Lupin, the Moon, the Bewitching Hour and the Timeline (WAS TAGS )

[cindysphynx]

No: HPFGUIDX 32772

Slon wrote:

> I bandied it about for about a week before I 
> realized the fatal flaw.  The full moon at midnight makes perfect 
> sense, except for one small problem.  All the events are over 
BEFORE 
> midnight.
> 
> <snip quote from PoA> 

Ah, but therein lies the beauty of Mahoney's theory.  We are using 
midnight as an illustration only.  The bewitching hour (or moment) 
might have been 11:30; it might have been 11:00.  The point is that 
the time triggers the transformation, not the moonlight.  

Now, as I understand the theory, the bewitching time could well be 
related to some characteristic of the moon -- how full it is, how 
long it has been full, its color, whatever.  The betwitching time 
could vary from month to month, or even day to day.  The only thing 
that matters is that Lupin have some basis to calculate it.  It does 
not have to be midnight.

Slon again:

>From all these 
> events, and the fact that they didn't leave until 11:55 pm it would 
> seem that Lupin probably transformed sometime between 10:30 and 
11:15.

Hmmm.  I'm trying to work through this time-line a bit.  Let's see.  

If we round it off, Hermione, Harry and Ron leave the castle at 
9:00.  They have a visit with Hagrid, and then a one-hour trip to 
Hogsmeade in the tunnel.  According to canon, the tunnel trip Harry 
takes to Honeydukes takes "ages" and Harry doesn't arrive until "what 
felt like an hour."  The Whomping Willow tunnel felt "as least as 
long as the one to Honeydukes."

So they get to the Shrieking Shack with two hours remaining out of 
their three-hour window (assuming Harry and Hermione make the tunnel 
trip in under an hour because they are running, but they lost some 
time visiting with Hagrid, fighting the willow, and capturing 
Scabbers).  We don't know how long they are in the Shack, but we know 
that they lose at least an hour on the return trip in the tunnel 
because they are walking gingerly and awkwardly with Pettigrew and 
Ron.  Let's assume the return trip is 1 hour, 15 minutes.  

So now they have only 45 minutes remaining out of their three-hour 
window.  So far, no time has been allotted for the events of the 
Shrieking Shack, Lupin's transformation, the dementor's attack, 
Snape's rescue, Dumbledore's meeting with Black, and regaining 
consciousness.  These latter events must happen *very* quickly.

If I do the math correctly, I would guess Lupin transforms pretty 
late -- around 11:20-11:25 would be my guess.  This assumes you take 
8:55, add 2:15 for tunnel travel and 15 minutes in the Shack.

Cindy (wondering if this totally unnecessary timeline obsession will 
finally earn her status as a L.O.O.N.)