Arthur and Molly's past

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 42829

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "yr awen" <yrawen at o...> wrote:
> 
<Snip about Mundungus Fletcher being old>
> Corinth:
> Dumbledore does not seem the type 
> to conduct a full assault, soldier-style.  Instead, I see him 
> heading an intelligence unit.  Defeat the enemy from the 
> inside.<<<<<<

Hurray! More visitors to The Safe House! (see #40421)

> Yr Arwen
> You're quite right, I agree. But with the qualification that 
the "war" with Voldemort wasn't a war in the specific sense of 
fighting with weapons on a field, but rather a systematic campaign of 
terror and psychological warfare. The Aurors and Dept. of Mystery-
type people seem to me to be more of a police force than a military 
unit (like a SWAT team versus the National Guard, if you're a US 
citizen; what the British equivalent would be, I'm not sure.) ........

Pip:
The Department of Mystery is, I think, a joke about our Intelligence 
Services, popularly known as MI5 (internal) and MI6 (external)- which 
until recently were so deeply secretive that they didn't even 
officially exist.

[They have now admitted that yes, they do exist, and MI5 has proved 
it by moving into a lovely, new, and *extremely* obvious headquarters 
on the south bank of the Thames - which has been used (outside shots 
*only*) in recent James Bond films.]

I don't think we really have an Auror equivalent - Armed Response 
Units in the police might be closest. Or the hotly argued 'shoot-to-
kill' policy the British Government might or might not have had vis-a-
vis the Irish Republicans could well fit.

Yr Arwen:
I get this impression from the description of largely domestic 
violence in the recounting of the past conflict -- for example, the 
Potters and the Longbottoms are killed/tortured in their own homes, 
as opposed to a physical battlefield. Pettigrew's curse blows a 
street apart, taking innocent bystanders out along with Aurors. The 
feuds between various parties are between families, rather than 
countries (eg. the Weasleys and Malfoys), and at the conclusion of 
the war, punishment is meted out in the form of summary court 
justice, as seen with Crouch, who unhesitatingly condemns his own son.
>
 
Pip:
Yes. I briefly mentioned this in my original Spying Game post 
(#39662), where I pointed out that the Voldemort-Potter war owes a 
lot to the recent 20 year long civil war in the United Kingdom. This 
mostly took place in Northern Ireland, but often spread out over the 
whole of the UK. That war was conducted in a series of small raids, 
often on people's homes, explosions in the middle of a busy street 
full of innocent bystanders etc. Equally, justice could be pretty 
summary, with no juries sitting and the case decided by one Judge. 

Yr Arwen:
> Digression... I wonder what the extent of Voldy's campaign was -- 
if it was specific to the British Isles, or if its effects were felt 
elsewhere, like the Continent or even in the States. The presence of 
people like Dholov and Karkaroff indicates that there were people in 
Europe sympathetic to Voldemort's cause, but Voldemort's motives in 
his little power struggle seem incredibly opaque. Dumbledore talks of 
enlisting the aid of the giants and other quasi-humans who might find 
Voldemort's offer of enfranchisement attractive, but I don't think he 
ever says, "You know, we should see if the Spanish wizards and 
witches could help us out" or something like that. Anyway... back to 
your regularly scheduled program:

Pip:
If it was like the 'Troubles' (masterpiece of Irish understatement 
there [grin]) then the DE's would probably have been in contact with 
similarly minded overseas groups, but each would have been 
concentrating on disrupting their own country. Which would fit with 
the Potterverse.

Voldemort seems to be basing his strategy on taking control of the 
British WW.  This may well be like Hitler concentrating on taking 
control of Germany before he turned his mind to the rest of the world.

[At least, the only non-British DE we know about is Karkaroff, and 
the way the not-exactly-free-with-first-names Snape calls him 'Igor' 
suggests Karkaroff was primarily working in the UK during his DE 
period (long enough for he and Snape to get on first name terms, 
anyway).]

I've argued before (#40044) that it's beyond belief that the only 
wizards to come Voldemort's way in Albania (Quirrel, Pettigrew and 
Bertha Jorkins) just happened to be British. He was *waiting* for 
Brits - only they would have the sort of information/access he needed.

> Yr Arwen:
> Given what we know of Dumbledore's tactics in the past war (not 
much), I'd say that your "intelligence unit" theory is sort of close 
to what I'm trying, unsuccessfully, to envision. Dumbledore is a 
great hero, famed for his defeat of Grindelwald and discovery of 12 
uses of dragon's blood and all that -- and he's the one wizard 
Voldemort always feared (maybe because he's not afraid of Voldemort, 
who thrives on fear.) He's famous, which would make him ill-suited 
for intelligence work. A strategist is maybe what I'm going for here, 
one who takes information from *all* fields -- covert intelligence, 
street talk, government mutterings -- to shape his strategy. 

Pip:
There's strong canon support for Dumbledore using spies. 'Sources' 
are mentioned in CS, 'spies' in PoA, Snape's undercover career in 
GoF, etc, etc. As a good spymaster, he would of course listen to 
rumours and government mutterings as well.

