Washing dishes and powders

[bluesqueak <pipdowns@etchells0.demon.co.uk>]

No: HPFGUIDX 52099



  ------- Forwarded message follows -------

Tom:
>  The MDDT wrote:
"> As if being part of the old crowd means anything. Black, an 
> accused murderer, is also a part of the 'old crowd' so I am sure 
> the 'old crowd' has their problems."

> I reply:
> Sirius Black is not canonically part of the "old crowd." That is an
> inference. IMHO, a decent one, but an inference nonetheless.


OK, Tom, you've got me. No argument's possible after that, really. I 
am not allowed to infer anything from canon. Not even that Sirius 
Black is one of the old crowd.

 Dumbledore gives Sirius a list of names to contact. Lupin, Figg and 
Fletcher. He calls these three 'the old crowd'. One of them (Lupin) 
was canonically Sirius's friend. Sirius leaves the room 8 lines 
later. [Reference to canon: GoF UK hardback, Ch36, pp. 618-619]

He does not ask Dumbledore how or where to contact any of those 
people. He does not ask what the 'old crowd' is.

According to my dictionary, 'inference' means "a conclusion reached 
on the basis of evidence and reasoning".

If you don't wish me to make the kind of inference I make above, 
then I *do* have to withdraw the DISHWASHER. In its entirety.

I also have to withdraw every other post I have ever made.

However, I note that your very well argued theory for Agent Lupin 
*does* infer (and I quote from 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/52064 )

> IMO the text, i.e. Lupin's indisputably reasonable and calm stance
> in the Shrieking Shack is sufficient canon to go on if one wants to
> argue for an Agent!Lupin.

I would also refer you back to your excellent post on Voldemort and 
Grindlewald.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/50772

In it, you argue from canon
.....................
I think that there must be a connection between Voldemort and
Grindelwald that we haven't been made privy to, as of yet.

I'll submit that Voldemort must be the inheritor of Grindelwald's
legacy and work, that he left Hogwarts and searched for Grindelwald,
who must've had enough of a name in order for Dumbledore to search
him out. Riddle ultimately found him, if only for a brief period of
time before Dumbledore defeated him (Grindelwald.)
.................

Since the above appears nowhere in canon, and there is nowhere in 
canon that Dumbledore actually says 'Lupin was an agent for me in 
the Shack' then you are making inferences. You are reasoning from 
the evidence.

So it appears that you are happy to make inferences. You simply 
don't want me to make inferences.


**Snape is never angry except in PoA.**

Well, I did say PoA. As in the whole of the book, not just the 
Shrieking Shack Scene. But Marina has pointed out that Snape (while 
he doesn't actually lose it) is pretty darn furious in GoF, so I'll 
concede that point.

>Tom:
> The MDDT wrote:
>"Dumbledore would not have told him his plans about the night, so
> Snape would have been in the dark on that."

>I [Tom] reply:
>Whoa! Did I miss something massive in MD? Where in MD does it 
>suggest
>that Dumbledore orchestrated, or controlled in any way, Sirius
>Black's behavior on the night of the Shrieking Shack?

No, you didn't miss something massive. Just the line following the 
sentence you quote. And the line preceding the sentence you quote. 
Both of which refer to Lupin, not Black. Where did you get the idea 
we were referring to Sirius Black? 

Dumbledore didn't, for example, control the precise date of the 
Shrieking Shack. But an agent Snape should have known to keep his 
nose out of Lupin's business on that night of the Shrieking Shack. 
Or, for that matter, on any other night. Unless Agent!Lupin screamed 
for help, of course :-)

I agree with you entirely; I don't think Dumbledore has the 
slightest control over Sirius Black until after he talks to him in 
Chapter 21 of PoA. 

This is another of my inferences, btw. Canonically, Dumbledore 
corresponds with Sirius in GoF, but the first canonical time Sirius 
actually takes his orders is in Chapter 36 of GoF.


**Expelliarmus**

Your argument

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
At all other times, the use of 'expelliarmus' on a wizard results in
the removal of an object from the wizard's hand. It does not, most of
the time, result in a knock-out. Pip's 39662 posits: "This spell does
knock the wizard off their feet."

That is not what 'expelliarmus' does.

