Wizarding population of UK

[pengolodh_sc at yahoo.no]

No: HPFGUIDX 30234

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., raolin1 at h... wrote:
> This is probably a silly thing to do, but I found a government
> site with statistics on the UK population broken down by age
> group.  I decided I could make something of this of interest
> to the Harry Potter-verse, so bear with me as I explain what
> I did to try and estimate the population of the Wizarding
> world of the UK.

[snip]

> Rounding to the nearest hunred (after all, JKR said *about*
> 1000) I came up with a number of 7700.

Almost a year ago (on New Year's Eve 2000, actually) I last made a 
major post on this subject - then under the ID rhodhry.  In my post, 
I landed on a conclusion that the wizarding-population in Great 
Britain will be roughly 20 times that of the number of students at 
Hogwarts, assuming that the statement that Hogwarts is the only 
secondary-level wizarding school is correct.  For a Hogwarts with 
1000 students, this would result in 20 000 witches/wizards overall in 
Great Britain.

The post was rather lengthy, so I shall quote the relevant part in 
full at the end of this mail.  If you wish to see the post in its 
entirety, the link is 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/8164
Take note that what I have done in this post - banging together a lot 
of subjects in a single, neutrally titled post - no longer is 
considered good form on this list.

For those that are interested in the sizes of schools around Europe, 
the following might be of interest:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/6069

> PROBLEMS IN THE PROCESS
> 
> However, there are a few things that will skew the numbers, so
> it can't be seen as anything more than a directional, best
> guess sort of thing -- useful only in the vaguest of surveys.
> Some of these problems include: 
> 
> o  The statistics I used were for the UK excluding Ireland,
> while  Hogwarts includes Irish students.  This would tend to
> skew the total significantly down from where I ended up.

We do not know that Hogwarts includes students from the Republic of 
Ireland, since Seamus very easily could be from Northern Ireland, 
which is part of the United Kingdom.

> o  The percentage of the population in the higher age groups
> drops off sharply soon after about 70 or so.  Since we know
> that wizards  are longer lived, there should be more age
> brackets, and they should be more "filled out" than our
> Muggle numbers indicate.  This would skew the total
> significantly up from where I ended up.

This is the main point where you and I differ in our analysis.  I 
assumed linear expansion of the age-brackets, you did not.

> o  Doesn't really make a provision for squibbs or others that
> for whatever reason don't go to Hogwarts.  We don't know if
> this is a significant portion of the population or not, or
> for that matter, if they really should be considered part of
> the wizarding population.  

Well, the squibs do not really figure in, as they do not count 
towards keeping up the numbers of the magical population, while 
muggleborns do count in, as they will grow up to become witches or 
wizards.  The comparison is exclusively about the relationships 
between the number of children who will grow up to become witches or 
wizards and the total number of people who are or will become witches 
or wizards.

> Given the vagueness of the numbers we're working with, that's
> not a good triangulation, but I'd still venture that there's
> less than (or about) a million witches and wizards worldwide.
> 
> Joshua Dyal

Here is the quote from my post:

---------------------
10.  STUDENT NUMBERS/WIZARD NUMBERS 
The number of English wizard-students also determines the total 
population of wizards in Britain.  I did some rough calculations on 
this, a month or two back, based on the assumption that the average 
wizard lives twice as long as the average muggle (based on JKR's age-
statement - Dumbledore is 150).  With that assumption, I concluded 
that the number of wizards in britain and Ireland is roughly 20 
(twenty) times the number of students.  300-400 students would mean a 
British/Irish population of 6000-8000 wizards all ages.  I think the 
spreadsheet is in the files section.

For this reason alone I support a relatively high number of students 
at Hogwarts, because the wizarding-population needs to be of a 
certain size.  The British Wizarding population is able to support a 
relatively large Ministry of Magic, with several departments under
junior ministers, a large commercial district (Diagon Alley), a maller
commercial district (Hogsmeade - mainly supported by students, I 
admit) and a sizeable district for less honourable commercial 
activities (Knocturn Alley).  Mr. Ollivander has 'thousands of
narrow boxes', and I doubt that the majority of these are empty, and 
Gringotts has about a hundred goblins at work (PS Chapter Five - 
Diagon Alley), which indicates quite a high level of activity.  There 
is also an influential daily newspaper, which does sound like it is 
based in Britain, and there is Witch Weekly (probably based in 
Britain, but maybe elsewhere), and at least one professional 
publication (Transfiguration Today).  

There has to be people enough to man all these industries and 
businesses, and look after children and the household (which I get 
the impression may be something of a norm still in wizarding 
society).  Therefore I think that 300-400 students is a too low 
number, as the population of wizards this would indicate only barely 
would be able to support the level of activity we see.

Also, remember that Hogwarts is *large* - Professor Flitwick's office 
is located on the seventh floor, and this is described as being one 
of the "...upper floors of the castle", not just a single tower (Both 
informations from 'PoA Chapter Twenty-one - Hermione's Secret').  It 
is not even specified as being the top floor.  When at
university, I went to a faculty where the buildings housed 500 
students, where half had offices, relatively large staff, several 
auditoriums, a large research-cenbtre with a large staff, a large lab-
building containing two large marine diesel-engines running of 
methane, a large hall for testing bending- and breaking-strength of 
full-size hullgirders, and several other labs, a large cafeteria, 
library, etc.  The building had a total of three floors, with a 
footprint that was not particularly large.  (Of course it grew larger 
if you included the 280m (919 ft) tow-tank and the 80mx60mx10m 
(262ftx197ftx33ft) wave-tank, but still it is not too large, and the 
footprint of the building still does not grow any larger than what I 
imagine must be the footprint of Hogwarts)

The statement about 200 Slytherin supporters at a quidditch match was 
not from CoS - it was from 'PoA Chapter Fifteen - The Quidditch 
Final', where it also says that three quarters of the crowd were 
supporting Gryffindor.  I believe the majority of these came from the 
students and staff at Hogwarts, as I cannot remember ever reading 
about spectators coming from other places than the school.  The only 
reference to approaching spectators in that chapter refers to those 
coming from the inside of the castle (through the front doors).

As far as tablespace goes, on the Royal Navy torpedo-boat Destroyers 
of the 'River'-class allowed 20 inches of seating-space per rating, 
and 18 inches of hammock-space (these were conditions described as 
palatial by the crew, so you can imagine what conditions were like in 
older classes of TBDs).  Kids are small, particularly at age eleven 
(with a possible exception for Dudley Dursley) - they will manage.  
According to 'PS Chapter Seven - The Sorting Hat' there are four long 
tables for the students, and another long table at the top of the 
Great Hall, for the teachers.  

I think what Rowling has done to a degree basically equals what is 
known in model railroading as 'selective compression'.  The concept 
is that you show enough of the scene so that it is recoganisable to 
the viewer/reader, but you do not show it all, as that would take to 
much space.
---------------------

Best regards
Christian Stubø 
(for ever champion of the notion that Hogwarts school uniforms 
consist of closed robes)