Help! The twins and the bet

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 87774

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "casmir2012" <casmir2012 at y...>
wrote:
> Derek wrote:
> > We also have no canon anywhere else suggesting 
> > that the Twins are such compulsive gamblers that 
> > they would put every scrap of money they had 
> > in the world into a single bet.
> 


> Casmir:
> ....  Two poor boys with a big dream.  A few gold pieces with which
> to buy the dream.  The money they had was not enough to start 
> anything; so perhaps they saw it more as the price of a hope, an all
>  or nothing  attitude on a what they felt was a good bet.


bboy_mn:


While I agree with what you said, let's not take it too far. This
isn't the same as buying lottery tickets. This is a bet that can be
analyzed, and a logical and reasonable choice can be made; it isn't
random chance. If you bet on the Chicago Cub winning the World Series,
you are betting on a miracle. If you bet on the New York Yankees, you
are making making a wager with good odds.

Although I may be stetching it a bit, Krum is the best Quidditch
player in the world and undoubtedly the best Seeker in the world. On
the other hand, Ireland has the best team in the world. The logical
analysis of that is that the best team is going to score high, and the
best Seeker is going to get the Snitch or die trying.

Conclusion; the best team in the world will win; the best Seeker in
the world will get the Snitch. That's not a random chance bet; that is
a bet with a high likelihood of a positive outcome. Not a sure thing,
but very reasonable and very possible.

Just a thought.

bboy_mn