Voldemort's Resurrection WAS The Spying Game and the Shrieking Shack

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 39780

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "marinafrants" <rusalka at i...> wrote:
> --- In HPforGrownups at y..., "grey_wolf_c" <greywolf1 at j...> wrote:
> > Marina said:
> (about Wormtail's escape)
>  So Dumbledore carefully
> > > plans this incredibly risky and complex charade, requiring a 
> > > great deal of luck, precision timing, and Oscar-caliber acting 
> > > on Snape's part -- and then he *completely fails to anticipate 
> > > his own plan's biggest consequence?*
> > 

Grey Wolf replies:
> > (OK; for the fourth time in the ongoing series) But D knew it was 
> > coming! He had engineered that way. What he didn't see was the 
> > Portkey!Cup (why else, I insist, would Cedric be the only back-up
> > Harry has in the graveyard scene?).
> 

Marina replies:
> So what was Dumbledore expecting -- that Wormtail would run off and
> find Voldemort and then the two of them would just hang around 
> Albania for the next ten years, wondering how to get Harry out of 
> Hogwarts? It was impossible for Dumbledore to predict the Portkey 
> Plot, but if he was planning all this he certainly should've 
> anticipated that Voldemort with Wormtail's assistance could come 
> back a lot sooner thanthan Voldemort without Wormtail's 
> assistance.  Especially since, as both you and Wormtail himself 
> pointed out, it didn't need to be Harry's blood for the potion to   
> work. 

No, but that was covered in PS/SS where Dumbledore announces that 
Harry's protection from his mother was in his 'very skin'; giving 
Voldemort the idea that using Harry's blood would give him the same 
protection. [Assuming that the Harry-Voldemort dream connection is 
two-way]. 

Even if Voldemort had decided to use someone other than Harry (as 
Grey Wolf says, Plan B), he has still picked a resurrection route 
that involves becoming mortal (and killable) again - a vast 
improvement on the 'noxious gas' state where-you-can't-*kill*-him.

He has also still used a servant with a life-debt for the potion - 
which may be just as big a mistake as using Harry's blood. The fact 
that Dumbledore at the end of GoF has planned for and achieved 
his 'best possible outcome' does NOT mean he didn't have plans for 
all the other possible outcomes.

I think Dumbledore's greatest problem at the beginning of PS/SS is 
that unless he himself chooses immortality (and he seems to think it 
would have a bad effect - almost like Gandalf refusing the One Ring) 
HE WILL DIE. Voldemort at that point is *immortal*. This is 
definitely a problem, especially when you're as old as Dumbledore.

His second greatest problem in PS/SS is that the only other wizard in 
the world powerful enough to defeat Voldemort is currently an eleven 
year old child. [grin] 

I agree with Grey Wolf; I think the Portkey was a near-disaster. 
Dumbledore thought the attack would come in Hogwarts, where he'd be 
able to give Harry support, and that with support Harry's natural 
magical genius would be strong enough to keep him alive. What he says 
about the portkey is
"You have shown bravery beyond anything I could have expected of you" 
(GoF UK Hardback p. 603) - strongly suggesting that he did *not* 
expect the Graveyard scene.

> In fact, Dumbledore got lucky
> that Voldemort and Wormtail (and Crouch, Jr.) came up with the 
> Portkey Plot, as that gave him extra time.  They could've grabbed 
> any random Auror off the street and used his or her blood.  Hell, 
> they could've used Moody, instead of using him for Polyjuice 
> fodder, and come back nearly a year earlier.
> 
> No, no matter how I look at it, it still seems that Dumbledore
> would've done much better to clear Sirius and hand Wormtail over to
> the Dementors.  The benefits of the life-debt just don't outweigh 
> the resulting drawbacks.  (Well, there's a good chance that the 
> life-debt will be crucial in the end, because of the foreshadowing 
> JKR has done about it, but that's metathinking. :-)
> 
> Part of successful strategy is knowing when *not* to make a move, 
> when to sit tight and let the enemy dig his own grave.  From that
> perspective, it seems that Voldemort proved to be the better
> stragetist post-PS/SS, patiently biding his time in Albania until
> Dumbledore obligingly sent him a willing servant.
> 

Except Voldemort didn't patiently bide his time....

In CoS Dumbledore says:
"What interests me most is how Lord Voldemort  managed to enchant 
Ginny..."

[This is a Voldemort plan]

After he's been given the diary:

"Older and wiser wizards than she [Ginny] have been hoodwinked by 
Lord Voldemort"

[This is still a Voldemort plan]

"But this time,  Lord Voldemort was acting through somebody else. By 
means of this diary." (and Dumbledore is described as 'watching Mr. 
Malfoy closely').

[This is a Voldemort plan. Voldemort had to give someone else orders 
to do the actual work, but this is a Voldemort plan].

At the beginning of PoA Dumbledore has just fought a battle in CoS  
with Lord Voldemort; Voldemort came close to killing Harry, nearly 
closed Hogwarts, caused one of Dumbledore's most loyal supporters to 
be carted off to Azkaban, showed the DE's have enough influence to 
(temporarily)  remove Dumbledore from Hogwarts, nearly ruined the 
Weasley's standing, and only failed to kill several students by the 
most incredible good luck.

Part of successful strategy is knowing when you *have* to make a 
move; sending Voldemort Peter turned Voldemort's mind towards 
regaining his body, rather than making further (and more successful) 
attacks on Hogwarts. 

The likely reason Voldemort didn't make any major move in PoA is the 
incredible security around Harry and Hogwarts after Sirius's escape 
probably made it unfeasible. There are still pinpricks, though. Every 
effort is made to discredit Hagrid (and through Hagrid, Dumbledore, 
who has chosen to make Hagrid a teacher); Malfoy may also have been 
hoping that the execution of Buckbeak would make Hagrid do something 
stupid enough to be sent to Azkaban for real this time. [Hagrid 
actually suggests this himself, but is too scared of Azkaban].

 By the time the security is downgraded (Fudge's comments at the end 
of PoA make it clear they're just changing from Dementors, not 
removing it) Peter has arrived in Albania.

Pip