Short Predictions for Book 5-variant

[jodel at aol.com]

No: HPFGUIDX 50478

>>David, who thinks it's more plausible that Harry's related (only by 
marriage) to *Ron*, through the Weasley's Muggle accountant relative, Vernon 
Dursley, thus ensuring Harry, his future partner (if any) and the Dursleys 
are *all* part of OBHWF.<<

No, no, Much too simple. Besides Vernon Dursley isn't an accountant. 

HOWever... I'm sure that Gunnings *employs* acountants. And the Dursleys' 
style of living, is high enough that either Dursley is very high up on the 
corporate ladder, or he could be cooking the books. And we can now all 
confidently expect that it's Molly's-second-cousin-the-acountant who 
discovers this. And gets Vernon sacked.

My own modest predictions (Preliminary. Pick any seven);

Deaths;
1.We will see no more than one major character death happening "on stage" if 
that.

2.We *may* hear of an additional major character death that has taken place 
outside Hogwarts. If no major character death happens onstage, we will 
*certainly* hear of one having happened outside.

3.There will be no more than 6 character deaths, total, to which we are given 
names. Probably fewer, and some may be the kind of characters we have never 
actually met (a la Jorkins). 

4. My picks for major charater death in book five are Dumbledore OR Lupin OR 
Hagrid (An owl OR a cat OR a toad). 

Reasoning for these picks;
4a. Dumbledore -- because the established pattern of this sort of coming of 
age quest demands it. If not in book five then book six. Note: Dumbledore 
WILL be removed from the effective playing board by the beginning of book 7. 
Either through death or by some other method. (Locked inside an oak tree?) 
This may not be his final word on the subject however. 

4b. Lupin -- as the "sacrificial wolf". If he goes out at any point in the 
series, whenever it takes place, his death will buy the Forces of Light 
something they desparately need. That he suffers from a curse for which there 
is no cure marks him as "doomed" in the underlying pattern of this kind of 
quest. And he knows it. If he goes it will be voluntarily and knowingly.

4c. Hagrid -- out of the pure fecklessness of being Hagrid. Hagrid's death, 
whenever it happens will be gratuitous and horrible and probably readily 
avoidable if things had been managed properly. They won't be and it will 
hammer home the object lesson of just what is at stake. For this reason I 
think it more likely to take place in book six than in book five. (I do not 
really think that Hagrid is likely to die before Dumbledore, but Rowling may 
surprise me. This particular switch in probability wouldn't be all that 
difficult to pull off.)

5. Dark Horse major character death; The new DADA treacher. This time the 
character is fighting on the right side, at least. 

6. REALLY Dark Horse character death; Ginny pays off her life debt. (Frankly, 
I think if this happens it will be either book 6 or 7.) 

7. Secondary character deaths; Possible, even likely. The uncertanty is 
whether these will be people we already know or ones we meet in book 5. Could 
be either, but I would hazard that we won't see the death of more than two 
people that we have already actually met.

8. Other deaths; We may actually see a DE taken out this time. (Surely it 
hasn't escaped everyone's notice that so far the only actual death on the 
other side has been Volemort's own victim, Quirrell. Crouch Jr. is not dead.)

9. One of the named animals may be killed, but I tend to doubt it. Book 6 
seems somehow more likely for this.

10. There is the outside posssibility that some catastrophic "accident" will 
take place offstage (read about it in the Daily Prophet) which accounts for 
several unnamed deaths. Since it is all to Voldemort's advantage that the WW 
not believe that he is actually back yet, the Dark mark will not be floating 
over the scene of the crime and no one will readily believe that the DEs are 
responsible. This scenario is no more than 50% likely.

Other non-fatal events;

11. Malfoy will manage to actually do some permanent damage before he is 
slapped down by the end of the book. Probably not extensive damage. But 
permanent.

12. Snape's behavior will be such as to completely destroy any secure 
feelings the kids or the reader may be harboring as to where his real 
loyalties lie.

13. No one will know whose side Percy is really on, either.

14. Harry will lose yet another "legacy" advantage he believes he has. In 
return, he will either gain or learn about one that he has not ever 
considered.

15. Ron will continue to act like an insensitive git for much of the book, 
but will manage do something to save the day that no one else could have 
pulled off. Or pulled off as well. He may begin to get some glimmering of his 
"specialty" in this book. If not, in book 6.

16. Hermione will discover that she has made a serious blunder and have to 
pick up the pieces and recover lost ground.

17. We may *finally* get some idea of just what Ginny's personality *is*.

18. We can HOPE that we will finally get some idea of what Lily's personality 
was. (Promises, promises...)

19. Harry will end up having to give evidence of something at the MoM.

20. The Twins will provide distraction from some important detail relating to 
somethig that will, consequently, take us by surprise.

21. Some small piece of information will come from a ghost. Possibly Peeves. 
Not necessarily. (If not book 5 then in one of the other final books.)

22. *Something* in the book will hark back to PS/SS. Possibly parselmouth, 
possibly Flamel, possibly something else altogether.

23. The chief public conflict of this book will be related to getting the MoM 
to admit that Voldemort really is back. The book will end with the MoM 
finally capitulating to the reality of this information. Most likely cause 
for this capitulation will be the unequivocal news of the death of Albus 
Dumbledore defending the school. If this happens, the Dark Mark *will* be 
invoked over it. Somehow Cornelius Fudge managed to survive any attempts to 
dislodge him from office. It will become evident to Dumbledore's organization 
that Voldemort has Fudge firmly in his pocket. I'm not certain whether it 
will be clear whether he is a knowing collaborator, however.

24. Harry will escape some plot to kill or capture him, but this one will not 
be so sucessful as the last one. He takes less personal damage than he did in 
the graveyard.

25. I doubt that Pettigrew will be much on stage. I think the Marauders' 
unfinished business may be the central conflict of book 6.

-JOdel


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