Even when Snape (a very powerful wizard, as the MD analysis proves)
uses 'expelliarmus' on Lockhart (probably the biggest 'dunderhead'
wizard we can find in the series,) he doesn't knock Lockhart out.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Canon: CoS, Ch. 11, p. 142 UK paperback

"Lockhart was blasted off his feet: he flew backwards off the stage, 
smashed into the wall, and slid down it to sprawl on the floor."

So, in canon, knocking someone off their feet (and into a wall) is 
*exactly* what expelliarmus is known to do. The spell's *intent* is 
to remove the wand from a wizard. The spell's *side effect* is to 
knock the wizard off their feet. As you point out, the Shrieking 
Shack is the *second* time a wizard has been knocked off their feet 
in by Expelliarmus in canon.

If it's not believable to you, then it's not believable.

The problem I have with arguing that it's not *believable* that it 
could happen is that:

a) it did happen. Snape was canonically knocked out.
b) a wizard is seen to be knocked off their feet by the expelliarmus 
spell previously in canon. Further, he hit a wall.
c) we're talking about a spell cast by the child who has previously 
fought a troll to a standstill (with help) and killed a basilisk? 
(PS/SS and CoS)

The thing in this scene I find *unbelievable* is that all three 
children manage to beat Snape to the draw. Canonically, he's 
described as knowing something about duelling (CoS, Ch.11,pp. 142 - 
146 UK paperback). He's already got his wand up, and doesn't have to 
draw it.

Actually, I could manage to believe Harry could do it. He is fast, 
he is angry, and it's canon that his abilities are exceptional (the 
Patronus that dispels hundreds of Dementors). It's 
Hermione-with-the-tendency-to-forget-she's-a-witch and 
Ron-with-the-broken-leg that make me wonder. Just how fast are 
*they*?
*********************************************************************

Your major points: You've withdrawn point one and replaced it with 
the argument that Lupin's wolfsbane potion could have been taken 
previously in the week, and still been effective.

It's arguable. There's no canon against it, and I can hardly 
complain about that:-)

Apart from the point that the Potions Master Snape thought it worth 
taking a gobletful of the canonically 'particularly complex' 
Wolfsbane potion along to Lupin's office that night. Complexity 
reference is PoA, UK hardback, p.118, Ch.8. In addition, on the same 
page to this reference, Lupin remarks that he 'probably' needs 
another dose the following night.

**Lupin can act a *werewolf***


http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/39273
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/39286
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/39335

Are part of the background for my feeling that Snape is acting, 
though it was actually a very long, complex discussion that has been 
repeated on this list several times. Briefly, his behaviour when he 
knows Harry is watching is not the same as his behaviour when he 
doesn't think Harry is watching. Not just my inference; it's 
canonical enough that several people have independently posted this 
observation on list.


Further canon. Snape was a spy on Lord Voldemort. [GoF UK hardback, 
p. 513, Ch. 30].

A spy is described in the Sphinx's riddle in GoF.

"Think of a person that lives in disguise
who deals in secrets and tells naught but lies." [GoF Ch. 31, p. 546]

('a person who lives in disguise and tells naught but lies' is also 
a pretty good description of an actor at work, btw.)

I can't recall any canon evidence for Lupin ever being a spy. Or for 
his ability to control himself in full (non-potioned) werewolf form. 
You seem to be simply making an assumption, where you are reasoning 
from no evidence, rather than an inference.

**Lupin genuinely hated Pettigrew and was quite willing to kill him**

Tom:
>I reply:
>Remus Lupin has very real and tangible reasons for wanting to kill
>Peter Pettigrew.

Ah, that's ok then. I was worried for a moment there. I thought poor 
Agent!Lupin was going to be left with egg on his face when he and 
Sirius pointed their wands at Pettigrew and Harry *didn't* leap in 
front of him to save his life. Y'know, that embarrassing pause where 
Lupin has to announce that he *doesn't* want to kill Pettigrew after 
all? And could somebody do something?

Given that Dumbledore, in the Dishwasher argument, needs the loyal 
servant of Voldemort to create the flawed potion, I had thought that 
Lupin would want to keep Pettigrew alive if at all possible, for as 
long as it took for Harry to do something. 

But Lupin doesn't want to keep Pettigrew alive, so that's ok. He can 
afford to force a showdown that will kill Pettigrew in 10 seconds if 
things go wrong.

