[HPforGrownups] Re: Spying Game Part II

[Alexander]

No: HPFGUIDX 40085

  Greetings!

> Gray wolf wrote:

g> His DEs know he's once again powerful, know he can touch
g> Harry, and know he can make Harry flee. He looks like the
g> old wizard he once was. And, as soons as one of them adds
g> one and one, they will realize that the Pirori Incantatem
g> effect was a stupid coincidence, and they will get
g> Voldemort a new wand so he can kill the brat.

  I disagree here. In PS/SS, Harry faced Voldemort in weak
state, and won, but was left unconscious. In CoS, Harry
again faced Voldemort, in Tom Riddle's state (not weakened,
but not trained fully either), and won, but was left
battered down. In GoF, Harry faced fully recovered Voldemort
after being weakened, wounded and tormented (and his defence
removed), and Harry escaped, taking a dead body with him
(ya, he even had time to carry away a dead body - didn't
want to leave without a gift ;)

  Harry is actually doing better all the time - it can be
seen quite clearly.

g> Not only that: this time, the face off between Voldemort
g> and Harry hsn't finished in Voldemort's defeat, but in a
g> draw of sorts (although I can tell you that the side that
g> flees the battlefield is generally accepted as the
g> defeated party).

  Hmm... have you studied the theories of Sea Control?

  If we have a country that controls the sea, and country
that attempts to gain such control, the war is inevitable.
If this war is "hot" (that is, the conflict is resolved by
military means), then goals of the sides are as follows:

  1. Country that controls the sea *must win* to prove that
     it is still the leader.
  2. Country that contests the control of the sea *must not
     lose* to prove that old leader fails to maintain the
     control.

  That was described in mid-XIXth century. These truths
didn't change until now, even though the idea of "Sea
Control" has changed (for modern world, it's communication
control).

  The problem is, if you fail to destroy your new opponent,
you show your inability to do so. In the next battle you
will have much worse chances. That's what Voldemort did - he
failed to win the duel with Harry. Duel, which was organized
by Voldemort, and he himself did his followers know this. So
now DE's know for sure that Voldemort cannot kill Harry even
if he is the one to shuffle the deck. I cannot consider this
a loss for Harry's side - there will be a lot of hard
thinking for DE's - do they really need to stay on Voldie's
side, if he is a sucker?

>>   First, there is no such thing as "absolute defence".

g> Well, there's where we differ. I'm basing my thoughts on
g> the fact that Voldemort has, indeed, almost managed the
g> "perfect" defence. If he manages to become inmortal,
g> there's not a d*mned thing anyone can do to win him.

  Nope. Every time he dies, he becomes weaker. More DE's are
caught, less chances to get Harry's blood. Also there's only
a limited supply of father's bones and servant's hands... ;)

g> It's not going to happen, though, because he has made
g> mistakes, and in the end those mistakes will outweight
g> the mistakes Dumbledore has done.

  Now *that*'s metathinking. ;)

>> Second, no matter what defence Voldie comes up with,
>> Harry is the most probable person to crack it open.

g> Your second point is metathinking, so I'm not going to
g> comment too much on it. From Voldemort's point of view,
g> Harry is a dangerour opponent, but Dumbledore is still
g> the main enemy he has. And indeed, his defenses will be
g> attacked by Dumbledore, even if it's by using Harry, at
g> least for a few books. I don't really expect Harry to
g> start taking command of things until he's 17.

  Disagreed here. My second point is obvious for everyone in
Potterverse who is of importance in the conflict (that is,
to Dumbledore, Voldemort, DE's and Harry).

  As for Harry taking responsibility, well, I wouldn't be
the least surprised if he will start taking it in OoP. After
all, he is already 14, and will be 15 soon. Given his
upbringing, he is effectively an adult person (actually, he
is already incredibly adult in PS, and already a natural
leader and capable to take responsibility for others).

>> Third, with Harry dead, research for immortality can be
>> performed in much more comfortable situation.

g> I agree that taking care of Harry would make things much
g> easier for Dumbledore, but you can say that of any enemy.

  True, but Harry is not "any enemy". Harry is the personal
enemy, the bullet with the name "Voldemort" on it. Yes, it
is Dumbledore who still provides the safe cover and clever
planning, but with time going by, Harry learns more and more
of it, and he's learning damn fast.

  Voldemort is absolutely right in aiming his attack on
Harry. Power of Dumbledore is unlikely to increase with time
(rather the other way around, given his age). Harry, on the
other side, is becoming more and more dangerous with each
day passing. It is Harry who is the main threat at present
time. Harry, not Dumbledore.

g> I've mentioned in another post that I'm waiting to see
g> how JKR evades the question of Voldemort using his old
g> inmortality spells again, since they *did* work, even if
g> with some unexpected results...

  Let him try to. He will just lose the time he could spend
more creatively (trying to kill Harry, for example ;)

>> So, Voldemort does *not* know how long will his quest for
>> immortality take. At the same time he knows for sure how
>> much time Harry needs to get to the height of his powers:
>> 3 years in Hogwarts.

g> He was willing to face Dumbledore in the height of his
g> powers before the AK accident. Why would he suddenly turn
g> coward, and not face Harry?

  Two sentences, two mistakes. Voldemort never dared to face
Dumbledore. And I didn't say Voldemort shouldn't face Harry
- in fact I was defending completely opposite point of view.

>> Voldemort had all the necessary information to make the
>> correct decision. So it was just what it was: a mistake
>> on his part. The mistake that will bring his doom.

g> And that's where MAGIC DISHWASHER kicks in: he hadn't, in
g> fact, all the *correct* information. (...) The dishwasher
g> theory states that, in fact, the potion was flawed and
g> that his body is not as good as the old one. But he
g> doesn't know, because that's what the war is all about.
g> There has been a decisive victory in the information war,
g> as well as in the physical one: Voldemort took the wrong
g> potion. And THAT will bring his doom. Even if Harry had
g> been killed in the graveyard, Dumbledore would have had
g> the pieces in place for the chackmate. Harry is his
g> chess-queen, the most powerful piece, but his other
g> pieces are still waiting.

  I disagree completely.

  If Voldemort kills Harry at the graveyard, *even* if the
potion was indeed flawed (which still has to be proven),
then Dumbledore is at a loss. If Harry escapes, even if
potion is ok, Voldemort is at a loss. The key of the
graveyard scene is not potion, but Harry (as always, this
little brat is the key figure ;).

  You suppose that even if Harry dies, Voldemort will still
lose because of flawed potion. For me, this sounds like
"Even if we lose Paris, we will still endanger the enemy
flank". Only when the flank is endangered, the Paris is lost
and the war is over...

  You consider Harry to be the chess queen in this party?
Right you are. But queens are not sacrificed in mittelspiel
to win a knight or a bishop. They are sacrificed in the
endspiel to declare a checkmate, if they are sacrificed at
all.

  If you provide me with an explanation on how Dumbledore
can win *quickly*, *decisively* and *reliably* after losing
Harry at the end of GoF, I will believe your theory
immediately. But not until then.

gw>>> Can we count you in as a convinced listee, then?

>>   Count me a convicted listee, whatever this means. ;)

g> Convicted? I hope that was a typo :-)

  (ROTFL) A typo indeed... well, consider me both. ;)

Sincerely yours,
Alexander Lomski,
Gryffindor/Slytherin crossbreed,
who is wondering when he will leave that moderated state,
given that no letters were rejected for last 4 months...

Wednesday, June 19, 2002, 23:49 local time (GMT+2:00)