Catching up: MAGIC DISHWASHER

[marinafrants]

No: HPFGUIDX 45321

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "Grey Wolf" <greywolf1 at j...> wrote:
> I said:
> > > Sirius accepts that. Dumbledore has a little chat with him, in
> > > which I expect many things got explained. The thing he dislikes 
> > > most of his circunstance, I think, is not being able to take
Harry 
> > > with him, but that would've been impossible anyway, since Harry
is 
> > > taken to the Dursleys for protection. Notice that, at no point 
> > > (except, as with Snape, when shaking hands with him) does Sirius 
> > > express any sort of disconfort about his circunstance. He
> > >understands the necessity of it, and accepts his place in the
plans.
> 
> Marina answered: 
> > He may accept it after the fact (what choice does he have,
anyway?),
> > but no one consulted him before the fact.
> 
> Before that, Sirius was a suspected murderer. I don't think
Dumbledore 
> was all that sure of Sirius inocence before the SS 

Once Dumbledore knew that Wormtail was alive, he knew there was, at
the very least, a very high chance that Sirius was innocent.  And MD,
if I recall correctly, posits that Dumbledore knew about Wormtail by
the time he sent Snape to the Shrieking Shack.  Given what Sirius had
suffered in the previous 13 years, the probability of his innocence
was certainly high enough to merit consideration of his rights.


> You seem to believe that Dumbledore is omnipotent, Marina, which is 
> obviously not the case. 

No, I do not believe Dumbledore is omnipotent.  I believe that *if*
Dumbledore was capable of the kind of knowledge, predictive ability
and power needed to carry out MD's master plan, then he would also be
capable of doing a better job of controlling the obvious consequences
of that plan.  I do not believe that Dumbledore has such capabilites,
therefore I do not believe there is a master plan.

> Voldemort *will* come back, sooner or later. 
> Because he is *immortal* while in Vapour form. From the point of
view 
> of eternity, sooner or later, he would come back. And sincerely, it 
> doesn't even look such a especially difficult thing to do. If Harry 
> were more protected, then Voldemort would only have to use any other 
> wizard, get the flesh of any other servant and find the ashes of his 
> father - or even of his mother, or grandparents, or even Salazar's,
for 
> all we know and, voilá!, he's back when no-one expects him or even 
> remembers him.

I repeat my original objection -- if any old enemy and any old servant
will do, then why the need for letting Wormtail escape?  I don't buy
the "life debt" explanation, since we've seen nothing to indicate that
a life debt is a predictable or a controllable phenomenon, or that it
can be anything more than a minor factor in such a large conflict. 
James Potter was owed a life debt by someone in Voldemort's inner
circle, someone a hell of a lot more impressive than Wormtail, and it
did James no good whatsoever.


> > And here's another thought -- having arranged for Wormtail's
escape,
> > Dumbledore must know that Voldemort will want to try for the
potion
> > as soon as possible, which means that Voldemort will be redoubling
> > his efforts to go after Harry.  If the re-embodiment is not to
happen
> > too soon, security around Harry must be tighter than ever before.  
> > So, knowing this urgent need for heightened security, what does
> > Dumbledore do?  He holds a Triwizard Tournament, filling Hogwarts
> > with hundreds of strangers, including an entire Durmstrang
delegation
> > of Dark Arts students headed by a known Death Eater.  Real
tactical
> > genius at work there.
> 
> You forget to mention that he gets the best Auror ever to watch over 
> Harry and the rest of the people involved. 

The best Auror ever is still only one man (and an old man with a
missing leg, at that).  I have no doubt that in an "ordinary" school
year, the real Moody would've been more than equal to the job of
keeping Harry safe.  But GoF was far from an ordinary year, even by
Harry's standards.  From the security standpoint, it was a logistical
nightmare of epic proportions.  No one man, however brilliant, could
be counted on to manage it.  Which is why I think that Dumbledore
would not have held it if he had strong reason to believe that
Voldemort was getting set to launch a major new offensive.  Remember,
under my "face value" reading of the text, Voldemort has not been
heard from since the end of PS/SS -- over two years -- so it would not
be unreasonable for Dumbledore to believe that it would be okay to
hold the Tournament.

Marina
rusalka at ix.netcom.com