[HPforGrownups] Re: Short Predictions for Book 5-variant

Fri Jan 24 15:00:24 UTC 2003

No: HPFGUIDX 50488

JOdel wrote:

>>HOWever... I'm sure that Gunnings *employs* acountants. And the Dursleys' 
style of living, is high enough that either Dursley is very high up on the 
corporate ladder, or he could be cooking the books. And we can now all 
confidently expect that it's Molly's-second-cousin-the-acountant who 
discovers this. And gets Vernon sacked.>>

You know, I'm pretty sure that Vernon can't be sacked because he's the director of his own firm. I know it's not said in canon that he owns it, but I kinda get that impression.

>>My own modest predictions (Preliminary. Pick any seven);

Deaths;
1.We will see no more than one major character death happening "on stage" if 
that.>>

Dunno. Maybe. I'd be very traumatized if more than one major character died on stage. I always hated Shakespearian endings.

>>2.We *may* hear of an additional major character death that has taken place 
outside Hogwarts. If no major character death happens onstage, we will 
*certainly* hear of one having happened outside.>>

Oh yeah. JKR *said* someone would die.

>>3.There will be no more than 6 character deaths, total, to which we are given 
names. Probably fewer, and some may be the kind of characters we have never 
actually met (a la Jorkins). <<

Out of hat hat did you pull that number? <g>

>>4. My picks for major charater death in book five are Dumbledore OR Lupin OR 
Hagrid (An owl OR a cat OR a toad). <<

Nothing new here. <g>

>>Reasoning for these picks;
4a. Dumbledore -- because the established pattern of this sort of coming of 
age quest demands it. If not in book five then book six. Note: Dumbledore 
WILL be removed from the effective playing board by the beginning of book 7. 
Either through death or by some other method. (Locked inside an oak tree?) 
This may not be his final word on the subject however. >>

Yes, I think he'll die. But do you think he might return to Harry after his death a la Obi-Wan Kenobi?

>>4b. Lupin -- as the "sacrificial wolf". If he goes out at any point in the 
series, whenever it takes place, his death will buy the Forces of Light 
something they desparately need. That he suffers from a curse for which there 
is no cure marks him as "doomed" in the underlying pattern of this kind of 
quest. And he knows it. If he goes it will be voluntarily and knowingly.>>

Yes, Lupin is indeed doomed. Maybe he'll sacrifice himself to compensate the wrong that he thinks he'd done when he was at Hogwarts?

<<4c. Hagrid -- out of the pure fecklessness of being Hagrid. Hagrid's death, 
whenever it happens will be gratuitous and horrible and probably readily 
avoidable if things had been managed properly. They won't be and it will 
hammer home the object lesson of just what is at stake. For this reason I 
think it more likely to take place in book six than in book five. (I do not 
really think that Hagrid is likely to die before Dumbledore, but Rowling may 
surprise me. This particular switch in probability wouldn't be all that 
difficult to pull off.)>>

I see Hagrid's death as a Porthos-like death, sacrificing himself in order to save others in an instance of an immediate danger. However, it's entirely possible the giants kill him, or something like that.

>>5. Dark Horse major character death; The new DADA treacher. This time the 
character is fighting on the right side, at least. >>

Well, we don't know that, do we? <eg> However, I see no reason why the DADA jinx should discontinue, so we might as well expect her to die.

>>6. REALLY Dark Horse character death; Ginny pays off her life debt. (Frankly, 
I think if this happens it will be either book 6 or 7.) >>

You know, I thought about this Ginny life-debt thing and realized that it contradicted my own life-debt theory (that the rescuer must be particularly generous and overcome many doubts when saving another wizard's life). Of course, that was just my theory, and it relies on only circumstantial evidence, but I offered it in reply to Pippin's life-debt theory. So, maybe she doesn't have a life-debt.

>>7. Secondary character deaths; Possible, even likely. The uncertanty is 
whether these will be people we already know or ones we meet in book 5. Could 
be either, but I would hazard that we won't see the death of more than two 
people that we have already actually met.>>

Voldemort is back - *people are going to start dying.* Of course, it would be evil of JKR to kill off more than two characters we know.

>>8. Other deaths; We may actually see a DE taken out this time. (Surely it 
hasn't escaped everyone's notice that so far the only actual death on the 
other side has been Volemort's own victim, Quirrell. Crouch Jr. is not dead.)>>

I hope so.

