DH2 (being filmed at the same time, LOTR style) is scheduled for release in July 2011, a mere eight-month wait after DH1 and four years after the book.

All in all, I'd say that the waiting time between the books and the films (which is relatively consistent) hasn't been much of a factor in the popularity of the films.

Ratings might be more important, along with publicity, but that will take more time and trouble to research, and we won't know the results of the media assault of HBP-related footage, photos, posters, and interviews until after the film has had its turn at the box office.

On a different note, it looks as if DH 1 will include the "Malfoy Manor" sequence; Dobby, the Snatcher Scabior, and Peter Pettigrew are all in it. I can't tell whether the Shell Cottage sequence, or part of it, will also be included, because Bill and Fleur should also be at their own wedding! At any rate, I'm still betting on the first part ending shortly after Dobby's funeral with Harry's decision to go after the Horcruxes and leave the Hallows.

My apologies for the long-winded post, but you asked!

Carol, hoping that someone else will theorize as to why Poa was the least profitable film and the profits began to rise again with GoF


 
> > the release dates: 
> > 
> > Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) $317,557,891 
> > 
> > Harry Potter
> and the Order of the Phoenix (2007) $292,000,866 
> > 
> >
> Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) $289,994,397 
> > 
> > Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) $261,970,615 
> > 
> > Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
> $249,358,727