Doomed, they're doomed! [Revised and expanded]

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 46136


Based on a post made back in June: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/39297

However, now revised, updated with people's suggestions and with 
estimated odds for death in Book 5 or death by Book 7.

[Terminology: The British way of saying ` odds 100 to 1' (or 
whatever) is the same thing as ` a bet of 1 Galleon gets you 100 
Galleons (plus stake back)if you win'. `Even money' means 1 to 1.]

Note: Wagers of Thirty Seven Galleons, fifteen Sickles, three Knuts 
and a fake wand will be regarded with deep suspicion.


Hagrid: In love, responsible mission, come to terms with his half-
giant-hood. Doomed, he's doomed.
(And JKR obviously loves Hagrid, so is he the Book 5 death she's 
going to find it very hard to write?)
Odds: Book 5: Even money. By Book 7: Not accepting bets. I tell you, 
he's DOOMED.

Sirius: Young, handsome, Harry's beloved Godfather, unjustly 
accused. Another completely doomed character. Death while Trying 
Bravely to Save Snape would be a bit obvious, but still workable. 
Besides, Sirius strikes me as the type who'd *enjoy* a good, 
redeeming death scene.
Book 5: 50 to 1. By Book 7: Even money.

Remus Lupin: Back in Book 5. Probability that JKR would find his 
death hard to write high, though werewolves can be surprisingly 
difficult to kill [ghostly voice says `the silvery hand
 the SILVERy 
hand
]
Book 5: 20 to 1. By Book 7: 3 to 1.

Dumbledore: Wise, noble, (grand) father figure to Harry, leads group 
of people through dangerous territory (so to speak). 
Has 'Watch out for the Balrog' sticker on his back.
Book 5: 100 to1. Book Six: Three to one. Book 7: Not accepting bets.

McGonagall: Currently too boring and underwritten to die.
Book 5: 500 to one. Book 6: 500 to one. Book 7: 10 to 1

Snape: Currently too sneaky, mean and tough to die. His death in a 
Bravely Redeeming Fashion would have a very high nausea rating. Also 
A Good Person Who Has Done Evil Things, which could come in useful 
for Ron (see below).
Book 5: 50 to 1. Book Six : 3 to 1. Book 7: Even money.


Besides, at least one of McGonagall or Snape has to survive, as 
someone has to explain all the plot points at the end of Book 7. ;-)


Neville Longbottom: More fun alive than dead, as currently hot 
favourite for Future Staff Member, with Tragic Past and possible 
Hidden Talents.
Book 5: 50 to 1. By Book 7: 20 to 1.

Draco Malfoy:And what a relief that would be! 
Draco's death would only be `horrible to write' if it was seriously 
gruesome. And would currently be fun to read. Which is probably not 
quite the effect JKR is aiming at, so:
Book 5: 1 000 000 to 1. By Book 7: Even money.
Side bets that Draco is strangled by Lucius Malfoy will be accepted 
at 10 to 1.

Colin Creavey: Has already survived one near-death experience, so 
killing him off would be a bit of a shock. But JKR likes shocks.
Book 5: 10 to 1. By Book 7: 3 to 1.

Dennis Creavey: Yes.  Well, we are talking about 'kill the spare' 
Rowling here. :-)
Book 5: Even money. By Book 7: No bets accepted.

Cho Chang: Would be hard on Harry. Would be great for the readers, 
as they would give a mighty cry of `Harry, she was no good for you, 
you really need [Hermione/Ginny/Draco/select SHIP/SLASH of choice]'.
Book 5: 50 to 1. By Book 7: 20 to 1.

Arabella Figg.
Currently hot favourite for DADA teacher, which means she has a 
target painted on her back, has been handed an employment contract 
which contains the Black Spot, and is finding extreme difficulty 
getting any medical insurance.
Book 5 death: 4 to 1. Book 5 permanent disablement: 2 to 1. 
Book 5 discovery that she is a vampire/zombie flesh eater/has pair 
of bolts in her neck: 2 to 1.
Chance of keeping the job to Book 6: No bets accepted.

