Dishwashers , Puppy hunts and werewolf excursions

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 39874

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> wrote:

>  The situation changes when Sirius turns up missing and  
> evidence is found that  he planned to declare himself openly  for 
> Voldemort when the Potters died. Then Dumbledore wants 
> Sirius found. The Ministry has far better resources for a 
> puppy-hunt  than Dumbledore has, once they bestir themselves. 
> It doesn't make sense for Dumbledore to hold back any 
> information that will help locate Black. Better to find him first, 
> and *if* he turns out to be innocent of betraying the Potters, and 
> *if* the Ministry is able to substantiate that Black is an 
> animagus, then Dumbledore can worry about helping Black beat the 
> unregistered animagus rap. 

Several questions with this - firstly, what evidence? What Fudge says 
is 
''Black was tired of his double-agent role, he was ready to declare 
his support openly for you-know-who, and he seems to have planned 
this for the moment of the Potters' death.'' (PoA, p. 153, UK 
hardback)

This could be taken to mean a) Fudge is indulging in after-the-event 
speculation
b) Peter planted evidence that was found *after* the street fight. 
That the Ministry had evidence *before* the street fight is only one 
possiblity out of several - c), in fact.

Your scenario is that he was 'missing' for about 24 to 36 hours, mine 
that he was 'missing' for about 8 to 12. Neither is very much time 
when Dumbledore is probably trying to work out Harry's protection. 
Evil or not, McGonagall certainly didn't seem to know where to find 
Dumbledore during that time period, or she'd have asked him those 
interesting questions earlier. Yet she was close enough in his 
confidence that she knew Dumbledore had offered to be Secret Keeper 
himself (PoA p. 153)

You're assuming that finding Black would be the most urgent thing on 
Dumbledore's mind, I'm assuming that Dumbledore would think 
protecting Harry was the most immediately vital. Murder is an 
emergency before it's committed; not after. 

<Snip>

> Well, I'm not sure. In the first place, it all depends on what you 
> think Rosmerta meant by "the next day." I know I'm disagreeing 
> with the lexicon here, but as Steve himself says, the owls don't 
> start flying till the morning of November 1st. Logically, if  Fudge 
> and Rosmerta  remember that the Ministry caught up with Sirius  
> the day after they heard about the Potters' deaths, it   would  
have 
> been November 2nd. 

It would also have been a very long time for Peter to quake in his 
boots.[grin] I think Peter would have been trying to find Sirius as 
fast as he could - he certainly got there before the Ministry.

> 
> I could be wrong. However,  in any case either the Ministry 
> questioned Dumbledore about  Sirius, or he volunteered 
> information to them. If the Ministry had already caught Sirius,  
> why would they question Dumbledore? They're not bothering 
> with a trial so they don't need evidence.

Canon is debateable about whether Sirius did or didn't get a trial - 
besides, just because you don't get a formal trial, doesn't mean 
Crouch didn't double check Sirius WAS the Secret Keeper - which would 
mean Dumbledore giving evidence after Sirius's arrest. 

  And if Dumbledore is a 
> spymaster who gives out information on a need to know basis 
> only, why did he volunteer information  about the Secret Keeper 
> spell when  Sirius had already been caught?

The Secret Keeper spell was blown anyway - the people it was supposed 
to protect were dead. Harry had received new protection.
> 
> Pipsqueak:
> >>
> Black was off to Azkaban - exposing him as an illegal animagi 
> would also involve exposing the genuinely heroic James and the 
> supposedly heroic Pettigrew as law-breakers. <<
> 
> Nice try <g> But  all Dumbledore has to say is, "I have an 
> unconfirmed report that Sirius Black is an animagus. He can 
> take the shape of a large black dog. Please tell your people to be 
> careful."  

Why?? For what reason do the Ministry need to know? They know they 
need to be careful - he's just supposed to have killed 12 muggles. If 
there is a spell that stops someone using any magic whatever, I 
imagine they used it on Black until he was safely in Azkaban.

Besides, did anyone know before Sirius Black went to Azkaban that 
being an Animagi was a defense against Dementors? With an average of 
7 to 10 Animagi a century, how likely was it one had ever been *near* 
Azkaban before? Do you think Dumbledore should have told them 'watch 
out, he got incredibly good marks in Muggle Studies, he's quite 
capable of building a boat' [or whatever]. 

To escape from Azkaban Sirius had to discover that being an Animagi 
was a defense against Dementors, retain his sanity and magic powers 
when no one had done it for longer than a few months, lose enough 
weight to slip through a barred cell, survive swimming to the 
mainland - I know I postulate that Dumbledore is incredibly good at 
forward planning, but I think anticipating that lot would be 
straining even his abilities!

I stand by the ambiguity of the canon. Dumbledore says 'an 
extraordinary achievement - not least keeping it quiet from me'(PoA 
p. 312) when he could have said 'an extraordinary acheivement - not 
least that it's one of the few things I've never found out' or 
something else equally unambiguous. (See post 39841)

Dumbledore reminds me very much of the old joke; he is never 
ambiguous - by accident.

Pip