Dumbledore's going to be a bit annoyed about his potion plan, but 
you can't have everything.

**Lupin's Plan**
Tom:
1) Assess the situation and discover the truth, and
2) Get all the information out in the open, so that
3) A well-informed Harry can get Pettigrew in a life-debt.

Right. Except that you've just argued against point 3 in the point 
above?

Either Lupin's is going to kill Pettigrew when he points his wand at 
him, or he isn't.

If he isn't, where is the life debt? If he is, where is Dumbledore's 
plan?

If the life debt is obtained by the fact that Sirius Black genuinely 
is going to kill Pettigrew, how is Lupin going to stop Black killing 
Pettigrew?


**Azkaban!Hagrid**

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tom:

if you believe that Spymaster!Dumbledore could not have
known that Sirius Black is innocent based on Azkaban!Hagrid, then you
will have to strike that premise from MD. Otherwise, since the MDDT
use it, the MDDT will, however begrudgingly, have to accept it here
as well. ;-)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ah. Yes. This is the problem with there being over 300 posts about 
MD. You can miss points. [I have - I haven't read them *all*] This 
one's been discussed before.

Hagrid, in Azkaban!Hagrid, knows that the DE's are blaming Pettigrew 
for the betrayal. This suggests another possibility than 'Sirius was 
the Secret Keeper, so it must have been him'.

HOWEVER
[Warning: these aren't even inferences. They're hypothetical cases]

Dumbledore has also to consider the following hypothetical options:

Pettigrew betrayed the Potters. Because Sirius was also an Voldemort!
agent, but thought being the actual Secret Keeper/betrayer was 
too risky. He shoved it onto Pettigrew, another Voldemort!Agent. 
Then Voldemort got vapourised, and Pettigrew and Black fell out with 
each other.

Pettigrew *didn't* betray the Potters. The people in Azkaban think 
that because Voldy effectively told them Pettigrew was the spy. He 
suspected a spy in the DE ranks and wanted to make sure his best 
source on the Potter's couldn't be 'blown'. He did this by using as 
the codename for Sirius Black a nickname which would be recognised 
as Pettigrew's .

And so on. There are all sorts of possibilities for 'who betrayed 
the Potters'. The one certainty is that one or more of Lupin, 
Pettigrew and Black did it.


**Snape was driven by revenge**
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tom:
By DL's analysis,
there is *no* hidden agenda from Snape. He is acting *only* for the
reason that we're given ostensibly in the text: REVENGE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Why didn't he take it then?

Sorry, Tom, but I keep missing this bit.

Canonically, Snape *talks* a good fight. He screams about revenge. 
He blows his top. He threatens to feed Lupin and Black to the 
Dementors. [PoA, Ch. 19, p.263 to 265]

Canonically, however his actions when left alone on the Hogwarts 
grounds with no known witnesses and four unconscious bodies is to 
*not* call the Dementors. 

His precise canonical action is to conjure up four stretchers, and 
carry everyone back to Hogwarts. [PoA, Ch. 21 p.301]

He does force Lupin's resignation the next day.

But the only canon for Snape's motives comes from Lupin. [PoA p. 309 
Ch. 22] Lupin's making a reasonable inference of course; Snape 
doesn't like him. 

But there's another reasonable inference. That Lupin, on the night 
of the Shack, was *yet again* wandering around in his unsafe 
werewolf form. That Lupin could have bitten anyone on the grounds 
that night. That the man simply isn't *safe* to have as a teacher at 
Hogwarts.

You might be interested in Hagrid's dialogue about the resignation. 
It's on Ch.22, p.308 PoA (UK hardback).

**Observations**

You say:
>I was to realize one very
>important point - they didn't use canon once to support their
>objections or observations.

In a quick re-read I counted twelve references to canon in #51925. 
Do you need page and Chapter references in future? Or would you 
prefer quotation marks around any canon?

Tom:
>I would be quite convinced that
> you were using that sardonic "kick-around" bit simply to get my 
goat.

'Kick around' . Ah, yes, I can see where you got that impression. It 
can mean 'to handle roughly'. Sorry, Tom. In British slang a kick-
around is also a friendly, informal game. It's quite often used as a 
metaphor: "let's kick some ideas around." It doesn't mean any 
disrespect to the ideas.

Yours

Pip!Squeak