[HPforGrownups] A theory of Lupin's transformation

[Sushi]

No: HPFGUIDX 51031

         Maria wrote:

>I don't hesitate to say, however, that Lupin *should* have remembered 
>about the full moon, especially since Snape himself reminded Lupin of the 
>potion he needed to take when they were having that jolly one-sided 
>conversation in the Shack, but I can understand it and I do forgive him.


         I have to disagree here.  Taking astronomy and phases of the moon 
into consideration, either Remus or Severus screwed up big time.

         The full moon does not rise at sunset.  It rises at noon, and sets 
at midnight, meaning that Lupin would have been susceptible at any point 
between those two times.  The only logical explanation I've got is that the 
dose is effective for somewhere between 24 and 36 hours (since Snape 
brought it in during the afternoon on the Hogsmeade day), and it just 
happened to wear off as they were leaving the Shack.  Severus brought it 
within the conscripted time limit, but there was no werewolf to take 
it.  This leads to two possible conclusions:

         1. Remus screwed up.  Remus really, really screwed up.  Unless he 
honestly believed that a conspiracy that had gone on for twelve years could 
be sorted in less than an hour, there's no way to forgive what could have 
been a much, much larger disaster.  Reliance on Sirius to hold him off 
can't be argued, as if the transformation had taken place in the Shack he 
might have ripped any of them to shreds before Sirius could transform.

         2.  Severus screwed up by not bringing the potion earlier in the 
day.  However, he had no idea that Lupin was going to jaunt off to the 
Shrieking Shack an hour before he needed to take his potion.  So we can 
forgive him.  Sort of.

         In my opinion, the bulk of the blame falls on Remus.  He should 
have known better.  (You have to take into account, too, that even though 
he saw Pettigrew being taken into the tunnel via the map he had no way of 
knowing that Sirius was trustworthy.  For all he knew, they might have both 
been in on it.)  It's a good example of good intentions leading straight to 
Hell.

         I'm not anti-Remus, btw, I'm just trying to look at the situation 
logically. :)  Sorry if this is out of turn or has been discussed before.

Sushi, who actually likes Fuzzbutt (as she's dubbed him in her head - long 
story, don't ask)


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