Yr Arwen:
Yet, the extent to which he is successful in that first conflict is 
highly in doubt; I don't think the status of the war as of 
Voldemort's unexpected death (emphasis, 'unexpected') is ever made 
clear. Are the good guys winning, or was Voldemort's temporary 
incapacitation a stroke of fortune?
> 

Pip:
By the way everyone refuses to mention Voldemort's name; and the 
reactions displayed in GoF Chapter Nine - The Dark Mark; plus the joy 
displayed at the very beginning of PS/SS in the WW - the good guys 
were *losing*, folks.

And can you see Peter Pettigrew betraying the Potters out of noble 
idealism for the 'Purity of Blood' ideal? No? Me neither. He was 
trying to make a switch to the winning side.

> Corinth:
> However, he 
> needs some extremely brave and trustworthy agents for this job.  
> Unable to trust many of his colleagues/friends in the MoM, and 
> unable to use aurors whom the Death Eaters would recognize, 
> Dumbledore turns to Hogwarts.<<<<<<< 
> 

Pip:
But he couldn't trust *all* his Hogwarts students. Sirius Black in 
PoA talks about 'a gang of Slytherins who nearly all became Death 
Eaters [note the 'nearly' - not all Slytherins became DE's.]

Hogwarts is only *relatively* isolated from the WW - the students are 
currently on the same 'sides' that their parents are (or in Harry's 
case, were).

This may change in later books, as the kids get old enough to want to 
be mentally independent from the views they've inherited. The most 
likely to switch sides are Draco (simply because he's the *only* DE-
by-inheritance we know much about) and one of the Weasley's - 
probably Ron (that long snit with Harry in GoF and his constant moans 
about having no money suggest he might a) get angry enough with Harry 
to consider switching and b)have a motive for thinking that his 
parents ideals, which have led to their relative poverty, are stupid).

Dumbledore's 'old crowd' probably consisted of people he knew very 
well; some of them would be his old students (from varying 
Hogwarts 'generations') and some of them his old friends.

Yr Arwen:
> This would make sense in the context of the very beginning of 
PS/SS, when McGonagall appears to be completely in the dark regarding 
Dumbledore's plans for Harry; she mentions that the only reason she's 
hanging out on Privet Drive was because Hagrid tipped her off. 
Interesting! 
> 

Pip:
Deeply, especially since her comments in PoA about *remembering* 
Dumbledore offering to be the Potter's secret Keeper (p.153 UK 
hardback) suggest that *before* the Potter's deaths she was very 
close in Dumbledore's confidence.

*After* the Potter's death, though, she wasn't. And Harry may be in 
her house, but it's *SNAPE* who keeps turning up to try and protect 
him.
Very Interesting!

> Corinth:
> I believe he is once again beginning an internal battle: determine 
> who to trust within the MoM, inform officials of the true threat 
> and gain their loyalty, gain the trust of the giants, possibly 
> infiltrate the DE ranks (I don't believe Snape is doing this 
> though; too obvious).<<<<<<<<<<
>
 
Yr Arwen:
> One would probably say that that's the only way to fight a battle, 
especially against members of your own community. Fudge and other 
like-minded individuals strike me as being in a particularly 
dangerous form of denial.

> 
> Corinth:
> I think you misinterpreted my description of Molly's reaction.  I 
> didn't say it implied a lack of courage.  It implied a lack of 
> knowledge.  She knew Sirius Black as a murderer and nothing more.  
> I think she and Arthur will play a large and courageous role in the 
> coming fight, simply not in the past one.<<<<<<<<<<

<Snip Yr Arwen's arguments in favour of Arthur and Molly being part 
of the old crowd>

Yr Arwen: 
> At this point, I'm wondering if the 'old crowd' constitutes not 
Dumbledore's "insiders" as you say, in a general sense, but rather 
the people more intimately connected with the protection of Harry (in 
addition to his parents.) You have Sirius who was supposed to be the 
Potters' Secret-Keeper, Lupin the close friend/associate of Sirius 
and James and who knew of the plans to use the Fidelius Charm, 
Arabella who is presumably Harry's 'guardian' for the duration of his 
life on Privet Drive, and then Fletcher, who at this point is an 
utter mystery and throws my fledgling theory into doubt <g>
>

Pip:
And the Weasley's, who fulfil the same function as Arabella when he's 
physically away from the Dursley's but not at Hogwarts. To quote from 
my post #40044:(All page references to GoF UK hardback)

"Voldemort remarks that he was "Not yet strong enough to risk kidnap 
in the midst of a horde of Ministry wizards. ( p. 570 )

Since Harry stays with the Weasley's for nearly two weeks after the 
QWC, Voldemort obviously doesn't feel strong enough to risk kidnap in 
the midst of a horde of Weasley's, either. Do you notice that Bill 
and Charlie Weasley continue to stay at The Burrow for the rest of 
the school holidays? So that Harry has at least one adult Weasley 
with him at all times?

"Molly, are you going to be all right taking the kids to Kings 
Cross?" ( p. 143 )

Molly says 'Of course', but later "Bill and Charlie decided to come 
and see everyone off at Kings Cross Station" ( p. 144.) "
End Quote.

Since Harry has stayed at The Burrow with only Arthur and Molly 
there, this looks like Arthur, Molly, Bill and Charlie are all part 
of the 'Protect the Last of the Potters' society.

<Snip>

Pip (more spies, I'm afraid. I do write posts about other things, 
though.[grin])