Mundungus Fletcher: Who? Would you care? Would I care? Would JKR 
care?
Book 5 (for it being the `hard to write' one): 2000 to 1 Book 5 
(dying offscreen): 30 to 1. Death in any form by Book 7: 3 to 1.


Any of the Weasley's: Probable. There's just so many of them. And it 
would give us a Deeply Moving Picture of Family Grief.

Book 5 death of any Weasley family member: 10 to 1. By Book 7: 
Betting only accepted on *which* Weasley family member it will be.


Mrs Weasley: Well, it would certainly be difficult to write. And 
difficult to read. And difficult for the entire Weasley family to 
get over. And difficult for Harry to get over. And difficult for 
Errol the owl to get over. And difficult for the ghoul in the attic 
to get over 

Book 5: 25 to 1. By Book 7: 5 to 1.

Mr Weasley: He did hit Lucius Malfoy in the eye with an Encyclopedia 
of Toadstools [CoS, Ch.4]. Like his sons, this is rather high on the 
list of `101 things NOT to do to an Evil Overlord's Lieutenant if 
you want to live'. His death would be a good motive for 
OverAmbitious!Percy to realise How Evil The DE's Really Are. And it 
wouldn't be as difficult for everyone as Mrs Weasley's death would 
be.
Book 5: 10 to 1. By Book 7: Even money.


Bill Weasley: Bill is cool. Bill is a Curse Breaker. See Bill break 
curses. Bill wants to fight Voldemort. Look, there is a Grim on 
Bill's shoulder. Why is it there?
Book 5: 20 to 1. By Book 7: Even money.

Charlie: Works with dragons, which is flipping dangerous anyway – 
doesn't *need* Voldemort to get himself killed. Also has not had 
much `screen time' by Book 4 and it's unlikely JKR will pull 
a `Cedric' on us twice.
Book 5: 50 to 1 By Book 7: 2 to 1.

Percy Weasley: More likely to give us a picture of Ambition Versus 
Morality And Family Loyalty as he has to decide whether to stick his 
head in the sand like Fudge, or support the rest of his family and 
ruin his career.
Book 5: 1000 to 1. By Book 7: 10 to 1
Joins the DE's (with possible later repentence): 10 to 1. Joins the 
DE's by Book 7: 3 to 1.

Gred and Forge Weasley: Back to `kill the spare' Rowling again. 

Also they hit Voldemort with a few well aimed snowballs, which is 
VERY high on the `101 things NOT to do to an Evil Overlord if you 
want to live' list.
Book 5: 5 to 1. By Book 7: 2 to 1.


Ginny: Too sweet. Besides, surely JKR exorcised her sadistic 
tendencies. towards Ginny by the end of CoS?
Book 5: 200 to 1. By Book 7: 50 to 1.


Ron: More likely to Betray Harry Then Repent than actually get 
killed. Symbolic hints are being dropped all over the place. 
Interestingly, when Harry read Ron's tea leaves he gave his future 
as 'trials and suffering' followed by 'great happiness' (GoF UK 
hardback, p. 81).
Book 5: 1000 to 1. By Book 7: 20 to 1. 

Hermoine: Would be a bit suicidal, since she's JKR's alter-ego. 
However, her tendency to forget she's a witch under stress may lead 
her into serious problems. And JKR keeps getting noticeably upset 
that no-one ever asks `Please don't kill Hermione.'
Book 5: 1000 to 1. By Book 7: 20 to 1.
Becomes full time political campaigner for rights of oppressed 
species on graduation: 3 to 1.


Harry: Could only be more doomed if he walked under a ladder while 
simultaneously waving at the Headless Horseman. But he may survive 
his death.
Book 5: Are you mad? Do you think Books 6 and 7 have even the 
*slightest* possibility of being called `The Ghost of Harry Potter 
and
?'
Book 7: Even money. Side bets that Harry will survive getting killed 
will be accepted at 3 to 2 on.



And finally:
Voldemort.  Well, what do YOU think?

Pip!Squeak