Who's going to betray the Order?

[B Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 75847

Lots of scope for speculation here. Pick your favourite for doing the 
dirty! But when you do, ask yourself - what is their motivation?

In the series so far betrayal has been a major device, but with few 
betrayals.
Pettigrew claimed he was in fear for his life, which seems a bit weak 
to me. He was a member of the Order, from which he could have claimed 
protection. He didn't. He was also under the eye and within range of 
Dumbledores Legilimancy, yet he passed information to the enemy for a 
year before the Godrics Hollow incident without detection. Is this 
likely? Now I'm a dyed in the wool sceptic. I refuse to believe that DD 
was not aware of Pettigrews actions. In an intelligence war, 
disinformation is a valid weapon. It is quite possible that DD was 
using him as a conduit for information that DD wanted Voldemort to have.

Snape also switched sides; why, we're not certain. Voldy was on an 
upward curve, two years before his downfall. It was possible he could 
win, but Snape left. No credible motive is mentioned in canon, but I 
firmly believe it was not a matter of principle. It was personal.

Percy too has committed a minor form of betrayal, but for him it was a 
matter of principle - the primacy of the Ministry. Yes, he may benefit, 
but remember he did not stay with his family and inform on them and 
their friends, which was probably what Fudge had hoped for.

Now for the current crop of potential traitors.

Lots of votes for ESE!Ron. Either crossed in love or for love of money. 
Since JKR resolutely continues to treat her students as fairly 
realistic young teenagers rather than the cast of an adult sit-com, I 
don't see grand passion as a major plot device. Money? Credible two 
books back, but not now. Five of the seven children are off their 
hands, so Arthur and Mollys' finances must be a lot easier, and if he 
needs more then he can call on his entreprenurial brothers. Low odds on 
Ron.

Hermione would be a sneaky possibility with another author. How do you 
imagine she would react if Voldy arranged to free all the House Elves 
if she helped him? Would the principle of universal freedom over-ride 
any consideration for individuals? She could console herself with the 
thought of the greatest good for the greatest number. BUT, with this 
author, forget it. JKR has admitted that Hermione is the  
personification of herself when younger. Would she depict herself as a 
traitor? No.

Tonks gets mentioned. What's the motivation? A link to the Black 
family? Blames Harry for the death of her cousin? Not strong. I see her 
as an upcoming major casualty more than anything else. That clumsiness 
will be the death of her.


Lupin is in the frame for many. Well, maybe. But he's written as a 
victim character. The butt of unwarranted prejudice and dogged(!) by 
ill health. The victim loses sympathy when he joins the enemy; suddenly 
the prejudice becomes warranted  and strengthened. Scrub Lupin.

Molly? It all seems to be based on the Boggart scene. She's a mother, 
anxiety attacks are allowed when her family is in danger. No, she 
wouldn't trust any promise Voldy made. She's just reconciling herself 
to the fact that she's going to lose loved ones. Mothers know that the 
young always die in a war.

To my mind the character most likely to fall for manipulation by 
Voldemort is Harry. V has already got at him in a minor way, but have 
the protecting Occlumancy lessons continued? Apparently not.
He is mighty upset with DD, with the Order, with everybody. Nobody 
understands! I'm just a pawn! Nobody tells me anything!  The Order 
itself means very little to him. Some of the people in it, yes, they 
matter. But the Order as an organisation - they let Sirius die! they 
employ Snape! they treat me as a child! they don't *do* anything! The 
fall-out from teenage angst and an 'I'll show 'em!' spasm would have 
horrible consequences, even if it was short lived. And think of the 
BANG from that plot!

Don't forget Dumbledore. Would he sacrifice the Order if it meant the 
defeat of Voldemort? You bet he would. He's the only one who constantly 
keeps his eye on the big picture. What matters? Defeating Voldemort. 
How? Any way we can. Oh, it would be with regret and remorse, but with 
no hesitation.

None of this takes into consideration the other plot device. The 
*apparent* betrayal, a monster red herring, where we don't find out 
until afterwards that it was a set-up. Anyone could star in that one.

Oh, it's going to be a fun time now that the predictions for books 6 
and 7 have got going!

Kneasy