Prophets without Honour

[B Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 79362

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "jwcpgh" <jwcpgh at y...> wrote:
 > --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, B Arrowsmith
 > <arrowsmithbt at b...> wrote:
 > >
 > > Laura:  (clipped)
 > >
 >  if in fact the prophecy is a red herring, why did JKR spend so
 >>much time on it? >
 > > Kneasy again:  (clipped)
 >
 > > Are you a film buff? Remember the concept of the McGuffin?
 > > I see DD as the Ultimate Pragmatist; not evil but ready to grit his
 > > teeth and do the necessary, even if it requires casualties on the
 > side of good.
 > > What we don't know is whether DD is also being manipulated by JKR.
 > >Is the prophecy valid? Can we trust Trelawney to turn out a real,
 > > complete, accurate prophesy? I suspect not. That's the way the
 > >canon leans in its  treatment of Divination. But taking that line
 > >complicates things enormously. Who can be trusted? Either, (if so,
 >>which?) both, or neither? Does it matter in the scheme of things or
 >>will it turn out to be the McGuffin? We'll probably find out sooner or
 >>later, but meanwhile it's teeth-gnashing time.
 > >
 > >
 > Laura again: (clipped)
 >
 > Well, I suppose the prophecy could be a Mcguffin, except that usually
 > those are used to kick-start a story (if I recall my film classes
 > correctly).  started.  In this case, it's a bit late in the day to 
think of the
 > prophecy as getting the story rolling-it's already accelerating at a
 > dangerous rate. <g>
 >
 > The thing that puzzles me about this prophecy plotline is that DD has
 > deduced everything that LV is likely to do well in advance of his
 > actual actions.  DD knows that LV wants the prophecy.  He knows that
 > LV will discover that only he or Harry can get it.  He knows that LV
 > will soon figure out that he can manipulate Harry's mind.  But he
 > also knows that the prophecy isn't reliable.  And he knows that
 > whether or not LV learns the rest of it, his actions will be the same-
 > to try to eliminate Harry.  Yet he lets the whole catastrophe play
 > out.
 > But instead, DD acts as though this prophecy is truly significant
 > (i.e., in the discussion he has with Harry at the end of OoP).
 > That's what I don't understand.  Usually everyone in the story is
 > taken in by a Mcguffin.  Here, DD seems to be perfectly aware that
 > it's a fraud-but he lets everyone else think differently.
 >
 > I don't agree completely that DD is ultimately a pragmatist.  If that
 > were the case, he would have clued Harry in a long time ago, without
 > worrying overmuch about the effects on Harry.  Instead, he confesses
 > that he chose to protect Harry against his better judgement.  (And of
 > course, the protection completely backfires, killing Sirius and
 > further traumatizing Harry.)  I can't understand it.  It all could
 > have been avoided so easily...

Film classes? How life has changed. I became addicted to films at
the Saturday morning matinee - Flash Gordon, Hopalong Cassidy,
I feel deprived!
You're right that McGuffins usually kick things off, though there are
stories where their equivalent can turn up half-way through (Holy
Grail in Arthurian legend; not a terrific example, I admit). But in this
series, it's possible to argue that the prophesy has been there from
the beginning -  why else Godrics Hollow? It's just that the readers
were gradually led  to it instead of having it dumped in their laps in
chap.1.
DD may well have deduced what Voldy planned, even to the extent
of using the PS//SS as bait in book one. But knowing V's  aims does
not reveal his means. I think he was a bit miffed by the Portkey!Cup.
He could not have foreseen the events in the graveyard and the
method of Harry's escape. He's in the game of reacting to  events.
The Order doesn't seem to do much, a bit of recruitment here, a
spot of guarding there, all to little effect. V didn't get the prophesy,
in the Ministry but DD could not have planned the means of his
eventual failure.

What does  V want? We're told  world domination-  a likely story.
He definitely hasn't read the Evil Overlord List of Rules. He wants
the prophecy - why? What does he think it says? He can't believe
it gives him a blueprint for victory; maybe a hint or two but not
anything critical beyond the fact that there's a little toe-rag to be
eliminated before he can polish his throne and call  for the
interior decorators. That, he already knows. It was in the first
line that the eaves-dropper caught. He wants to get Harry out of
the way. OK. But according to Sturgeons Second Law, there's
more ways to futter a cat than to stuff  its head in a sea-boot.
He's been constantly thwarted by Harry being lucky. DD is still
in the game for the same reason. He lets Harry off the leash and
Harry is immediately in deep trouble - again! Will DD never learn?

A while ago I theorised that DD was using Harry as bait. Let him
wander off, he's bound to attract Voldy, bring him out into the open
and - zap! Gotcha! But DD doesn't take his chances. In the MoM,
not only does V get away, but he rescues his chief hench-witch
too. Not what one would expect from the most powerful wizard in
the world.  DD seems remarkably ineffectual except when it  comes
to words, those he's good at. It's no good saying that he's giving
Harry on-the-job training, four times Harry has met Voldy!Riddle
and he should have been toast every  time.  Very like saying
"Just play with this nitroglycerine and one day you'll be an expert."
But DD carries on in his own sweet way, "Oh, and now I'll tell you
what it's all about." The prophecy.
No it isn't. The prophecy is a minor distraction. Even if it is
complete, it lets Harry know that V is after him, something I'm sure
he'd guessed already. He's not  concerned with beating Voldy,
he's much more interested in surviving, and he's having enough
trouble doing that already, thank you very much. It tells  him that
there'll be a showdown, High Noon in Hogsmeade. You mean the
previous four times don't count? No, DD is using the prophecy to
justify his own agenda. Wish I knew what it is.

Kneasy