Watched DEs (was Finding Voldemort)

[davewitley]

No: HPFGUIDX 40423

Pip wrote:

> ANY of the DE's could have physically reached Voldemort - the 
problem 
> was that the faithful DE's were all known, had their descriptions 
> circulated amongst Aurors, and would have been watched every inch 
of 
> the way to (and in) Albania. Faithful DE's couldn't 'find' 
Voldemort 
> because it would have meant letting Dumbledore know *exactly* where 
> Voldemort was. 
> 
I'm not sure whether you are assuming that Dumbledore is working in 
conjunction with the MOM here.

It seems pretty plain to me that the MOM relaxed pretty soon after 
Voldemort's disappearance: that's why the Longbottom incident was so 
shocking, because they'd all gone into VE-Day mode.

Yes, the aurors were active for a while, but I don't buy that all the 
suspected ex-DEs were being watched by the MOM for the whole period 
until we enter the canon years.  Fudge's 'he can't be' sounds 
completely sincere to me.

Dumbledore is a different matter.  He has understood that the threat 
has not gone, only gone away.  The problem here is one of resources: 
can he follow them all?  In other spheres his powers (despite claims 
of omniscience) do not actually extend to knowing where others are 
(though I can see it could be argued that he seems merely human 
because 90% of his attention is on Malfoy, McNair, etc).

If the WW has a way to follow (e.g.) Lucius Malfoy as he apparates 
rapidly round half the Mediterranean and then to a few Greek tourist 
destinations (perhaps including Corfu, swimming distance from the 
Albanian coast) and then takes in a couple of visits to Albania, I 
personally will hand Cornelius Fudge a yellow flag for his complete 
incompetence in failing to recapture Sirius Black.
> 
> Yes, there were attempts to find and reach Voldemort in the few 
> months after post-Baby!Harry chaos (the Lestranges) - which is when 
> it became very obvious indeed that suspected DE's were being 
closely 
> watched. However, not closely enough for the Longbottoms - in fact, 
> would the Lestranges have *been* arrested if they hadn't decided to 
> torture the Longbottoms to the point of insanity? Or would they 
> simply have been followed, in the hope that their search led the 
MoM 
> staight to Voldemort?

I question that it is 'obvious indeed that suspected DE's were being 
closely watched'.  If anything, the Longbottom incident shows how 
little they were watched.  Why is there doubt about the extent of 
Crouch's participation?  How *long* did the watchers stand and allow 
the Longbottoms to be tortured?  IIRC the perpetrators got away and 
had to be recaptured.

I can believe that for a few months *after* this that the MOM 
revamped their surveillance programme, having realised their 
mistake.  But as nothing happened, they would have wound it down 
again, IMO.
> 
> Lestranges managed to 'talk their way out of Azkaban' (p. 457 GoF, 
UK 
> hardback), huh? Or were allowed out because they were reckoned as 
> Most Likely DE's To Lead Us Straight To Voldemort?
> 
In which case, on the spying theory, the assessment was sadly 
mistaken, as they seem to have been the only ones incompetent enough 
*not* to be able to do so (unless the whole Longbottom thing was an 
elaborate blind).  As I understand the theory, any *other* DE could 
have found Voldemort in a trice, if only the MOM had been astute 
enough to let them believe they were not watched, or they could 
escape their watchers.

Incidentally I said earlier that I think Voldemort considers futile 
expressions of loyalty more important than winning.  I realised that 
that's not quite what I think: more that he is sure of winning (he 
sees it as his destiny), and will, in a manner reminisecnt of the 
Second Coming, eventually reward those followers who confessed him, 
not those who manoeuvred for him.

David, a firm believer in the cock-up theory of history (I mean, look 
at Suez for what happens when conspiracy is attemted)