>>9. One of the named animals may be killed, but I tend to doubt it. Book 6 
seems somehow more likely for this.>>

Why?

>>10. There is the outside posssibility that some catastrophic "accident" will 
take place offstage (read about it in the Daily Prophet) which accounts for 
several unnamed deaths. Since it is all to Voldemort's advantage that the WW 
not believe that he is actually back yet, the Dark mark will not be floating 
over the scene of the crime and no one will readily believe that the DEs are 
responsible. This scenario is no more than 50% likely.>>

I think JKR might save catastrophies for later, as she's got 2 more books to go.

>>Other non-fatal events;

12. Snape's behavior will be such as to completely destroy any secure 
feelings the kids or the reader may be harboring as to where his real 
loyalties lie.>>

I, OTOH, think that we will find out some very good things about Snape, and maybe see a marked change in his behavior towards Harry. All IMHO of course.

>>13. No one will know whose side Percy is really on, either.>>

I think there are two possibilities here. One is that Percy will sort out his loyalties in OoP, and another is that there will be a subplot based on Percy's tragedy in life - how he can't choose between his family and his career. He obviously loves his family - look at what he does after Task 2.

>>14. Harry will lose yet another "legacy" advantage he believes he has. In 
return, he will either gain or learn about one that he has not ever 
considered.>>

What advantage is that? 

The other legacy is his Gryffindor roots. I honestly think that he is Godric's descendant.

>>15. Ron will continue to act like an insensitive git for much of the book, 
but will manage do something to save the day that no one else could have 
pulled off. Or pulled off as well. He may begin to get some glimmering of his 
"specialty" in this book. If not, in book 6.>>

I really can't say "*continue to act like an insensitive got," as I am of the opinion that Ron's gitness pretty much ended after the Yule Brawl, and he's been controlling himself ever since. He really calms down towards the end of the book. He even asks Krum for an autograph!

As for his specialty, I agree that we must find out something.

>>16. Hermione will discover that she has made a serious blunder and have to 
pick up the pieces and recover lost ground.>>

It would be an interesting plot twist, if I may use the word, but that's just speculation, really.

>>17. We may *finally* get some idea of just what Ginny's personality *is*.

18. We can HOPE that we will finally get some idea of what Lily's personality 
was. (Promises, promises...)>>

Yeah, I hope so too. Lily's character is a mystery to everyone, although I think we do have some idea of Ginny's character.

>>19. Harry will end up having to give evidence of something at the MoM.>>

Oh yes, if Fudge doesn't choose to ignore everything that has happened.

>>20. The Twins will provide distraction from some important detail relating to 
somethig that will, consequently, take us by surprise.>>

Don't they always? <g> That's like saying that the phrase "Snape's lip curled" will be in the book.

>>21. Some small piece of information will come from a ghost. <snip>>>

Is it just a rumour, or do we have definite information that we'll find out much more about ghosts than we know already?

I'd be very interested why the Bloody Baron is bloody.

>>22. *Something* in the book will hark back to PS/SS. Possibly parselmouth, 
possibly Flamel, possibly something else altogether.>>

I dunno, but something will definitely hark back to CoS. I wonder what that is. Parseltongue, probably.

>>23. The chief public conflict of this book will be related to getting the MoM 
to admit that Voldemort really is back. The book will end with the MoM 
finally capitulating to the reality of this information. Most likely cause 
for this capitulation will be the unequivocal news of the death of Albus 
Dumbledore defending the school. If this happens, the Dark Mark *will* be 
invoked over it. Somehow Cornelius Fudge managed to survive any attempts to 
dislodge him from office. It will become evident to Dumbledore's organization 
that Voldemort has Fudge firmly in his pocket. I'm not certain whether it 
will be clear whether he is a knowing collaborator, however.>>

Well, FRUITLESS, I say (is that the right acronym?). I however, don't think the school will be attacked.

>>24. Harry will escape some plot to kill or capture him, but this one will not 
be so sucessful as the last one. He takes less personal damage than he did in 
the graveyard.>>

He does that in all the books, doesn't he? And I don't see how he can take more personal damage than in the graveyard, except that he may die. Which won't happen until the end of Book 7, if at all.

>>25. I doubt that Pettigrew will be much on stage. I think the Marauders' 
unfinished business may be the central conflict of book 6.>>

I, too, think that the MWPP conflict will be dealt with at some point in the series, but I can't say in which book. I also think that we might find out more about the Prank and how exactly Sirius apologized to Lupin.

Regards,
Maria

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