Doomed, they're doomed! [Revised and expanded]

[Caius Marcius]

No: HPFGUIDX 46140

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "bluesqueak" <pipdowns at e...> wrote:
> 
> Based on a post made back in June: 
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/39297
> 
> However, now revised, updated with people's suggestions and with 
> estimated odds for death in Book 5 or death by Book 7.
> 
> [Terminology: The British way of saying ` odds 100 to 1' (or 
> whatever) is the same thing as ` a bet of 1 Galleon gets you 100 
> Galleons (plus stake back)if you win'. `Even money' means 1 to 1.]
> 
> Note: Wagers of Thirty Seven Galleons, fifteen Sickles, three Knuts 
> and a fake wand will be regarded with deep suspicion.
> 

In this other definitive survey, you've left off a couple of major 
players: Dobby and Winky.

JKR had earlier said that a "fan" of Harry will die in Book Five, and 
not even Colin Creevey could outdo Dobby in that department. Also, 
something has got to happen to galvinize the house-elves into some 
kind of concerted movement toward a greater freedom and independence.
What better than the ghastly death of one of their own?

One problem: the Death of Dobby doesn't seem that it would be 
especially hard to write. Dobby is a tad too pathetic to really merit 
the four-hankie Requiem treatment that JKR seems to be priming us 
for.  Still, I would rate him as no better than even money to survive 
Book Five, no bets after that.

Winky's death is much less likely. She provides minor comic relief, 
but her character has a chance to grow as opportunities for elfish 
liberty arise. So I'd rate her 100 to 1 in Book Five, 20 to 1 for 
Book Seven  

I agree with your take on Draco's death. To paraphrase Wilde on 
Dickens, it will be a hard-hearted HP fan who will read the death of 
Draco Malfoy without laughing.

   - CMC