[HPforGrownups] Re: Spying Game Part II

[Alexander]

No: HPFGUIDX 40069

  Greetings!

*** I wrote:

>> In this situation battle had to go to the end.

*** Pip replied:

b> You might well end up being absolutely right. But isn't
b> it a key point in military strategies that 'wars are not
b> won by the side who makes no mistakes; because all sides
b> always make mistakes. Wars are won by the side who makes
b> the LEAST mistakes.' [grin]

  Not exactly. Some mistakes are more important than others.

b> I would argue against Voldemort believing that THIS was
b> the decisive battle that has to go to an end. He's just
b> resurrected, he has his human body back, but he's had to
b> pay a price for that.

  That's probably right.

b> (...)

b> This is not a 'Fight to the end' situation (In
b> Voldemort's view). It's an 'allow yourself a line of
b> retreat situation' - which the majority of battles are.

  I agree that Voldemort most likely considered this battle
the way you described. Still, it was the mistake. Look
below.

b> Truly decisive battles are very rare.

  Disagreed. Every war has a decisive battle. Winner of the
decisive battle can win the war by "standard technical
methods", described in all military regulations. ;)

*** However, as Grey Wolf has written:

gw> There are two things I want to point out, though: most
gw> of the decisive battles were not identified as such
gw> until *after* the war, when historians could examine all
gw> the evidence and point out: "there they should have
gw> commited their forces. They didn't, thus, they lost. It
gw> was the decisive battle, and they didn't see it." The
gw> trouble, when you're in a war, is identifying the battle
gw> as decisive.

  I agree completely. That's why Klauzevitz warned in his
works, that *every* battle can prove to be decisive. And
that's why German strategists in both WW's tried to win the
war in a *single* operation - to reduce the chaotic element
to the minimum.

gw> Yes, Voldemort probably made a mistake at not managing
gw> to kill Harry, but it is not as terrible a mistake as it
gw> wuld be in a muggle war, because there is another
gw> objective in Voldemort's mind: inmortality. If Voldemort
gw> manages to find a way into inmortality before Dumbledore
gw> can destroy him, battles will mean nothing, because he
gw> cannot be defeaten. He will keep reviving until he wins.
gw> From behind the perfect defense, you only have to wait
gw> until your enemy makes a mistake, and (from an infinite
gw> lenght of time point of view) that mistake, sooner or
gw> later, will be made.

  First, there is no such thing as "absolute defence".

  Second, no matter what defence Voldie comes up with, Harry
is the most probable person to crack it open.

  Third, with Harry dead, research for immortality can be
performed in much more comfortable situation.

  And a slight mistake on your side: Voldemort still did NOT
get immortality, neither he knew how to achieve it. Yes, one
of his experiments worked, if only partially, but which one?
He doesn't know. The only way to know is to experiment... ;)

  So, Voldemort does *not* know how long will his quest for
immortality take. At the same time he knows for sure how
much time Harry needs to get to the height of his powers: 3
years in Hogwarts.

  Voldemort had all the necessary information to make the
correct decision. So it was just what it was: a mistake on
his part. The mistake that will bring his doom.

*** Grey Wolf also wrote:

gw> Can we count you in as a convinced listee, then? The
gw> theory fits and, if you're the same kind of war fan I am
gw> (which looks probable, by reading your post), I'm sure
gw> you'll love all its ramifications.

  Count me a convicted listee, whatever this means. ;)

  As for loving all ramifications... I love analytic work. I
care the least for the scenario, or SHIPs, or who will get
killed. What I am thrilled about is the internal logic of
Potterverse - all the laws, axioms, theorems and theories
that can be extracted from the books. In game terms, I'm
interested in the rules, not in the setting.

*** And then Grey Wolf wrote even more:

gw> The other possibility is that the cup was altready
gw> enchanted as a portkey, to get whomever touched it to
gw> the entrance of the maze, and Crouch!Moody, being
gw> uncapable of destroying that enchantment, simply put one
gw> before it: the one that sends you to the graveyard.

  And that's an idea worth putting into the HP Lexicon,
IMHO. I didn't think about it beforehand, but now that you
said it, I believe that's how it was.

  It is indeed logical to put such enchantment. Or the
winner can potentially be eaten by the Skrewts on way
back... ;)

Sincerely yours,
Alexander Lomski,
Gryffindor/Slytherin crossbreed,
always happy to throw weird ideas into community.

Wednesday, June 19, 2002, 16:40 local time (GMT+2:00)