Wizard Demographics

[frantyck at yahoo.com]

No: HPFGUIDX 25368

Thanks, Catlady, for a rewarding post.

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "Catlady (Rita Prince Winston)" 
<catlady at w...> wrote:
> 
> Frantyck Werewoof wrote:
> 
> > I was wondering whether anyone anywhere has done a bit of 
> > calculation wrt wizard demographics
> 
> I often brood obsessively over how big the wizarding population of 
> the island of Britain (and associated isles) must be to be able to 
> have all the economy that we have seen: all the shops of Hogsmeade 
> and Diagon Alley, the broomstick manufacturors and the professional 
> Quidditch teams, etc.  In my opinion, the wizarding population MUST 
> be AT LEAST 15,000 to have all that division of labor, and 20 to 
> 25,000 seems more plausible. 

> If the usual lifespan of wizards is 150 years (Dumbledore's current 
> age) then 15,000 divided by 150 is 100 kids born each year time 
seven 
> years at Hogwarts would be a student body of 700. As I believe that 
> Dumbledore's unusually powerful magic has made him live unusually 
> long even for a wizard, I think 100 is a more likely AVERAGE 
lifespan 
> which would give a student body of 1000, which is the number I had 
> decided on before JKR stated it. 

Fascinating! but what's the reasoning? Why divide total estimated 
population by estimated lifespan for estimated annual births... It's 
not that I doubt the numbers, I'm just dying to know.

For wizard economy: most (but not all) of the shops and businesses 
that we know of are unique; that is, there is only one of each. One 
bank, one newspaper, one bookstore, one wand maker, and so on. This 
means that a very small population can still support a range of 
economic services. Once again, it calls to mind late medieval 
European urban economy, with competition strictly limited so that 
there would be no losers.

On the other hand: if there are several local Quidditch teams that 
attract a fiercely loyal following, then wizard people have a strong 
sense of place and community. Which suggests again that there must be 
local businesses... but wizards don't live in wizarding villages, by 
and large. It gets circular.

> But I consider the island of Britain (and associated isles) to be 
> quite separate from the island of Ireland (and associated isles), 
> with Ireland having its own Ministry of Magic, own wizarding 
> school(s), and so on. The wizard folk cling to old-fashioned ways
> like (looking like) steam engines and sailing ships and an economy 
of 
> small independent sole proprietors and artisans, why would they 
> change perfectly good wizarding national borders just because of 
> Muggle political changes? It makes sense to me that their borders 
> would be based either on physical geography (separate islands = 
> separate island nations) or VERY OLD history.

Clever points. I was going to suggest linguistic borders, but then 
the fact that there are all those national Quidditch teams is an odd 
fit, as is, for instance, the fact that the Bulgarian Krum attends a 
wizarding school in far northern Europe. What do you think?

During the QWC, the English witches and wizards do not automatically 
identify with the Irish side rather than with the foreign and 
incomprehensible Bulgarians; the Irish are still very much 
the 'other.' Odd.

Seamus Finnigan is Irish, and attends Hogwarts. I don't think they 
have their own school or MoM. Is there anything in canon about this?

The pieces don't fit well! Nothing new there. Long live speculation, 
and the very ancient intellectual tradition of barking up the wrong 
tree.

Woof. From the Werewoof.

Rrishi