Spying Game Part II

[grey_wolf_c]

No: HPFGUIDX 40077

Alexander wrote:
> *** Pip replied:
> b> Truly decisive battles are very rare.
> 
>   Disagreed. Every war has a decisive battle. Winner of the
> decisive battle can win the war by "standard technical
> methods", described in all military regulations. ;)

You're, in fact, both right. Decisive battles *are* rare, even if every 
war has one. After all, if you divide the number of decisive battles of 
history by the total number of battles in history, you'd probably get 
less than 1%. That's *rare.*

> *** However, as Grey Wolf has written: 
> gw> Yes, Voldemort probably made a mistake at not managing
> gw> to kill Harry, but it is not as terrible a mistake as it
> gw> wuld be in a muggle war, because there is another
> gw> objective in Voldemort's mind: inmortality. If Voldemort
> gw> manages to find a way into inmortality before Dumbledore
> gw> can destroy him, battles will mean nothing, because he
> gw> cannot be defeaten. He will keep reviving until he wins.
> gw> From behind the perfect defense, you only have to wait
> gw> until your enemy makes a mistake, and (from an infinite
> gw> lenght of time point of view) that mistake, sooner or
> gw> later, will be made.
> 
>   First, there is no such thing as "absolute defence".
> 
>   Second, no matter what defence Voldie comes up with, Harry
> is the most probable person to crack it open.
> 
>   Third, with Harry dead, research for immortality can be
> performed in much more comfortable situation.

Well, there's where we differ. I'm basing my thoughts on the fact that 
Voldemort has, indeed, almost managed the "perfect" defence. If he 
manages to become inmortal, there's not a d*mned thing anyone can do to 
win him. It's not going to happen, though, because he has made 
mistakes, and in the end those mistakes will outweight the mistakes 
Dumbledore has done.

Your second point is metathinking, so I'm not going to comment too much 
on it. From Voldemort's point of view, Harry is a dangerour opponent, 
but Dumbledore is still the main enemy he has. And indeed, his defenses 
will be attacked by Dumbledore, even if it's by using Harry, at least 
for a few books. I don't really expect Harry to start taking command of 
things until he's 17.

I agree that taking care of Harry would make things much easier for 
Dumbledore, but you can say that of any enemy. Germany would have had 
no troubles to take over the world if it hadn't been for Russia, 
England and the USA. However, things would not be absolutely easy, 
since Dumbledore would still be around, and I'm sure he has a plan B 
for the case where Harry buys the farm (i.e., is killed)
 
>   And a slight mistake on your side: Voldemort still did NOT
> get immortality, neither he knew how to achieve it. Yes, one
> of his experiments worked, if only partially, but which one?
> He doesn't know. The only way to know is to experiment... ;)

I believe ha was inmortal while in vapuor form. Not powerful, so 
Voldemort didn't enjoy the shape, but he *was* inmortal. I've mentioned 
in another post that I'm waiting to see how JKR evades the question of 
Voldemort using his old inmortality spells again, since they *did* 
work, even if with some unexpected results...
 
>   So, Voldemort does *not* know how long will his quest for
> immortality take. At the same time he knows for sure how
> much time Harry needs to get to the height of his powers: 3
> years in Hogwarts.

He was willing to face Dumbledore in the height of his powers before 
the AK accident. Why would he suddenly turn coward, and not face Harry?

>   Voldemort had all the necessary information to make the
> correct decision. So it was just what it was: a mistake on
> his part. The mistake that will bring his doom.

And that's where MAGIC DISHWASHER kicks in: he hadn't, in fact, all the 
*correct* information. The spy war that had been waging between him and 
Dumbledore has finally reached a boiling point, and Voldemort has been 
taking decisions on wrong information. First one, that his mortal body 
is as good as the old one, and that he may achive inmortality through 
it. The dishwasher theory states that, in fact, the potion was flawed 
and that his body is not as good as the old one. But he doesn't know, 
because that's what the war is all about. There has been a decisive 
victory in the information war, as well as in the physical one: 
Voldemort took the wrong potion. And THAT will bring his doom. Even if 
Harry had been killed in the graveyard, Dumbledore would have had the 
pieces in place for the chackmate. Harry is his chess-queen, the most 
powerful piece, but his other pieces are still waiting.

> *** Grey Wolf also wrote:
> 
> gw> Can we count you in as a convinced listee, then? The
> gw> theory fits and, if you're the same kind of war fan I am
> gw> (which looks probable, by reading your post), I'm sure
> gw> you'll love all its ramifications.
> 
>   Count me a convicted listee, whatever this means. ;)

Convicted? I hope that was a typo :-)

>   As for loving all ramifications... I love analytic work. I
> care the least for the scenario, or SHIPs, or who will get
> killed. What I am thrilled about is the internal logic of
> Potterverse - all the laws, axioms, theorems and theories
> that can be extracted from the books. In game terms, I'm
> interested in the rules, not in the setting.

That's my favourite part, too, specially when working out rules and 
comparing them to the other fantasy worlds. That's why I like this 
thory: it works on a set of pre-set rules that aren't based in some 
metathinking JKR's will, but on a simple information war, and still    
*everything fits*

> *** And then Grey Wolf wrote even more:
> gw> The other possibility is that the cup was altready
> gw> enchanted as a portkey, to get whomever touched it to
> gw> the entrance of the maze, and Crouch!Moody, being
> gw> uncapable of destroying that enchantment, simply put one
> gw> before it: the one that sends you to the graveyard.
> 
>   And that's an idea worth putting into the HP Lexicon,
> IMHO. I didn't think about it beforehand, but now that you
> said it, I believe that's how it was.
> 
>   It is indeed logical to put such enchantment. Or the
> winner can potentially be eaten by the Skrewts on way
> back... ;)

Why, thank you, you honour me.

> Sincerely yours,
> Alexander Lomski,
> Gryffindor/Slytherin crossbreed,
> always happy to throw weird ideas into community.

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf