Possible FLINT?

[Cindy C.]

No: HPFGUIDX 28788

In my never-ending but so far unsuccessful effort to find a FLINT, 
here's another FLINT candidate.  

It is in PoA, "The Firebolt," when Harry is looking at his parents' 
wedding pictures and is thinnking about Black:

"His face wasn't sunken and waxy, but handsome, full of laughter.  
Had he already been working for Voldemort when this picture had been 
taken?  Was he already planning the deaths of the two people next to 
him?  Did he realize he was facing twelve years in Azkaban, twelve 
years that would make him unrecognizable?"

Now, the first two questions are fine and make sense.  But the third 
one is a puzzle.  At the time of parents wedding, how could Black 
have possibly "realized" he was facing time in Azkaban, even if he 
were already planning something?  And he certainly wouldn't have 
realized that it would only be 12 years, or that he would become 
unrecognizable, or that he would get caught for something he hadn't 
yet done.  

So, what say ye?  FLINT, No FLINT, or Yes FLINT But We've All Known 
About This For Three Years.

Cindy