Possible Theory on the Release of Book 6

[full_pensieve]

Scholastic, the US publisher for the HP books, is on a June 1 to May 
31 fiscal year; Order of the Phoenix was released in the first month 
of its 2004 fiscal year.  Bloomsbury, the UK publisher, is on a 
January 1 to December 31 fiscal year.  Similarly, AOL Time Warner, 
the corporate parent of the Warner Bros. motion picture studio, is 
on a calendar fiscal year.  

I'm not sure the theory holds up on the basis of alternating book 
and film releases - the two properties are, after all, in different 
corporate hands.  However, hardcover and paperback releases in 
alternating fiscal years might provide a good business case for the 
theory - if the author is inclined or able to cooperate.  If Book 6 
releases roughly 2 years to the day from OotP (mid-to-late June, 
2005), then you may indeed be seeing economics at work; a release in 
the first month of the fiscal year makes sense for Scholastic if 
they want to book the majority of revenue in a single year (as both 
initial release and the predictable Christmastime bump fall in the 
same June-May window).

Most US businesses operate on calendar fiscal years, unless the 
business cycle in their particular segment dictates otherwise (e.g. 
some heavily seasonal retailers are March to February, to catch 
Christmas in 4Q; many US education-related businesses, like 
Scholastic, end their fiscal years in the summer; the US Federal 
gov't is October to September, due to election cycles; etc.).

Cheers,
Full Pensieve  

--- In HPFGU-OTChatter at yahoogroups.com, kemper mentor 
<kempermentor at y...> wrote:
> I think that's a wonderful theory and that it's correct, but for 
different reasons.  Publishing houses and movie studios are 
essentially Slytherins, not that they're evil, but that they are 
interested in monetary gains.  Money is power.  
>  
> Most businesses run on a July 1 to June 30 fiscal year.  July 2004 
will see the movie HP-PoA, July 2003 saw the book HP-OoP, November 
2002 saw the movie HP-CoS, November 2001 saw the movie HP-SS(PS for 
you Brits), July 2000 saw the book HP-GoF, October 1999 saw the book 
HP-PoA: this is when HP started to become a phenomenon (and a 
finacial windfall to the Slytherins mentioned above).  
>  
> So I see book 6, Harry Potter and the Something or Other, coming 
out after June 30, 2005.  Most likely in July of that fiscal year.  
This then means that the movie HP-GoB will probably have a July 2006 
release date.
>  
> -Kemper
> 
> Amber <ambiree at b...> wrote:
> Okay, call me an idiot...(actually don't, I'll cry)...but I have 
this 
> strange theory about when book 6 will be released.  Those I've 
told 
> around me think it's brilliant, but I will sacrifice it on the 
alter 
> of 
> the members of this group to see if my theory holds...okay?  Be 
kind 
> if you don't agree...
> 
> I kinda made this up with the realization that OoP is releasing in 
> paperback in August.
> 
> July 2000--Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is released!  Yeah, 
> the Potter fans go crazy.
> 
> Sept 2002--After 27 months, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 
> releases to paperback.  Among the rumors were that the book was 
too 
> long to release in paperback form...but then look at many other 
books 
> that release in paperback that long (Clancy, WEB Griffin, Tolkien, 
> and some other SF/F authors come to mind).
> 
> Jan 2003--The long-awaited announcement comes...Harry Potter and 
the 
> Order of the Phoenix has a release date.
> 
> Jun 2003--HP & OoP released...hoards of ravenous HP fans gobble 
down 
> millions of copies and beg for more.
> 
> Jul/Aug 2004--the anticipated release of OoP in paperback, 
although 
> in Britian, it will be released 1 month earlier.
> 
> Okay so what right?  Except, why did it take half the time for OoP 
(a 
> longer book) to release to paperback?  The mad fans (that's us) 
all 
> bought copies the first day/night.  Why rush printing?  
> 
> I believed that around December 2004 we will have an answer to our 
> most wanted question --When is book 6 coming out?--
> 
> From the Letter Box Project, JKR has said that the writing for 
book 6 
> is "flowing like a mountain stream."  Given the 5-6 month proofing 
> and printing period for the millions of copies needed, I'd say we 
are 
> looking at a Summer 2005 release!  This is just theory and 
> speculation.  It is not meant to deceive or anything...
> 
> What do you think?
> 
> Amber
> 
> 
> 
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