Wizarding population of UK

[raolin1 at hotmail.com]

No: HPFGUIDX 30243

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., pengolodh_sc at y... wrote:
> Almost a year ago (on New Year's Eve 2000, actually) I last made a 
> major post on this subject - then under the ID rhodhry.  In my 
post, 
> I landed on a conclusion that the wizarding-population in Great 
> Britain will be roughly 20 times that of the number of students at 
> Hogwarts, assuming that the statement that Hogwarts is the only 
> secondary-level wizarding school is correct.  For a Hogwarts with 
> 1000 students, this would result in 20 000 witches/wizards overall 
in 
> Great Britain.


Ah, how could I possibly resist responding to someone who goes by the 
name of Pengolodh -- if nothing else just to mention that!

Er, anyway...  if I understand you correctly, you came to a number 
that was more or less twice mine by assuming that wizards live (on 
average) twice as long as Muggles.  And this is based on Dumbledore's 
age?  The first problem I would see is that I wouldn't characterize 
Dumbledore as an average wizard -- even in regards to his age.  We 
really don't have any information on what the actual wizard life 
expectancy is to work with.  I took a more cautious approach and 
didn't even factor it in to my number, utilizing Muggle numbers 
exclusively.  But, since I have another factor that pushes the 
numbers significantly the other direction, I thought it a risk worth 
taking (see below.)


> We do not know that Hogwarts includes students from the Republic of 
> Ireland, since Seamus very easily could be from Northern Ireland, 
> which is part of the United Kingdom.


Actually, we do know that.  The little JKR "biography" book (not the 
unofficial one, the one that they say is "official") that is in 
interview format clears that up.  I also believe the same chat where 
she said Hogwarts is the only wizarding school in the UK says that it 
is the only one for Ireland as well.  In fact, IIRC, her statement is 
something along the lines of "Hogwarts is the only wizarding school 
for the UK and Ireland."  Not only that, Seamus is likely *not* from 
Northern Ireland, as he camped in the very middle of the Irish teams 
set-up at the World Cup.  I don't know how well Muggle politics is 
mirrored in the wizarding world, but given that a high percentage of 
wizards are of Muggle birth, or at least half-Muggle birth, it's 
still be odd to see Northern Irish camping out in the Middle of an 
Irish campground.  My assumption, which likely is not really valid, 
is that the expansion of the age brackets and the inclusion of the 
Irish students cancel each other out, leading to a net-0 difference, 
or close enough to it.



> This is the main point where you and I differ in our analysis.  I 
> assumed linear expansion of the age-brackets, you did not.


See above.  I really didn't do anything with the age brackets because 
I thought the addition of the Irish students would tend to cancel out 
that trend.  Although I readily admit I have no way of knowing if 
they are of the same magnitude.  However, since we really have no way 
of knowing what the average wizard life expectancy is, I think both 
analyses are equally speculative in that regard.


> Well, the squibs do not really figure in, as they do not count 
> towards keeping up the numbers of the magical population, while 
> muggleborns do count in, as they will grow up to become witches or 
> wizards.  The comparison is exclusively about the relationships 
> between the number of children who will grow up to become witches 
or 
> wizards and the total number of people who are or will become 
witches 
> or wizards.


Or, a case could be made that the "wizarding world population" is 
those that are raised in, and operate in, the wizarding world 
regardless of whether or not they are wizards or squibs.  Filch is 
certainly no Muggle, doesn't associate with Muggles, and probably 
doesn't live a Muggle lifestyle.  Doesn't make him a wizard, but 
doesn't make him a Muggle neither.  And what about folks like Stan 
the Knight-bus... er.. Stewardess (or whatever he is?)  Did *he* go 
to Hogwarts?  Are there not potentially other magical children that 
for whatever reason simply don't go?  Who can say?  That's why I 
flagged it as a wild-card.

And as to your other post, I heartily agree that there must be a 
certain "critical mass" in order for there to be a class system, a 
thriving economic system, families that apparently know little to 
nothing about the Muggle world and the like.  However, what is that 
critical mass?  We only know of one major school, two rather smallish 
economic centers, two regular general circulation periodicals -- I 
think a critical mass of about 10,000 for the UK and Ireland works.

Joshua Dyal


Joshua Dyal